David Higgins

Link: 2007 results

1 Ceann Comhairle
2 Fianna Fáil
1 Sinn Féin
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cavan-Monaghan was established in 1977 and being a border constituency it has often voted republican. Fianna Fáil has often returned 3/5 seats and in 1981 the hunger striker Kieran Doherty was elected as an independent with the Anti H-Block group. In 1997 Sinn Féin’s Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin was elected on the first count and he cruised into the first seat in 2002 and 2007. I have no doubt that he will bring home one seat for Sinn Féin in 2012.

As mentioned this is a strong constituency for Fianna Fáil and they have always polled well, sometimes breaking the 50% barrier. In 2007 they polled 37% which was below their national average and they won 2 seats: Brendan Smith, Agriculture Minister from Cavan and Margaret Conlon newly elected TD from county Monaghan.

Cavan-Monaghan was a 4 seat constituency in 2007 because of the Ceann Comhairle Rory O’Hanlon, father of the well known comedian Ardal O’Hanlon, best known for his role as Father Dougal McGuire in Father Ted.

Cavan-Monaghan will be fought as a 5 seater in 2012 and therefore I predict that Fianna Fáil will hold both thier seats. The party polled 29% in Monaghan and 35% in Cavan in the local elections in 2009 and although their vote has dropped significantly nationwide, they are well placed to scrape in with their incumbents here.

Fine Gael is almost certain to take two seats here in 2012 due to the opening up of a 5th seat plus the rise in Fine Gael’s vote. The incumbent TD Seymour Crawford will retain his seat and he will likely bring in Senator Joe O’Reilly who narrowly missed out on the last seat in 2007.

Even during the Spring Tide of 1992 Labour did not gain a seat here and I don’t believe any Gilmore Gale will help them either. A lack of party infrastructure and not one single councillor in any of the two counties means that they will only serve as transfers to Fine Gael.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – Brendan Smith and Margaret Conlon
2 Fine Gael – Seymour Crawford and Joe O’Reilly
1 Sinn Féin – Caoimhghin O Caolain

Upset Prediction

Looking at the 2009 local elections, Fine Gael polled an impressive 45.64% in Cavan and 29.85% in Monaghan. This puts them at roughly 38% across the constituency. If they can boost their vote in Monaghan into the 40% range, like Cavan, then they are in the running for a 3rd seat. As mentioned, the Labour candidate will almost certainly be eliminated and this will provide a large chunk of transfers that I believe will go almost exclusively to Fine Gael.

It’s also less likely, but possible, that the elimination of a 3rd Fine Gael candidate could provide the sufficient transfers to help a Labour candidate over the line. Of course, it all depends on who they run. Labour won’t get anywhere without a strong team of canvassers and a high profile candidate across both counties.

This upset will only happen if Fianna Fáil’s vote drops further below 30% and if one of the two incumbents has a significantly higher vote than the other. In 2007 Brendan Smith polled over 50% higher than Margaret Conlon so it’s possible although it must be noted that Fianna Fáil’s vote has dropped the most in Cavan therefore I see both TDs votes being closer together in 2012.

Link: 2007 results

3 Fianna Fáil
1 Green Party
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

This 5 seat constituency is a Fianna Fáil stronghold. 47% of the vote gave them three safe seats in 2007 with two TDs elected on the first count. Since the establishment of the constituency in 1948 Fianna Fáil’s vote has never dropped below 40% and it is often in the high 40’s or even over 50%, as was seen in 2002, giving them 3 out of 4 seats when the Ceann Comhairle Seamus Pattison was automatically elected to the first seat. It’s for these reasons that Fianna Fáil will probably return 2 seats to Carlow-Kilkenny in 2012.

The Green Party will not retain their seat here next time. Mary White only received 8% of the vote last time with transfers helping her over the line. The Green Party, like Fianna Fáil will be starved of transfers next time and this will ensure the loss of Mary White’s seat. The most recent opinion polls have the Greens at 2% nationwide.

From 1961-2002 Labour had a seat in this constituency and their recent boost in the polls means that they will secure at least one seat in 2012. The locals in 2009 showed their support in both counties at around 18%, more than enough for a seat. 16.6% is the quota in a 5 seat constituency.

Fine Gael made a mess of their campaign here in 2007. With a vote of 30% they failed to elect 2 TDs even though they only needed an extra 3% in transfers. As a result of bad management the young Senator John Paul Phelan lost out to Mary White of the Greens. However, recent opinion polls have Fine Gael polling at 33% nationwide therefore 2 seats will be very manageable in 2012.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward
2 Fine Gael – Big Phil Hogan and John Paul Phelan
1 Labour – Whoever they choose will get a seat.

Upset Prediction

The local elections showed Fine Gael polling at 39% which is above their national poll. If Fine Gael can break into the 40%+ range then they have a shot at a third seat. However, this depends on a further drop in Fianna Fáil support and a split of their vote on election day. It would also require transfers from many other opposition parties.

It’s also possible for Labour to take a second seat. In 1992, during the Spring Tide, Seamus Pattison received 1.48 of a quota with no running mate to transfer too. 2 seats for Labour or 3 seats for Fine Gael is not impossible.

Firstly, it has to be said that I have no opinion whatsoever on Stag Hunting. This is a practice enjoyed by rural people, and not by a suburban man like myself. It’s for rural people and rural TDs to comment on rural issues. Therefore, it annoys me that a city man like John Gormley would seek to interfere with an issue he has little experience in, whether you are in favour or against the bill. Also it pains me that at a time when our people are in such economic distress that the Minister would seek to tend to our animals instead of our people. It’s clear where the Green Party’s priorities lie.

Today during the second stage Dáil debate on the Wildlife (Amendment) Bill 2010, numerous Fianna Fáil TDs spoke out against the ministers proposals. Their reasons centred on the effect to their local economies and there was much defence of animal welfare along with concerns about rural life. The following FF TDs spoke against the bill:

Mary Wallace – Meath East
Mattie McGrath – Tipperary South
Johnny Brady – Meath West
Thomas Byrne – Meath East
Sean Power – Kildare South

Fine Gael TD James Bannon said that he would regard the TDs as hypocrites if they didn’t vote against the legislation next Tuesday. I couldn’t agree more.

However, we all know that they will vote in favour of the bill because that’s what Fianna Fáil TDs do. They’ll speak up for their constituency but ultimately they’ll vote against their people. It’s the FF way of trying to please everyone at the same time. If you stand for everything then you stand for nothing!

With both Labour and Fine Gael now polling in and around 30% in the opinion polls it’s important that we look deep into both party’s policy documents and policy positions on all the major issues in Ireland today.

Labour may have a strong uppercut with knockout one-liners and visible anger in the Dáil, led by Eamon Gilmore, however do they have a plan to save the country?

Both parties’ websites have policy pages. Labour’s is their “Our ideas and Policies” page while Fine Gael has a “recent policy catalogue” on its site. I have drawn from both these pages to compare the two parties.

Public Sector

Let’s first jump back to last year’s budget and to the thorny issue of public sector pay. Labour is well known as a political wing for the trade union movement and thus their pre-budget proposal was lacking in specific detail. Both Fine Gael and Labour committed to the government’s reduction of €1.3bn in the public sector pay bill however Labour only gave an aspiration to achieve this reduction through negotiations.

Fine Gael, on the other hand, came out with an extensive and detailed alternative budget that gave detailed breakdowns of where the money would come from. This specified that the €1.3bn would be made by a direct cut in pay to those earning above €30,000 in the public sector. There was no aspiration or hope for the future, just hard figures that spelled out the reality. Fine Gael even went above the €1.3bn suggested and proposed a further €500m reduction in the public sector pay bill through redundancies in the HSE, CIE and through the closing down of wasteful quangos.

Next, we come to the Croke Park deal, a sweet guarantee that ensures not a single pay cut or forced redundancy in the public sector unless there is a further deterioration in the economy. Seems pretty fair to me and that’s why Fine Gael has come out in favour of the proposal. We haven’t engaged in a massive campaign to promote the deal, or to influence union members. We’ve simply stated our position on the matter, a position the public are entitled to know.

However Labour have ducked and dodged this issue right from the beginning. They will not state any position on the deal and if we are to take their members view we can see that two motions were passed at this year’s party conference calling for the restoration of the budget pay cuts and an abolition of the pension levy! That’s the only position I’ve seen from Labour on this issue and so I am led to conclude that this is their policy position on the matter.

Banking

Labour and Fine Gael have roughly the same view on this issue, the establishment of a state run investment bank. This is the good bank option, as opposed to the government’s bad bank, NAMA. Fine Gael announced this policy first and then Labour followed suit months later with an almost identical proposal.

The main difference between the two parties is that Labour favours an ideologically lead nationalisation of the banks. This would be catastrophic for the banks because ultimately a bank belongs free in the marketplace. It’s almost like releasing an animal back into the wild where it belongs, with all the other animals. Keeping a bank nationalised is like keeping an animal in captivity.

Stimulus

Labour has no known policy for a stimulus package for the economy while Fine Gael has a plan to create over 100,000 jobs in the energy, communications and water sectors. It’s called NewERA and it’s a costed and well thought out plan to improve our infrastructure and create employment in the process. Sadly, once again Labour fails to even produce a plan on this, let alone to include specifics costings of their plan.

Health

I have to give Labour some credit in this area. They were the first party to endorse the principal of universal healthcare back in 2001. Fine Gael has since come around to the concept and has adopted a different model based on the Dutch system. The fundamental difference here again is specifics. The Fine Gael proposal has plenty of detail and they’ve even created a dedicated website to explain their policy and what it will provide to the public. Labour continues to only support the principal and it seems they simply want a full bureaucratic public healthcare system that has plagued our system and other health systems in the UK, France and elsewhere in Europe.

The Dutch model means that everyone has private health coverage, it has ended hospital waiting lists and the Fine Gael plan proposes FREE GP care for all, while keeping healthcare spending at its present levels. This can be done by cutting out all the managerial waste in the HSE and by employing competition between insurance companies. Fine Gael sees the benefit of the free market while Labour still remains in its backward mode of socialism and state control.

Education

Education is a huge priority for Fine Gael. Following the budget in December, Education Spokesman Brian Hayes organised large demonstrations against the removal of special needs teachers from a school in Tallaght. This school had 2/3 of its staff removed, in what can only be described as a heartless budget.

As well as protecting the vulnerable in our education system Fine Gael has two key proposals in the third level sector. The first is the re-introduction of third level fees. Our principal is that no student should pay at the door but instead pay after they have completed college. This would be a student loan system similar to many other countries across Europe and in the US. It’s fair to the students and it provides much needed funds to colleges and universities and this will maintain a high standard of facilities and service into the future.

Sadly the Labour party won’t budge on this issue. They aspire to a completely free third level sector, something that is neither practical nor affordable. Since free third level access was introduced in the 1990s it has only served to give higher income families an easy ride while it has not lead to a higher participation rate among lower income families. With Fine Gael’s proposal, supports can be given to those who need it, while those who can pay, pay.

Fine Gael has also recognised the economic benefits of overseas students coming to study in Irish universities. Simple measures that are outlined in their policy document would lead to tens of thousands of more students coming here each year.

Labour also has a policy document called “Priorities in Education”. Again, it’s another document that is purely aspirational and it doesn’t take any regard to our huge deficit and national debt. It even calls for an increase in education spending and to make our spending on education higher than European norms! We just don’t have the money to do that. I agree with Labour’s views on the separation of Church and school however otherwise it’s a completely useless document.

Half of the document is “Labour’s school for the 21st Century”. Firstly this school isn’t theirs, it’s designed by an architecture firm and it’s nothing new! My school in Knocklyon, built in 2000 and other schools like Malahide Community School have almost identical designs. Labour thinks it’s looking to the future, but it’s actually a decade behind! This cross section is almost identical to my school.

This is my view of last week’s leadership heave against Enda Kenny. Unfortunately the general public don’t see it this way however I strongly believe that Fine Gael has shown nothing but strength this week.

Could you say that anyone in Fine Gael showed weakness? I think not.

First I come to Richard Bruton. He’s probably the hardest to defend. He was flawed in the way he approached the confidence motion and the timing was awful. On the week of Brian Cowen’s confidence motion Bruton decides to declare civil war within the Fine Gael party. I accept Dennis Naughten’s reasoning that there’s never a bad time to make a right decision but there could have been a better time to make the move.

However, even then, Richard showed strength by standing up to his leader. Many within the party are fond of Enda and rightly so. He has brought unity to the party and electoral success, however in the wider public perception Kenny is not fit to lead the country. This has been made clear in both opinion polls and in discussions on the doorsteps and on internet forums over the past few years.

Many approaches have been taken to Kenny’s public appearance but to no avail. The general public still see him as weak, wooden and a bit of a bog-man superculchie (a view only found in urban areas, I might add). Bruton tapped into this public mood and he acted on it. We always complain that governments don’t listen to the people and that they don’t do what the people want, even though they are elected to do so. Bruton showed true political leadership this week by going with the public view as opposed to the party view.

Next we must judge the Fine Gael frontbench and those who backed Bruton. Again, they stood up to an unpopular leader and went with the public mood and that must be admired. This was a clear show of strength and it proves that Kenny had chosen a frontbench who knew how to serve the public interest and the public’s view.

Many now question the future of these “rebels” or “dissidents” however I feel that just because they voted “no confidence” in Enda, doesn’t automatically mean that they don’t have confidence in him. I know it’s hard to digest but it’s really quite simple. They think that Kenny is great but they just feel that Bruton is a little bit better.

Finally we must judge Enda and thankfully this is one area where the media has found consensus and where it has finally portrayed Kenny in a positive light. Everyone agrees that Kenny was decisive, he showed charisma during the debate and he came out champion at the end. Through the whole heave he showed strength and this is all the more reason why people should view him as a strong future Taoiseach. Sadly I believe that his negative perception will not ever be changed but we must work together as a party to make the most amount of gains at the next general election under his leadership.

It’s my belief that the divisions in the party are small and that this heave only shed a public light on existing divisions between members of the parliamentary party. It’s important that Kenny welcomes back most, if not all of the “rebels” and that he shows a united front to the electorate.

There’s two years until the next general election and that’s plenty of time to rebuild with everyone looking stronger already.

On Bailout Tuesday last, the government told us how much of OUR money it was giving to the banks. Anglo Irish Bank, a small business bank is set to get the largest bailout, €18billion.

Much of the debate now focuses on how to deal with Anglo. Let it go to the wall or prop it up. It’s argued that letting it fail now would cost more to the taxpayer. “It’s too big to fail”.

This is a worthy discussion, however we need a bit of perspective here. Why are we bailing it out in the first place???

The government is gaining praise internationally because it is making the “tough decisions”. Bullshit!!

Maybe if Fianna Fáil and the PDs hadn’t let this happen in the first place, we wouldn’t have to bail them out.

People within banking have been saying since 2004 that the system was rotten. Easy credit allowed billions to be lent out with little chance of that money being returned.

Even in 2007 Michael Somers, then head of the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), told an Oireachtas committee that Anglo was in trouble, so he was reluctant to deposit money with it.

Somers was one of the brightest people working in government yet nobody would listen to him. Fianna Fáil didn’t have the balls to stop the madness before it was too late. And of course, 2007 was an election year!!

So, maybe FF have it right this time, maybe bailing out Anglo is our only option. BUT, who gave us this option in the first place? Who sent us down this one way street?? Fianna Fáil, and don’t you forget it!

Today in Limerick publicans were given the go-ahead to open their doors on Good Friday. The special permission granted by Judge Tom O’Donnell allows pubs to open from 6pm to 11:30pm.

While this is a victory in my view, it’s still not enough, and the law must be changed to allow alcohol to be sold on Good Friday like any other day in the year. Why has the government chosen to enforce a Christian practice on its citizens?

I would accept the statement that Ireland is a Catholic country. Well over 80% of the population identifies with this, and including Protestants, we have a population that is over 90% Christian.

However, Christians have free will, and if they are devout in their religion then they will not go to the pub anyway! Closing pubs on Friday will only lead to a loss of business from non-Christians, and it affects more casual Christians who would choose to drink on Good Friday.

It’s time we moved away from church control in this country, and away from laws that restrict an Irish persons right to have a drink. The most recent licensing laws stop the sale of alcohol at 10pm in supermarkets and off-licences! Great, so I’m just going to buy my drink before then, and drink it anyway. It’s unacceptable that the government has attacked liberty and freedom in this way. I don’t see myself buying cans after 10 o’clock, but if I did I should have the right to do so.

If I was in government I would remove this law, and I would allow all pubs nationwide to open on Good Friday, and on any other day they like!

A passport is a human right of any citizen.

It proves nationality, but more importantly it’s the means by which we travel in and out of this island. Without a passport you cannot go on holidays, you cannot make business trips and you can’t even emigrate to find work.

450,000 people in this country are out of work. It’s bad enough that they’ve lost their jobs, and it’s even worse because there are no jobs for them here. Now, to compound the problem, the unemployed must queue for a passport overnight, and they may not even get one because of the selfish actions of those who still have a job!

The CPSU’s industrial action on the passport office in Molesworth Street is not hitting the government in any way. It is only attacking the people that they claim to protect, the “ordinary working people”.

It is now reported that over 50,000 passport applications remain unprocessed in the system. The industrial action is primarily to blame for this, but it is not the only cause of the problem.

There are only three machines in the country that make passports! What’s more startling to learn is that two of those machines are now broken! However, let’s assume that a passport machine only works an eight hour day, like the average unionised worker. Surely, when there is a threefold reduction in the number of machines available then we can simply increase by three fold the productivity of the machine.

What I’m simply saying is, have the passport machine running 24/7 to clear the backlog, it’s that simple. However, we need workers to operate the machine and God forbid that any public servant should work “unsociable hours”.

People have lost thousands of Euro because they’ve missed their flights, and we must ask the question whether the government or the unions are liable to pay compensation. Today, Fine Gael TD Alan Shatter called for the CPSU to pay for any compensation claims. I assume by his comments that the Department of Foreign Affairs might have successful compensation claims to deal with. I hope the unions pay the full cost of other actions!

This crisis also raises the question, should we privatise passport production?

I’d be firmly in favour of this proposal. Private firms cut out the waste that is a cancer on our public services. They would run the passport office efficiently and they would get passports to citizens with minimal waiting times. Obviously, there is the risk that the private firm would use this facility for malicious purposes however if the government provides the same oversight as it does the passport office presently then there is no risk.

Either we privatise the system or we just face the same crisis the next time the unions don’t get what they want. We are citizens of Ireland and a passport is our right. Don’t let a vested interest take control of your life, and don’t let them hold you for random!

This week I attended the Fine Gael National conference in Killarney, Co Kerry. Over 2000 delegates were present for the event held in the Malton Hotel.

I arrived Friday evening and the conference began with a Young Fine Gael gathering in one of the smaller conference rooms. President of YFG Barry Walsh spoke about the great success the party has had over this past year and he pointed out how Fine Gael is the only party with the right policies to lead the next government.

He dismissed the other youth parties such as ógra Fianna Fáil, ógra Sinn Féin, and Labour Youth who he described as “champagne socialists”. I couldn’t agree more and the crowds laughter and applause shows that they agreed too. However Enda Kenny who was now present did not laugh. He knows that he will probably have Eamon Gilmore as his Tánaiste in the next government and I think he would prefer if we did’t tarnish our fellow opposition, even if it’s tempting to do so.

Enda Kenny then addressed the gathering and he spoke forcefully and passionately on issues like Youth Unemployment, education, emigration and the wider economy. I have to say that Kenny gives much better speeches to smaller groups than he does to a large hall with TV cameras. He’s also better off the cuff than with a pre-written speech.

The next morning I was seated front row in the main hall for the discussion on jobs and the economy. “Getting Ireland back to work” was the main slogan and theme of the conference.

Seeing all our TDs and Senators who work on economic issues on the one stage really made me realise how skilled a team we have.

Simon Coveney began proceedings with a speech on his NewERA document, a plan to create over 100,000 jobs by investing in energy, water and broadband infrastructure.

Eddie Hobbs then echoed the need for this investment when he highlighted our aging energy transport network. He said that it’s like having only two parallel motorways and the rest of the routes are bicycle tracks! He also spoke about peak oil and how investing in renewable energy is crucial, now more than ever.

Later on, we heard from my own local TD Olivia Mitchell, spokesperson on arts, sports and tourism. Or should I say “Tourism, Culture and Sport”.  She slated the government’s €10 travel tax and how it is reducing tourism into places like Killarney. She called on the airlines to restore dropped routes if Fine Gael abolished the tax in government.

Finally there was a warm reception to Richard Bruton, our finance spokesman. He made it perfectly clear that we would not support the re-capitalisation of Anglo Irish bank and that the zombie bank should be closed down in an orderly fashion. Taxpayers money should not be thrown into a black hole, he said.

After lunch we made sure we had good seats for the political reform discussion. Phil Hogan gave a taster of the “New Politics” document and then members of the audience could make comments.

Many speakers objected to the abolition of the Seanad and it was good to see a fellow YFGer raise the lowering of the voting age to 16. Sadly this does not feature in the document but it is something I’ll be fighting to change within the party.

Next, I went to a small conference room where the competitiveness of our economy was being discussed. Transport was a key feature of the talk, which called for the privatisation of some bus services, particularly in Dublin. I warmly welcome this as long as a regular and well routed network is maintained in the capital.

The conference went into pause mode in the early evening, due to the rugby match, but at 7pm the loss to Scotland was the last thing on people’s minds. Before the presidential speech, many of our elected representatives led the buildup. Mairead McGuinness MEP hosted the evening, and she provided much humour and entertainment for the delegates. Leo Varadkar, Michael Ring and James Reilly all spoke passionately too.

Leo highlighted the key differences between us and the government, Michael Ring sang the praises of Enda Kenny, and James Reilly gave an emotional endorsement of our health policy and how it will radically transform our health service into a system we can be proud of.

Finally, at 8:30 Enda Kenny entered the room for his presidential address. As mentioned previously, he is not good in front of a television camera and he’s even worse with a prewritten speech, especially if that speech is badly written! As members, we know many of the policy positions so for me his speech was quite boring. However, I would have expected something more lively from him and to be honest I found the buildup more exciting. It was an anti-climax for me.

But, I was impressed by one line. He made it quite clear that any doctor who has not opened all their letters from GPs will not be paid, and that any hospital department that is also not up-to-date, will not be paid either. This makes perfect sense to me, and it is just another area where Fine Gael shows responsibility and common sense.

This week Fine Gael is expected to unveil its plans for a “New Republic”. The policy document, which is yet to be released has been extensively leaked to the media so we have a general idea of what to expect.

The plans make at least five fundamental changes to our political system and the idea is to make all the changes on the same day in what has been dubbed as “super referendum”.

The first problem I foresee with this plan is that so many changes are made in one vote. The First Lisbon Treaty referendum proved that the Irish electorate, when unsure, will reject something that they do not fully understand. Any one of these proposals could become a sticking point for public opposition, and any such referendum could easily be lost even when the rest of the proposals are worthy of acceptance.

The first, and most radical change proposed is the abolition of the Seanad. In principle, I agree with this proposal. Many Scandinavian countries have no difficulty with one parliament, in fact many countries with one parliament are more advanced than us. However, the abolition of one chamber needs to be met with a significant reforms in the other. This is where I feel the Fine Gael plan is lacking.

It is welcome to see the introduction of a list system to elect TDs, however, it seems that only 12 to 15 TDs will be elected this way. Also, if the political parties themselves are deciding on who is on their list then there is no benefit to democracy. Only party hacks, who a loyal enough to the system will be chosen. We need an open list system with more TDs elected this way to make a better change.

I welcome the proposal to reduce the term of the presidency from 7 to 5 years. While this will see a presidential election race more often, savings will be made by running this election alongside the European and local elections. It makes sense, but I feel that we are missing an opportunity to reform the office of the President. We spend millions every year on having a president, yet he/she has limited power and is, in effect, subservient to the government of the day. Either we move to a presidential system similar to the United States and France, or we abolish the office altogether.

Finally, it is good to see the rejection from the plan, of a proposal to introduce gender quotas. The measure was defeated at Fine Gael’s parliamentary party meeting last week. Dublin South East TD, Lucinda Creighton spoke forcefully against the proposal and I agree with her comments. Gender quotas would undermine existing female TDs, who have fought hard for their positions and it would provide an easy route for unsuitable women to enter the Dáil.

The Fine Gael national conference is this weekend and it is likely that the full policy document will be released by then.