David Higgins

After last month’s Fine Gael Frontbench re-shuffle I gave my reactions on this site. One month on it’s clear to me that Kenny has picked an excellent team and I’m more excited than ever for a General Election.

Michael Noonan has so far proven himself to be indispensable in his role as Finance Spokesman. He is a straight talker and that was made very clear in an interview he gave this past weekend to the Irish Independent. He is not afraid of telling the truth that 40,000 public servants will have to be laid off and that semi-state companies must be sold in order to sort out our public finances. He is a breath of fresh air to the role but he also brings great experience having marked Ray McSharry, Bertie Ahern and Charlie McCreevy as Finance spokesman before. As I’ve said before I await this years budget with great anticipation. It will be a tough budget, but at least Noonan’s budget speech will give some comfort and entertainment to people watching at home.

I was also thrilled to see Noonan leading the attack against the government when he called Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern “a nasty little man”. Ahern is the Minister who banned headshops and who has re-introduced blasphemy into the law.

Sadly some have not welcomed the new Frontbench, particularly the appointment of Frank Feighan to the position of Spokesman on Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs. Frank doesn’t have fluent Irish but he is now taking lesson to improve his fluency. At present he can’t hold an interview with Irish speaking media.

But here’s the thing, I don’t care! We all speak the English language in this country and if the Gaeltacht communities need to raise issues with our spokesman then they can do so through English. It’s not that hard. Someone made the point that Feighan can’t read reports made in Irish, failing to notice that all reports can be obtained in English too! This is just another populist attack on Fine Gael by lazy journalists who couldn’t be arsed doing some deep research on the real issues of the day.

In my original post I was unhappy at the appointment of Leo Varadkar to the Position of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources. I felt he should have been given a bigger role however I’m now satisfied that he has a huge part to play. The debate in this sector now centres around the sale of semi-state assets and there is no better man than Leo to lead our policies. He has been working very hard for the past month and he recently published an analysis of pay and costs in the semi-state sector.

It’s a very interesting read and I’m also looking forward to what Richard Bruton will make of his new responsibility of public sector reform. At the MacGill Summer School he gave an excellent preview of Fine Gael’s vision for a smart state. The full document on public sector reform is due out by the end of the year.

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cork South West is a large 3 seat constituency that is the most southern in Ireland. It covers the Local Electoral Areas of Bantry, Skibbereen and Bandon and it was first contested in 1961. Labour held a seat here from 1961 to 1981 however they have not held a seat here since. Fianna Fáil has always held one seat here except in 2002 when they capitalised on the Fine Gael meltdown by taking a second seat. Fine Gael has always had two seats here with the exception of 2002 and before 1981 when Labour held a seat.

Fianna Fáil’s vote in 2007 was 42% and yet they only won one seat. This means that even if their 2009 local vote of 30% is replicated in a General Election they will easily retain the seat held by new TD Christy O’Sullivan. In fact, if there is no running mate then O’Sullivan will quite easily top the poll. This is unlikely however and we’ll probably see Senator Denis O’Donovan join O’Sullivan on the ticket in 2012. O’Donovan will provide the transfers to get O’Sullivan over the line.

Senator Michael McCarthy will almost certainly represent Labour on the ticket again in 2012 and if Eamon Gilmore’s optimism is anything to go by Labour feels that they can win a seat here again. I’m afraid this won’t happen. While McCarthy polled an impressive 9.64% in 2007, the Labour party itself only polled 9% in last year’s local elections. And if we look at the Spring Tide of 1992 the party only managed to win 11% of the vote. For Labour to have any chance of taking a seat off one of the two sitting Fine Gael TDs McCarthy will have to out poll at least one of them. This requires a vote of about 18%, a doubling of McCarthy’s vote, something that is highly unlikely.

Fine Gael already has two seats in the constituency and it’s more than likely that they will retain both their seats. Fine Gael polled only 36% in 2007, yet they managed two seats. In 2009 their vote in the constituency was 42%, an almost guarantee of two seats in 2012.

The main question is whether the two incumbent TDs will contest again. Jim O’Keeffe and P.J. Sheehan have represented this constituency since 1977 and 1981 respectively. O’Keeffe will be 71 years old in 2012 and Sheehan will be 79! Either way, whoever runs on the Fine Gael ticket will be ensured a seat.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – P.J. Sheehan and Jim O’Keeffe or new local councillors
1 Fianna Fáil – Christy O’Sullivan

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork South Central is a small urban constituency with 5 seats. Since its establishment in 1981 the constituency has generally had the same voting pattern. At least 2 Fianna Fáil seats (3 in 1997 and 2002), 2 Fine Gael seats (The PDs took one of their seats between 1987 and 1994, plus The Green Party took a seat in 2002) and one Labour seat (no seat in 1997 and 2002 due to FF gain).

Fianna Fáil will have serious trouble retaining both seats in 2012 and I very much doubt that they will. In 2007 the party’s vote was at 44% however in last year’s local elections Fianna Fáil only managed to get 22% of the vote, an almost perfect halving of the vote. If we translate this into seats, 2 becomes 1.

The real question we need to ask is who will lose out. The sitting FF TDs are Minister for Foreign Affairs Michael Martin and first time backbencher Michael McGrath. In theory Michael Martin should be safe due to his high profile Ministry but on the other hand, a backbencher like McGrath has all day to canvass and he has a great advantage at the age of 33. Young candidates can generally pull in votes just for being young.

Some opinion polls in the constituency have shown McGrath having a lead over Minister Martin but I’m very skeptical of these local polls that have emerged lately. It’ll be close on the day but I think Michael Martin will win in the end.

Labour are no doubt thinking that they have a real shot at 2 seats here, but I very much doubt that this will happen. In 2009 their local vote was only at nearly 16%. This will give a safe seat to Ciaran Lynch however it won’t be enough to bring in a running mate. Fine Gael barely gained a second seat here in 2007 with a vote of 28%. Labour will be more favourable for transfers from other left-wing parties like Sinn Féin however unless they are well into the mid 20% range, they have very little chance at a second seat.

It’s interesting to note that in 2007 Dan Boyle’s transfers (Green Party) went more in favour of Fine Gael than Labour. Nationwide it is usually the opposite. Fine Gael got more transfers even after one of their 3 candidates had already been eliminated. If Dan Boyle runs again his transfers will probably do the same in 2012. I believe this favourability for transfers will help Fine Gael win 3 seats in this constituency.

In 1997 Fianna Fáil, who are usually very unpopular for transfers, managed to win 3 seats with only 42.6% of the vote. Fine Gael polled 39% in the local elections, so with only a modest increase in the vote, they will gain a third seat in 2012.

Another advantage to Fine Gael is the position of their 3 candidates. They are evenly spread across the constituency, or at least their former council seats are spread out. Simon Coveney TD was elected in Carrigaline, Deirdre Clune TD from Cork South East and Senator Jerry Buttimer from Cork South West. Assuming they stick to their home turfs and mind their vote then we should see 3 Fine Gael TDs from here in 2012.

2012 Prediction

3 Fine Gael – Simon Coveney, Deirdre Clune and Jerry Buttimer
1 Fianna Fáil – Michael Martin
1 Labour – Ciaran Lynch

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism. Labour also brings in a celebrity running mate. This only leaves Fine Gael with two seats.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin as Taoiseach. This massive profile ensures a second seat for McGrath. In this case the status quo remains with the same 5 TDs as in 2007.

Eamon Gilmore has once again come out and stated that he will not enter co-alition with Fianna Fáil after the next general election. He’s right to do so. No government that has caused such destruction to our economy should be afforded the support of other parties in 2012, it would be unjust.

However Eamon is not the first party leader to state that he wants Fianna Fáil out of office.

In the 1980s Dessie O’Malley’s establishment of the PDs originated from his dislike of Fianna Fáil, yet by 1989 Dessie was in coalition with them. The same occurred in 1992 when the Labour party doubled their seats in the Spring Tide on a rhetoric that was completely anti-Fianna Fáil. We know that Dick Spring became Tánaiste that same year. He bit the bullet and chose power over honour. And finally we all know what happened in 2007. To make up the numbers the Green Party accepted the reigns of power. Trevor Sergent gracefully resigned as leader of the party because he had made a promise that he would not enter co-alition with Fianna Fáil. At least he knew what he did was wrong.

While I have a passionate dislike for John “The Bull” O’Donoghue, he proved his worth two weeks ago when he spoke about Eamon Gilmore in relation to the Dog Breeding bill

If I may be excused the analogy, Deputy Gilmore reminds me of a gadfly around the tail of an old cow. He circles, one does not hear him, sometimes he might land but one does not see him land, but all the time one knows he is there and, in the final analysis, one will never quite know what he is up to, where he is going or how he will get there.

That appears to be a very popular stance to take in modern day Irish politics. It amounts to tut-tutism by the finest tut-tuter in the House and I am certain that a man who stands for nothing will fall for anything.

Fall for anything? Fall for Fianna Fáil maybe?

Gilmore can be as forceful as he likes but when his options are laid out after 2012 he’ll have two clear choices. Two-thirds of the cabinet seats with Fine Gael and the position of Tánaiste or half the seats and a rotating Taoiseach under Fianna Fáil. If history has shown anything, we know which option he’ll choose.

I’m sickened by a news story that has emerged about a family seeking public housing in Ashford, County Wicklow. A women and her four children were granted a house however they have been forcibly removed simply because the father and husband is a convicted sex offender. The father does not live with the family, it is only the wife and children. The family of five is now living with relatives in overcrowded conditions. What’s most startling about this situation is the support Labour councillors have given to the mob of residents that forced the family out.

When the residents learnt that the innocent family would be moving in, they immediately organised a protest up to Friday two weeks ago. The house was burnt down on Sunday night. One resident defended their actions.

We weren’t a mob. We decided to keep vigil. The protest finished on Friday morning, we were just keeping a vigil and making sure that nobody did move in

As far as I’m concerned somebody knows who burnt down the house and it’s likely to be one of the residents. I’ve no evidence to prove this but there’s no one else who would have had the motive! It’s also shocking that the residents were keeping a constant vigil and not one of them spotted and reported who entered the house to set it ablaze.

An 88-year-old disabled woman who lived next door has also been forced out of her specially adapted home because it is now in a dangerous condition.

If that fire had spread quickly enough the old lady could have been seriously injured or killed in the blaze. The risk of this happening is much higher than the risk of this man re-offending. He has been clean for 18 years and having been independently assessed he is now described as “low-risk”. There isn’t a non risk, he is as safe as possible! Also with residents on such high alert the man would hardly offend in that estate, especially as he is already the prime suspect by default. All this is besides the point. He won’t be living there!!!

The arsonist in this case is a greater threat to this community and I think the residents should focus their attention on finding this man instead of attacking an innocent family!

Councillor Conal Kavanagh and his Labour colleagues have lead the charge against this innocent family on a political level. They have supported the mob throughout and then Kavanagh put a motion down on the council not merely that sex offenders be removed entirely from the Co Wicklow housing list, but that anyone “they consorted with” should be taken off the list. Does this include his friends, his acquaintances, his postman???

I’d warm to the idea of denying the offenders public housing, but this is a step too far.

It’s really about time Labour stopped with their stupid populism. It’s getting out of hand and it’s starting to damage the lives of innocent people.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cork North West is a large 3 seat constituency that is very rural and therefore difficult to canvass. First established in 1981 it has only ever returned TDs from Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Historically Fine Gael would always return 2 seats while Fianna Fáil only ever managed one. However since Bertie Ahern’s victory in the 1997 general election Fianna Fáil have retained 2 out of 3 seats here.

Since 1997 the Fianna Fáil vote has risen steadily. 46% in 1997, 50% in 2002 and 53% in 2007. However we know that since 2007 the Fianna Fáil vote has dropped significantly nationwide, hitting a low of 17% in recent times. While this drop is not proportional in every constituency it’s almost certain that a drop of around 10% has been seen in Cork North West. Even if Fianna Fáil can manage to get 45% of the vote in 2012 they won’t hold both seats.

Throughout the 80′s Fianna Fáil would always win around 45% of the vote but they would never win 2 seats. Even if Fine Gael had less of a vote, PD or Labour transfers always helped a second Fine Gael candidate win a seat.

With Fianna Fáil set to lose one seat it will be very interesting to see which TD loses out. Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation Batt O’Keeffe is a TD here and in 2007 he received 2000 votes less than his constituency colleague Michael Moynihan. Batt decided to run here for the first time after boundary changes forced him out of Cork South Central. For a new candidate he did surprisingly well and he unseated the incumbent TD Donal Moynihan. I think now that he is settled in the constituency and the fact that he is a cabinet minister should help him catch up with Michael Moynihan and retain his seat.

As mentioned Cork North West has always been Fine Gael heartland and there’s no doubt in my mind that Fine Gael will win back a second seat here in 2012. Fine Gael polled 38% here in 2007 and opinion polls now put the party at roughly 5% higher nationwide. Much of this rise has been seen in rural areas as opposed to urban, therefore I estimate the Fine Gael vote to be somewhere around 45%, maybe even higher. Incumbent TD Michael Creed is sure to retain his seat and I’ve no doubt that Cllr Gerard Murphy will be chosen again to run alongside Creed. If Fine Gael doesn’t break 50% then Labour transfers will ensure 2 Fine Gael TDs.

Many would see this as a constituency for Labour to win a seat however I doubt this very much. Even during the Spring Tide of 1992 Bill Cashin only received 14% of the vote when 25% is the quota in a 3 seat constituency. Labour will probably run Martin Coughlan in 2012 however having only won 5% of the vote in 2007 he would need to at least quadruple his vote to be within any chance of a seat. This is unlikely to happen in such a rural constituency when most of Labour’s recent gains have been made in urban areas.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Michael Creed and Gerard Murphy
1 Fianna Fáil – Batt O’Keefe

Upset Predictions

The only upset would be for Batt O’Keefe to lose his seat. Michael Moynihan has all day to canvass and leaflet drop the constituency while Batt is tied up in Dublin with his ministerial duties. If Moynihan can work like a Trojan to get his name out then maybe he has a chance but otherwise O’Keefe’s ministerial profile will help him retain his seat.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork North Central, like it’s neighbouring constituency of Cork East, will prove to be a tightly fought constituency in 2012. However, this will not be a case of opposition vs government candidates but rather a fight between Labour and Fine Gael for the forth and final seat.

Fianna Fáil has no hope of retaining its two seats in Cork North Central but it will probably hold one seat. In 2007 Billy Kelleher had a significant lead over his party colleague Noel O’Flynn. Kelleher served as Minister of State for Labour Affairs from 2007-2009 and he is now Minister of State for Trade and Commerce. This gives his profile a boost and I predict that on the day he will poll well and the elimination of O’Flynn will give him the transfers he needs to retain his seat. In the 2009 local elections Fianna Fáil’s vote was at 20%, just enough for one seat with strong internal transfers.

Fine Gael is certain to return Bernard Allen to the Dáil and it’s likely that Cllr Gerry Kelly will join him on the ticket in 2012. Both candidates are well positioned in the constituency with Allen based in the city and Kelly based in Blarney.

The problem for Fine Gael is that their vote has not moved significantly since 2007, it has remained around 27%-29%. A vote above 30% is required for 2 seats and it will require a lot of hard work on the ground to achieve this.

What may be of optimism to Fine Gael is that this constituency is to gain a large chunk of land from the Mallow electoral area. In this ward Fine Gael received 39% of the vote in 2009. A rough estimate including this area brings their total vote to almost 29% across the constituency in the 2009 local elections.

Labour’s Kathleen Lynch will certainly retain her seat in 2012 and I’ve no doubt that Cllr John Gilroy from Blarney will join her on the ticket under Labour’s 2 seat strategy. He topped the poll in his LEA with 1.20 of a quota and 4,538 first preference votes. Like Fine Gael, Labour is well placed with one candidate in the city (Lynch) and one in Blarney.

The question is which Blarney councillor will join their TDs in Leinster House: Gerry Kelly for Fine Gael or John Gilroy for Labour?

I think Fine Gael will take the last seat by a small margin.

Many would point to other left-wing parties in the constituency as being a source of Labour transfers. Sinn Féin, The Workers Party and the Socialist Party are all prominent in the city however it’s not completely true that they will transfer solely to Labour.

In 2007 Labour received 27% of transfers while Fine Gael received 25%. If Fine Gael can get 30%+ in 2012 and still be favourable for transfers then they will easily beat Labour.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Bernard Allen and Gerry Kelly
1 Fianna Fáil – Billy Kelleher
1 Labour – Kathleen Lynch

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin from Cork. The extra profile for the county leads to a return of support.

3. Fianna Fáil loses both. 2 for Labour and Fine Gael: A double dip recession, further cuts, higher taxes and a surge in unemployment could send their vote lower and then this situation becomes a reality.

4. Left-Wing TD: In 2009, Sinn Féin, Socialists and The Workers Party had a combined vote of 17% the locals. With strong transfers Sinn Féin’s Cllr Jonathan O’Brien or The Socialist Party’s Cllr Mick Barry could take a seat.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork East will prove to be a pivotal constituency in the 2012 general election. The forth and final seat will be a contest between the three big parties and the winner will likely be the overall victor in the national election.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour will each retain one seat in this constituency. Labour’s Sean Sherlock will keep his seat however it’s unclear who will be safe from Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.

Since 1982 this constituency has returned both Michael Ahern and Ned O’Keeffe from Fianna Fáil. Their votes are often close together and in 2007 their votes were less than 300 votes apart. A flip of a coin would be a better judge on who loses out if Fianna Fáil’s vote stays as low as it is. Both TDs have no ministerial positions so it’ll be interesting to see who can win over local votes in the coming months. (They were both junior ministers before)

Fine Gael has two prominent politicians in the constituency: sitting TD and newly appointed front bench member David Stanton and former TD, future husband of Lucinda Creighton and current Senator Paul Bradford. In 1997 they both held seats and in 2002 and 2007 Paul Bradford received more 1st preference votes but David Stanton got the seat on transfers. Stanton’s new role as Defence spokesman increases his profile ever so slightly and this probably puts his support in line with Senator Bradford’s. Once again, too close to call.

As mentioned, the last seat will be tightly fought but I predict that Fine Gael will take the seat.

Looking at the 2009 local elections it shows Fianna Fáil at 20%, Labour at 15% and Fine Gael at 33%. Fianna Fáil’s vote is always below it’s national average in this constituency so Fianna Fáil would have to recover to 40%+ nationwide for 2 seats to ever be imaginable here.

Many would see this as a place for Labour to gain a seat however I dismiss this prediction. Labour has a young TD to take home one seat but he has no clear running mate to win widespread support and Labour needs to break past 30% nationwide for this to happen.

Fine Gael is better placed with two candidates who have a presence in the constituency for over 15 years.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – David Stanton and Paul Bradford
1 Fianna Fáil – Michael Ahern or Ned O’Keeffe
1 Labour – Sean Sherlock

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism. Labour also brings in a celebrity running mate.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin from Cork. The extra profile for the county leads to a return of support.

3. Fianna Fáil loses both. 2 for Labour and Fine Gael: A double dip recession, further cuts, higher taxes and a surge in unemployment could send their vote lower and then this situation becomes a reality. In Midleton the Fianna Fáil vote dropped to 15% last year. If the same drop occurs across the constituency then anything’s possible.

I’m very pleased with the announcement of Fine Gael’s new frontbench today. Many of the talented TDs that opposed him have been retained in prominent positions, while those who got the chop have been replaced by a mixture of experienced and new TDs.

Sean Barrett – Foreign Affairs: It’s very welcome to see Barrett’s return to the frontbench. He served as minister for Defence during the Rainbow co-alition in the 1990s and he had originally announced his retirement in 2002. Having returned to his seat in Dun Laoghaire for the 2007 elections he has been very active in the party of late. He comes across very well and I was impressed at his performance on The Week in Politics last Sunday.

Richard Bruton – Enterprise, Jobs & Economic Planning (including public service reform): Fine Gael can’t win an election without Richard Bruton and it’s great to see his continuation in an economic portfolio. I feel this position is not a demotion for Richard but merely a move sideways. Richard was Minister for Enterprise and Employment during the Rainbow co-alition so he is very suited for this position. I’m also pleased he’s in a role that includes public service reform. It’s rumoured that Bruton produced an excellent proposal called “Smart State” before the leadership heave that included radical reforms of government departments and agencies such as the HSE. I hope his hard work continues.

Simon Coveney – Transport: In his previous role as energy, communications and natural resources spokesman Simon did some excellent work. Producing the NewERA plan he tied all the aspects of his role into one and he deserves great credit for developing this policy almost all on his own. If he can bring the same enthusiasm and energy into the area of transport then we should see some fantastic policy ideas over the coming months and years. It was wise of Kenny not to give him the chop as was rumoured over the past few days.

Michael Noonan – Finance: Noonan has the greatest ministerial service of any Fine Gael TD so he is very suited for the position as finance spokesman. During the Garret Fitzgerald government he served as Minister for Justice and as Minister for Industry and Commerce after a reshuffle. He then served as Minister for Health during the Rainbow co-alition. After Fianna Fáil regained power he took the opposition role of Finance. At every budget his speech was always well received and Noonan has always been regarded for his use of wit and humour. Even though he has been out of the front bench for 8 years I believe he is ready for a return to spotlight politics and he should prove to be a tough opponent of Brian Lenihan.

James Reilly – Deputy Leader & Health & Children: Dr Reilly was very vocal in his support for Enda Kenny during the leadership challenge and his loyalty has been rewarded with the Deputy Leader role. James is only in politics since 2007 so it’ll be interesting to see how he manages as the party’s number 2. I think Phil Hogan has more experience for the role and it was expected that he would get the job, however a need to maintain a large Fine Gael presence in Dublin was the main reason for giving Reilly the position. Reilly continues to be a superb health spokesman and I’ve no doubt he’ll make an excellent Minister too.

Alan Shatter – Justice & Law Reform: While my other local TD Olivia Mitchell has been left out of the frontbench it’s good to see Alan Shatter’s promotion to the role of Justice. Shatter has worked very hard in his role as spokesperson for children and throughout his past 25 years as a legislator and as a TD for Dublin South. I’ve no doubt that he’ll continue to scrutinise government policy and provide alternatives.

Leo Varadkar – Communications, Energy & Natural Resources: This is the appointment that I’m disappointed with. As I’ve mentioned the policies for this portfolio are outlined in NewERA and this leaves little work for Leo to do. Of course he’ll have a fun time sticking it to the Green Minister Eamon Ryan, however Kenny has missed an opportunity to give Leo a position where real policy reforms are yet to be developed. I would have much preferred Leo to be given the role as education spokesman. With respect to Fergus O’Dowd, who is an excellent politician, he is twice the age that Leo is and although he was previously a teacher himself, Leo would be much more in touch with the education system today.

However besides this appointment Kenny has unveiled a solid frontbench. The task now is to put the past to bed and to continue the pressure on the government over the next two years.

Here is the rest of the Frontbench:

• Enda Kenny – Leader
• Catherine Byrne – Older Citizens
• Deirdre Clune – Innovation & Research
• Jimmy Deenihan – Tourism, Culture & Sport
• Andrew Doyle – Agriculture, Fisheries & Food
• Frank Feighan – Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs
• Charlie Flanagan – Children
• Phil Hogan – Environment, Heritage & Local Government
• Paul Kehoe – Chief Whip (with responsibility for political reform)
• Fergus O’Dowd – Education & Skills
• John Perry – Small Business
• Michael Ring – Social Protection
• David Stanton – Defence

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael

Analysis

Clare is one of Ireland’s oldest constituencies, established for the 2nd Dáil in 1921. Until 1959 it was the constituency of Eamon De Valera and former president Patrick Hillary was a TDs here also. During the Spring Tide of 1992 this constituency caused a huge surprise by electing Ireland’s first Muslim TD Moosajee Bhamjee from Labour. He was elected with the slogan “You’ve had all the cowboys, now try an Indian”.

Bhamjee achieved this with a 11.46% vote for Labour and with a large chunk of transfers from Fine Gael who only held one seat out of four seats in 1992. Bhamjee didn’t run in 1997 and the Labour vote dropped to 3%, proving that the vote was primarily a personal one. Labour won 3% in 2002 and then their vote dropped to 1.5% in 2007. Eamon GIlmore’s leadership of the party only helped them achieve 4% of votes in the 2009 local elections although it must be noted that Labour only ran in half of the county’s LEAs. Therefore I estimate their vote at around 8% when you consider their recent rise in popularity.

An optimistic Labour man will tell you that 11% is achievable again and that they can win a seat with this vote. I believe that they won’t. Even if they go above 10% they won’t have enough transfers and many of their recent candidates have been unknown people. It’s only possible if they bring in a high profile candidate such as former independent TD James Breen. Breen is described as “left-wing” and he is still a councillor for Ennis West achieving 1.5 of a quota in 2009. He narrowly missed out at retaining his seat in 2007, losing to a second Fine Gael seat. If Labour can recruit him they have a seat, otherwise no.

Fine Gael polled 35% in 2007, winning 2 seats and in 2009 they polled 34% in the local elections making them the largest party on the county council for the first time in history. Fine Gael is certain to retain both it seats in 2012.

Fianna Fáil has always been strong in Clare. In 1997 they won 3/4 seats and in 2002 and 2007 their vote always ran above their national average. In 2009 they polled 35% and with Tony Killeen being the new Minister for Defence Fianna Fáil should also retain their two seats in 2012.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – Timmy Dooley and Tony Killeen
2 Fine Gael – Pat Breen and Joe Carey

Upset Prediction

As mentioned above, either Labour or an independent has a shot at one of the Fianna Fáil seats.