David Higgins

I’m very pleased with the announcement of Fine Gael’s new frontbench today. Many of the talented TDs that opposed him have been retained in prominent positions, while those who got the chop have been replaced by a mixture of experienced and new TDs.

Sean Barrett – Foreign Affairs: It’s very welcome to see Barrett’s return to the frontbench. He served as minister for Defence during the Rainbow co-alition in the 1990s and he had originally announced his retirement in 2002. Having returned to his seat in Dun Laoghaire for the 2007 elections he has been very active in the party of late. He comes across very well and I was impressed at his performance on The Week in Politics last Sunday.

Richard Bruton – Enterprise, Jobs & Economic Planning (including public service reform): Fine Gael can’t win an election without Richard Bruton and it’s great to see his continuation in an economic portfolio. I feel this position is not a demotion for Richard but merely a move sideways. Richard was Minister for Enterprise and Employment during the Rainbow co-alition so he is very suited for this position. I’m also pleased he’s in a role that includes public service reform. It’s rumoured that Bruton produced an excellent proposal called “Smart State” before the leadership heave that included radical reforms of government departments and agencies such as the HSE. I hope his hard work continues.

Simon Coveney – Transport: In his previous role as energy, communications and natural resources spokesman Simon did some excellent work. Producing the NewERA plan he tied all the aspects of his role into one and he deserves great credit for developing this policy almost all on his own. If he can bring the same enthusiasm and energy into the area of transport then we should see some fantastic policy ideas over the coming months and years. It was wise of Kenny not to give him the chop as was rumoured over the past few days.

Michael Noonan – Finance: Noonan has the greatest ministerial service of any Fine Gael TD so he is very suited for the position as finance spokesman. During the Garret Fitzgerald government he served as Minister for Justice and as Minister for Industry and Commerce after a reshuffle. He then served as Minister for Health during the Rainbow co-alition. After Fianna Fáil regained power he took the opposition role of Finance. At every budget his speech was always well received and Noonan has always been regarded for his use of wit and humour. Even though he has been out of the front bench for 8 years I believe he is ready for a return to spotlight politics and he should prove to be a tough opponent of Brian Lenihan.

James Reilly – Deputy Leader & Health & Children: Dr Reilly was very vocal in his support for Enda Kenny during the leadership challenge and his loyalty has been rewarded with the Deputy Leader role. James is only in politics since 2007 so it’ll be interesting to see how he manages as the party’s number 2. I think Phil Hogan has more experience for the role and it was expected that he would get the job, however a need to maintain a large Fine Gael presence in Dublin was the main reason for giving Reilly the position. Reilly continues to be a superb health spokesman and I’ve no doubt he’ll make an excellent Minister too.

Alan Shatter – Justice & Law Reform: While my other local TD Olivia Mitchell has been left out of the frontbench it’s good to see Alan Shatter’s promotion to the role of Justice. Shatter has worked very hard in his role as spokesperson for children and throughout his past 25 years as a legislator and as a TD for Dublin South. I’ve no doubt that he’ll continue to scrutinise government policy and provide alternatives.

Leo Varadkar – Communications, Energy & Natural Resources: This is the appointment that I’m disappointed with. As I’ve mentioned the policies for this portfolio are outlined in NewERA and this leaves little work for Leo to do. Of course he’ll have a fun time sticking it to the Green Minister Eamon Ryan, however Kenny has missed an opportunity to give Leo a position where real policy reforms are yet to be developed. I would have much preferred Leo to be given the role as education spokesman. With respect to Fergus O’Dowd, who is an excellent politician, he is twice the age that Leo is and although he was previously a teacher himself, Leo would be much more in touch with the education system today.

However besides this appointment Kenny has unveiled a solid frontbench. The task now is to put the past to bed and to continue the pressure on the government over the next two years.

Here is the rest of the Frontbench:

• Enda Kenny – Leader
• Catherine Byrne – Older Citizens
• Deirdre Clune – Innovation & Research
• Jimmy Deenihan – Tourism, Culture & Sport
• Andrew Doyle – Agriculture, Fisheries & Food
• Frank Feighan – Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs
• Charlie Flanagan – Children
• Phil Hogan – Environment, Heritage & Local Government
• Paul Kehoe – Chief Whip (with responsibility for political reform)
• Fergus O’Dowd – Education & Skills
• John Perry – Small Business
• Michael Ring – Social Protection
• David Stanton – Defence

With both Labour and Fine Gael now polling in and around 30% in the opinion polls it’s important that we look deep into both party’s policy documents and policy positions on all the major issues in Ireland today.

Labour may have a strong uppercut with knockout one-liners and visible anger in the Dáil, led by Eamon Gilmore, however do they have a plan to save the country?

Both parties’ websites have policy pages. Labour’s is their “Our ideas and Policies” page while Fine Gael has a “recent policy catalogue” on its site. I have drawn from both these pages to compare the two parties.

Public Sector

Let’s first jump back to last year’s budget and to the thorny issue of public sector pay. Labour is well known as a political wing for the trade union movement and thus their pre-budget proposal was lacking in specific detail. Both Fine Gael and Labour committed to the government’s reduction of €1.3bn in the public sector pay bill however Labour only gave an aspiration to achieve this reduction through negotiations.

Fine Gael, on the other hand, came out with an extensive and detailed alternative budget that gave detailed breakdowns of where the money would come from. This specified that the €1.3bn would be made by a direct cut in pay to those earning above €30,000 in the public sector. There was no aspiration or hope for the future, just hard figures that spelled out the reality. Fine Gael even went above the €1.3bn suggested and proposed a further €500m reduction in the public sector pay bill through redundancies in the HSE, CIE and through the closing down of wasteful quangos.

Next, we come to the Croke Park deal, a sweet guarantee that ensures not a single pay cut or forced redundancy in the public sector unless there is a further deterioration in the economy. Seems pretty fair to me and that’s why Fine Gael has come out in favour of the proposal. We haven’t engaged in a massive campaign to promote the deal, or to influence union members. We’ve simply stated our position on the matter, a position the public are entitled to know.

However Labour have ducked and dodged this issue right from the beginning. They will not state any position on the deal and if we are to take their members view we can see that two motions were passed at this year’s party conference calling for the restoration of the budget pay cuts and an abolition of the pension levy! That’s the only position I’ve seen from Labour on this issue and so I am led to conclude that this is their policy position on the matter.

Banking

Labour and Fine Gael have roughly the same view on this issue, the establishment of a state run investment bank. This is the good bank option, as opposed to the government’s bad bank, NAMA. Fine Gael announced this policy first and then Labour followed suit months later with an almost identical proposal.

The main difference between the two parties is that Labour favours an ideologically lead nationalisation of the banks. This would be catastrophic for the banks because ultimately a bank belongs free in the marketplace. It’s almost like releasing an animal back into the wild where it belongs, with all the other animals. Keeping a bank nationalised is like keeping an animal in captivity.

Stimulus

Labour has no known policy for a stimulus package for the economy while Fine Gael has a plan to create over 100,000 jobs in the energy, communications and water sectors. It’s called NewERA and it’s a costed and well thought out plan to improve our infrastructure and create employment in the process. Sadly, once again Labour fails to even produce a plan on this, let alone to include specifics costings of their plan.

Health

I have to give Labour some credit in this area. They were the first party to endorse the principal of universal healthcare back in 2001. Fine Gael has since come around to the concept and has adopted a different model based on the Dutch system. The fundamental difference here again is specifics. The Fine Gael proposal has plenty of detail and they’ve even created a dedicated website to explain their policy and what it will provide to the public. Labour continues to only support the principal and it seems they simply want a full bureaucratic public healthcare system that has plagued our system and other health systems in the UK, France and elsewhere in Europe.

The Dutch model means that everyone has private health coverage, it has ended hospital waiting lists and the Fine Gael plan proposes FREE GP care for all, while keeping healthcare spending at its present levels. This can be done by cutting out all the managerial waste in the HSE and by employing competition between insurance companies. Fine Gael sees the benefit of the free market while Labour still remains in its backward mode of socialism and state control.

Education

Education is a huge priority for Fine Gael. Following the budget in December, Education Spokesman Brian Hayes organised large demonstrations against the removal of special needs teachers from a school in Tallaght. This school had 2/3 of its staff removed, in what can only be described as a heartless budget.

As well as protecting the vulnerable in our education system Fine Gael has two key proposals in the third level sector. The first is the re-introduction of third level fees. Our principal is that no student should pay at the door but instead pay after they have completed college. This would be a student loan system similar to many other countries across Europe and in the US. It’s fair to the students and it provides much needed funds to colleges and universities and this will maintain a high standard of facilities and service into the future.

Sadly the Labour party won’t budge on this issue. They aspire to a completely free third level sector, something that is neither practical nor affordable. Since free third level access was introduced in the 1990s it has only served to give higher income families an easy ride while it has not lead to a higher participation rate among lower income families. With Fine Gael’s proposal, supports can be given to those who need it, while those who can pay, pay.

Fine Gael has also recognised the economic benefits of overseas students coming to study in Irish universities. Simple measures that are outlined in their policy document would lead to tens of thousands of more students coming here each year.

Labour also has a policy document called “Priorities in Education”. Again, it’s another document that is purely aspirational and it doesn’t take any regard to our huge deficit and national debt. It even calls for an increase in education spending and to make our spending on education higher than European norms! We just don’t have the money to do that. I agree with Labour’s views on the separation of Church and school however otherwise it’s a completely useless document.

Half of the document is “Labour’s school for the 21st Century”. Firstly this school isn’t theirs, it’s designed by an architecture firm and it’s nothing new! My school in Knocklyon, built in 2000 and other schools like Malahide Community School have almost identical designs. Labour thinks it’s looking to the future, but it’s actually a decade behind! This cross section is almost identical to my school.

This is my view of last week’s leadership heave against Enda Kenny. Unfortunately the general public don’t see it this way however I strongly believe that Fine Gael has shown nothing but strength this week.

Could you say that anyone in Fine Gael showed weakness? I think not.

First I come to Richard Bruton. He’s probably the hardest to defend. He was flawed in the way he approached the confidence motion and the timing was awful. On the week of Brian Cowen’s confidence motion Bruton decides to declare civil war within the Fine Gael party. I accept Dennis Naughten’s reasoning that there’s never a bad time to make a right decision but there could have been a better time to make the move.

However, even then, Richard showed strength by standing up to his leader. Many within the party are fond of Enda and rightly so. He has brought unity to the party and electoral success, however in the wider public perception Kenny is not fit to lead the country. This has been made clear in both opinion polls and in discussions on the doorsteps and on internet forums over the past few years.

Many approaches have been taken to Kenny’s public appearance but to no avail. The general public still see him as weak, wooden and a bit of a bog-man superculchie (a view only found in urban areas, I might add). Bruton tapped into this public mood and he acted on it. We always complain that governments don’t listen to the people and that they don’t do what the people want, even though they are elected to do so. Bruton showed true political leadership this week by going with the public view as opposed to the party view.

Next we must judge the Fine Gael frontbench and those who backed Bruton. Again, they stood up to an unpopular leader and went with the public mood and that must be admired. This was a clear show of strength and it proves that Kenny had chosen a frontbench who knew how to serve the public interest and the public’s view.

Many now question the future of these “rebels” or “dissidents” however I feel that just because they voted “no confidence” in Enda, doesn’t automatically mean that they don’t have confidence in him. I know it’s hard to digest but it’s really quite simple. They think that Kenny is great but they just feel that Bruton is a little bit better.

Finally we must judge Enda and thankfully this is one area where the media has found consensus and where it has finally portrayed Kenny in a positive light. Everyone agrees that Kenny was decisive, he showed charisma during the debate and he came out champion at the end. Through the whole heave he showed strength and this is all the more reason why people should view him as a strong future Taoiseach. Sadly I believe that his negative perception will not ever be changed but we must work together as a party to make the most amount of gains at the next general election under his leadership.

It’s my belief that the divisions in the party are small and that this heave only shed a public light on existing divisions between members of the parliamentary party. It’s important that Kenny welcomes back most, if not all of the “rebels” and that he shows a united front to the electorate.

There’s two years until the next general election and that’s plenty of time to rebuild with everyone looking stronger already.

This week I attended the Fine Gael National conference in Killarney, Co Kerry. Over 2000 delegates were present for the event held in the Malton Hotel.

I arrived Friday evening and the conference began with a Young Fine Gael gathering in one of the smaller conference rooms. President of YFG Barry Walsh spoke about the great success the party has had over this past year and he pointed out how Fine Gael is the only party with the right policies to lead the next government.

He dismissed the other youth parties such as ógra Fianna Fáil, ógra Sinn Féin, and Labour Youth who he described as “champagne socialists”. I couldn’t agree more and the crowds laughter and applause shows that they agreed too. However Enda Kenny who was now present did not laugh. He knows that he will probably have Eamon Gilmore as his Tánaiste in the next government and I think he would prefer if we did’t tarnish our fellow opposition, even if it’s tempting to do so.

Enda Kenny then addressed the gathering and he spoke forcefully and passionately on issues like Youth Unemployment, education, emigration and the wider economy. I have to say that Kenny gives much better speeches to smaller groups than he does to a large hall with TV cameras. He’s also better off the cuff than with a pre-written speech.

The next morning I was seated front row in the main hall for the discussion on jobs and the economy. “Getting Ireland back to work” was the main slogan and theme of the conference.

Seeing all our TDs and Senators who work on economic issues on the one stage really made me realise how skilled a team we have.

Simon Coveney began proceedings with a speech on his NewERA document, a plan to create over 100,000 jobs by investing in energy, water and broadband infrastructure.

Eddie Hobbs then echoed the need for this investment when he highlighted our aging energy transport network. He said that it’s like having only two parallel motorways and the rest of the routes are bicycle tracks! He also spoke about peak oil and how investing in renewable energy is crucial, now more than ever.

Later on, we heard from my own local TD Olivia Mitchell, spokesperson on arts, sports and tourism. Or should I say “Tourism, Culture and Sport”.  She slated the government’s €10 travel tax and how it is reducing tourism into places like Killarney. She called on the airlines to restore dropped routes if Fine Gael abolished the tax in government.

Finally there was a warm reception to Richard Bruton, our finance spokesman. He made it perfectly clear that we would not support the re-capitalisation of Anglo Irish bank and that the zombie bank should be closed down in an orderly fashion. Taxpayers money should not be thrown into a black hole, he said.

After lunch we made sure we had good seats for the political reform discussion. Phil Hogan gave a taster of the “New Politics” document and then members of the audience could make comments.

Many speakers objected to the abolition of the Seanad and it was good to see a fellow YFGer raise the lowering of the voting age to 16. Sadly this does not feature in the document but it is something I’ll be fighting to change within the party.

Next, I went to a small conference room where the competitiveness of our economy was being discussed. Transport was a key feature of the talk, which called for the privatisation of some bus services, particularly in Dublin. I warmly welcome this as long as a regular and well routed network is maintained in the capital.

The conference went into pause mode in the early evening, due to the rugby match, but at 7pm the loss to Scotland was the last thing on people’s minds. Before the presidential speech, many of our elected representatives led the buildup. Mairead McGuinness MEP hosted the evening, and she provided much humour and entertainment for the delegates. Leo Varadkar, Michael Ring and James Reilly all spoke passionately too.

Leo highlighted the key differences between us and the government, Michael Ring sang the praises of Enda Kenny, and James Reilly gave an emotional endorsement of our health policy and how it will radically transform our health service into a system we can be proud of.

Finally, at 8:30 Enda Kenny entered the room for his presidential address. As mentioned previously, he is not good in front of a television camera and he’s even worse with a prewritten speech, especially if that speech is badly written! As members, we know many of the policy positions so for me his speech was quite boring. However, I would have expected something more lively from him and to be honest I found the buildup more exciting. It was an anti-climax for me.

But, I was impressed by one line. He made it quite clear that any doctor who has not opened all their letters from GPs will not be paid, and that any hospital department that is also not up-to-date, will not be paid either. This makes perfect sense to me, and it is just another area where Fine Gael shows responsibility and common sense.

This week Fine Gael is expected to unveil its plans for a “New Republic”. The policy document, which is yet to be released has been extensively leaked to the media so we have a general idea of what to expect.

The plans make at least five fundamental changes to our political system and the idea is to make all the changes on the same day in what has been dubbed as “super referendum”.

The first problem I foresee with this plan is that so many changes are made in one vote. The First Lisbon Treaty referendum proved that the Irish electorate, when unsure, will reject something that they do not fully understand. Any one of these proposals could become a sticking point for public opposition, and any such referendum could easily be lost even when the rest of the proposals are worthy of acceptance.

The first, and most radical change proposed is the abolition of the Seanad. In principle, I agree with this proposal. Many Scandinavian countries have no difficulty with one parliament, in fact many countries with one parliament are more advanced than us. However, the abolition of one chamber needs to be met with a significant reforms in the other. This is where I feel the Fine Gael plan is lacking.

It is welcome to see the introduction of a list system to elect TDs, however, it seems that only 12 to 15 TDs will be elected this way. Also, if the political parties themselves are deciding on who is on their list then there is no benefit to democracy. Only party hacks, who a loyal enough to the system will be chosen. We need an open list system with more TDs elected this way to make a better change.

I welcome the proposal to reduce the term of the presidency from 7 to 5 years. While this will see a presidential election race more often, savings will be made by running this election alongside the European and local elections. It makes sense, but I feel that we are missing an opportunity to reform the office of the President. We spend millions every year on having a president, yet he/she has limited power and is, in effect, subservient to the government of the day. Either we move to a presidential system similar to the United States and France, or we abolish the office altogether.

Finally, it is good to see the rejection from the plan, of a proposal to introduce gender quotas. The measure was defeated at Fine Gael’s parliamentary party meeting last week. Dublin South East TD, Lucinda Creighton spoke forcefully against the proposal and I agree with her comments. Gender quotas would undermine existing female TDs, who have fought hard for their positions and it would provide an easy route for unsuitable women to enter the Dáil.

The Fine Gael national conference is this weekend and it is likely that the full policy document will be released by then.

Change has come to Ireland they said. Ireland’s Barack Obama, the man with the plan! And to think I was that naive to believe all the hype.

When George Lee announced his decision to run in Dublin South last year, it was the push that got me involved with politics and with Fine Gael. I was so excited to meet him and I was privileged to help in his campaign. I believed his rhetoric about telling his grandkids that he did something when the country was on its knees. I also believed him when he said he’d run again at the next general election!

But the thing that pisses me off the most is that I trusted him. I trusted him so much that I canvassed relentlessly for him. Last summer I devoted two full weeks of my time to his campaign and I sacrificed much of my summer time for this.

I was even there when they counted his votes in the RDS, all 27,768 of them. No other TD in Dáil Eireann has ever received such a large number of votes. We always say that our TDs don’t have the support of the people, George Lee was the exception. He had our full support but he let us down. He couldn’t stand the heat so he got out of the kitchen.

But f**k him I say.

Now he can tell his kids that politics was too tough and that he left after only 9 months!

I ask anyone to point to a national opposition politician who can have a large impact after only 9 months. Many TDs have to wait 9 years until they are given a frontbench position. Enda Kenny waited 9 Dáil terms and went through 9 general elections before he was elected party leader in 2002. Politics is a slow game for life.

It really shows that George Lee had no patience and would not even settle with a frontbench position!

He says that his reasons are his lack of influence in party policy. Which areas of policy though?? He hasn’t specified one area in which he has had disagreement. I think we’d all like to know what the real problems were! Policies have to have a wide support from the parliamentary party. I think he just couldn’t have things his own way! I know that he’s a man to speak his mind but I was truly shocked when I heard the news today.

I can’t believe the news today
Oh, I can’t close my eyes and make it go away
How long, how long must we sing this song?

Watching RTÉ’s “The Frontline” this week it became clear the huge differences that lie between The Greens and Fianna Fáil. Councillors shouting at each other over issues such as planning and the banks showed the cracks that lie within the government. It also highlights how incompatible the two parties are and all you have to do is look at the Green’s “shopping list” for the Programme for Government. They wanted Education cuts reversed, social welfare levels maintained and a drastic reduction in the number of TD’s along with more reforms in local government. Did any of this happen, NO!

The differences that lie between FF and The Greens makes me think about the likelihood of a Fine Gael/Labour co-alition. The is the right-left alternative that is likely after the next General Election however these two parties are just as incompatible as the present co-alition.

Labour will not budge on public sector cuts while Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar has made it clear that cuts have to be made in wages of public servants.

There is also a lack of consensus on the banks too. Fine Gael has its “Good Bank” plan while Labour wants temporary nationalisation of the banks. Now maybe the establishment of NAMA will end this issue but it’s still likely to be a contentious issue around a FG/Lab cabinet table.

Many will point to the present co-alition and say that it works to have two fundamentally different parties in government however the two situations are not the same. FF has 76 TD’s while the Greens only have 6. They hold the balance of power but their influence is restrained by those numbers. My fear is that disagreements in a FG/Lab
co-alition would bring down the government within a matter of weeks.

FG will get over 70 seats next General Election and Labour could get anything up to 30 based on current opinion polls. This puts Labour in a much better bargaining position than the Greens currently have with Fianna Fáil.

So, what is the ideal co-alition? Well, Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil actually! Not only would this see an end to civil-war politics in this country but it would eventually see the fall of the Fianna Fáil party I believe. The small party in government always gets screwed. We saw it with the PDs, we’re about to see it with the Greens and after going into bed with FF and FG in the 90′s, Labour’s Spring Tide was reduced to a mere wave in 1997.

A FG/FF co-alition would highlight the fact that FF is not needed. After one term, if the economy is back on track FG would get most of the praise at the expense of FF. Likewise such a co-alition would expose the left in Ireland and it would lead to the Labour party becoming the main opposition part in Ireland. I think it’s time we had a proper left-right divide in this country instead of the on-off centre right switching game between FG and FF.

Let’s unite the right and expose the populist, no cuts approach taken by Labour, Sinn Féin, The Socialists and other non-pragmatic left parties.

I believe the upcoming budget will eat further into the FF core vote and it could push their opinion polls standing down to under 15%. If this were to be replicated in a general election then FF could find itself with only 25 or so seats, less than what Labour will get, soaring FF to third place in the parties race. They’ve held first place since the foundation of the state. This fall in support could go FG’s way to push it over the 83 seats required for an overall majority however I’m doubtful about whether that will materialise. Labour’s unwavering support for maintaining wages will go down well with the electorate and if they can continue to play populism in their favour then many of the FF seats could swing their way.

So, in the next General Election FG could find themselves just shy of the 83. Labour with well over 30 seats and FF somewhere in the 20s. Independents could support FG but the likes of Maureen O’Sullivan, Finian McGrath and Michael Lowry would not be jumping to support a FG government characterised by cuts unless there were financial injections to their respective constituencies, something this country cannot afford!

Anyway, there won’t be another chance to topple this government until after the budget. We’ll have to wait until then to see how public opinion swings during what will be the coldest winter of discontent this country has ever known.

Anne Devitt, Fine Gael councillor for Fingal County Council was today revealed as having not paid €50,000 in tax. She was elected to the council from the Swords LEA in the June elections on the last count.

This controversy follows her appearance at the Mahon Tribunal in 2006 where she defended the €32,500 she received from property developers in the area.

Only tax evaders above €30k have their names published and Cllr. Devitt’s crime was as high to have her listed. It’s deplorable that this councillor is a member of Fine Gael and it is a tarnish on our image of being the party of no corruption. We still retain this title in comparison to Fianna Fáil but that is not enough.

Fine Gael will sooner or later become the largest party in Ireland and power cannot go to our heads like it has to Fianna Fáil. We must continue to be a clean party that does not allow anyone who evades tax in the party and we must set an example to other parties.

That is why I’m calling for the immediate dismissal of Cllr. Anne Devitt from the Fine Gael party.

Fine Gael party leader Enda Kenny today made it clear that an overall FG majority was not to be ruled out. The comments were made at the party’s annual think-in in Cavan. Fine Gael have never had an overall majority and they have always relied on forming a co-alition with Labour.

While the party is set to become the largest party in Ireland, surpassing Fianna Fáil’s number of Dáil seats for the first time it’d be a miracle to get more than 83 seats in the 166 seater Dáil. Fine Gael currently have 51 seats.

Fine Gael will get its largest number of seats ever, and Fianna Fáil its lowest. Under normal circumstances this statement would imply a FG majority however there is one group of politicians that will see the largest rise in support in the next general election: the left.

Labour, People Before Profit, The Socialist Party and Sinn Féin will all be out in force next election and they’re all due to take Dáil seats. Labour could get around 30 seats, up from 20, PBP will get at least one seat, maybe 2. The socialist party should get two seats, and Sinn Féin is looking to get 7-10 seats, up from 4. Altogether left-wing parties will get around 40+ seats in the next Dáil based on current polls.

However should Fine Gael actually get over 83 seats then this must go hand in hand with a Labour or Sinn Féin increase. This would probably put the left vote anywhere up to 50 seats.

Independents could get up to 10 seats however a more realistic approach says they’ll get around 5.

So let’s say that Fine Gael get a safe 85 seats in the next election. Add that to the 55 seats mentioned above and you have 140 of the seats filled. Only 26 seats left for Fianna Fáil?

On 17% of the vote FF statistically have 28 seats however it’s certain that they’ll get more. Fianna Fáil is the party of power and it won’t be giving up that title too easily. They always get more seats than their % vote suggests. If we look at the 2002 general election we see that FF got 41% of the vote. Multiply this by 1.66 (dail seats equation) and you get roughly 69 seats. However in 2002 Fianna Fáil got 81 seats!

So, it’s fair to say that unless there is another erosion in the seemingly endless ‘core’ FF vote then we won’t see them on less than 35 seats or so.

At present there is scope for a FG minority government however who would support them? PBP, socialists and Sinn Féin are all radicals so that’s 10 votes immediately out of consideration. This only leaves independents and many of them would come under serious fire for supporting more cuts that FG will have to make in government. This is unworkable for them even if there would be a financial benefit for his or her constituency (The Jackie Healey-Rae method).

So until such time as support is there for Fine Gael, themselves and Labour better get used to each other and maybe try and find consensus on issues such as banking.

One upside of the presumed co-alition is that it will be the first co-alition to exceed 100 seats. This is well above the 83 requirement and it will, in 5 consecutive years set another record.

Fine Gael’s second term in a row