Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael
1 Green Party

Analysis

Dublin South is a large five seat constituency that often swings with national moods. No seat is safe here and that’s why it is so tightly fought. I can safely predict 4 of the seats however the 5th seat is anyone’s guess. I live in this constituency and even I can’t call it!

Fianna Fáil has always held two seats here; Tom Kitt and the late Seamus Brennan. In 2012 Fianna Fáil will hold one seat however a second is unlikely. Shay Brennan (son of Seamus) is eager to run and Tom Kitt’s intention not to run again leaves at least another place open on the ballot. I think the ballot paper will include Senator Maria Corrigan, Shay Brennan (or sister Cllr Aoife Brennan) and Cllr John LaHart. LaHart would do very well in picking up votes here in Knocklyon and Rathfarnham. There’s no telling which candidate will take the seat. Whoever is selected for the bye-election is likely to take a seat in 2012.

Fine Gael held 3 seats here during the 1980s and until George Lee resigned, there were 3 Fine Gael seats here. Olivia Mitchell and Alan Shatter hold seats here at present and whoever is selected for the bye-election will be the third candidate on the ballot paper. 3 seats was looking likely until George Lee left however now it’ll be difficult for Fine Gael to win 3 seats in 2012.

Labour will field Senator Alex White and another councillor. Either Aidan Culhane or Lettie McCarthy. Alex White will easily get a seat while the other Labour candidate will be in the fight for the 5th seat.

Green Minister Eamon Ryan will be in a tough fight for the last seat too. All Green TDs are heavily reliant on transfers and these dried up during the 2009 local elections. He’ll need to pull out a strong personal vote in order to survive. He’ll also need a boost in the national economy to deflect blame for his part in supporting the government.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Alan Shatter and Olivia Mitchell
1 Fianna Fáil – Maria Corrigan, Shay Brennan or John LaHart
1 Labour – Alex White

5th seat fought between: Eamon Ryan (Green), Labour councillor, 3rd Fine Gael candidate, 2nd Fianna Fáil candidate!

It’s going to be seriously close!!!

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Labour

Analysis

Dublin North West is a three seat constituency mainly comprising the Ballymun-Finglas LEA. Fianna Fáil has held 2 out of 3 seats here since 1992 however this is set to change in 2012 with both seats likely to be lost. The two sitting TDs are Minister Pat Carey and the former Taoiseach’s brother Noel Ahern. With a 2009 local result of only 16% the party needs a miracle to hold even one seat in this constituency.

My advise is only to run one candidate. Two candidates will split the vote and both TDs will find themselves unelected. Noel Ahern is 65 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he decided not to seek re-election. I’m expecting his already retired brother to do the same! The flip side of this is that it removes any personal votes Ahern would have had. This leaves Minister Pat Carey to soak up as many (or as little) Fianna Fáil votes that are there.

Fine Gael is also struggling in the constituency. The party hasn’t held a seat here since 1997 and Cllr Dr Bill Tormey will have a huge challenge to get near a seat. The locals also show the party at 16% so I don’t see a Fine Gael seat here either.

This immediately rules out both main parties!

Sinn Féin is very strong in the constituency. The locals gave the party 25% of the vote, so if Dessie Ellis runs again he’ll top the poll this time. The local councillor missed out on a seat in 2007.

Labour is even stronger in the constituency and they’ll be looking for two out of three seats in 2012. The sitting TD is Roisin Shortall and she is likely to be joined by first time councillor John Lyons. Only 33, Lyons topped the poll in 2009 with 1.33 of a quota! The locals show the party at 32%, which is short of the near 50% needed for two seats, however if Fine Gael is eliminated like 2007 then most of those transfers will go to Labour.

2012 Prediction

2 Labour – Roisin Shortall and John Lyons
1 Sinn Féin – Dessie Ellis

Upset Prediction

Fianna Fáil holds a seat: If Noel Ahern decides to retire then Pat Carey has a chance or retaining his seat instead of Labour’s gain. However it’ll take a turnaround in national opinion of Fianna Fáil to allow this to happen. And that’s remains unlikely.

I’d be lying if I said that my blog shines a favourable light on Labour. I’m against the party here and in the UK. However, one thing I’ve always liked about the British Labour Party was Tony Blair.

Blair’s time as Prime Minister had its ups and downs but overall I think we can say that Ireland has benefited greatly from his 10 years in office.

The first and most important contribution has to be the Northern Peace process and the Good Friday Agreement. While John Major laid a solid foundation for agreement, it was Blair who signed the deal and this must be acknowledged. Now the North is in relative peace with only a tiny minority of dissidents will to take up arms. The wounds are not yet healed but I’ve no doubt that without Blair they could be a lot deeper today.

Secondly there’s the low prices in Northern Ireland. While Gordon Brown made a balls of the UK’s budget, inflation remained stable over the past 10 years. Contrast this to Ireland where we’ve priced ourselves out of the global spotlight. While our attempts to bring prices into line are thwarted by unions and other vested interest, the low prices for all manner of goods and services in Northern Ireland has provided Southerners with a low-cost alternative to the rip-off republic.

This is also an unintended consequence of the peace process. Even with low prices, Southerners would not travel up North if there were regular checkpoints by army officers armed with guns just waiting to shoot at a possible IRA member. Peace and prosperity in the North, facilitated by Blair has benefited us all. There’s no doubt about that.

Now, while most people accept the peace that Blair achieved, many would say that he unravelled his good work by going to war in Iraq and Afghanistan. I disagree with this argument. Sometimes you have to go to war to achieve peace.

Yes, over 100,000 people have died in the middle east, BUT how many more would have died under Saddam’s tyranny? How large would the Taliban be without intervention in Afghanistan? How many innocent westerners, working in places like the World Trade Centre’s or commuting on the London tube will die if we just let extremists roam free in the world?

War is not pretty, however in most times it is the lesser of two evils. I think Blair was right to join the US war in the middle east. Iraq is now a democracy and in Afghanistan the power of the Taliban is diminishing every day. There are human casualties in the process, but I believe this is all for the greater good. (And not the cheesy greater good from Hot Fuzz, I mean a safer world for all people)

I’m sickened today to see anti-war and anti-British (thus pro-war with the UK) protesters attacking Blair with eggs and shoes as he signed his book in Easons. The hypocrisy of these groups is funny, if it weren’t so serious. On the one had you have Éirigí, an extremist republican organisation who are at best sympathetic to the violent cause of dissidents in the North and then you have the Socialist Workers Party, People Before Profit, Ireland-Palestine Solidarity Coalition and the Irish anti-war movement, all of whom condemn the war in Iraq and violence in general.

The majority of Irish people couldn’t care for these far-left organisations. Most people recognise the contribution Tony Blair has made to Ireland and I’m one of those people.

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Dublin North Central is a three seat constituency composed of Artane Whitehall, Howth-Malhide and Donaghmede LEA wards. A four seater until 2002, it would always return two Fianna Fáil TDs with former cabinet Minister Michael Woods holding his seat here since the constituency’s creation in 1981.

Woods (74) is almost certain not to contest the next general election and this leaves Fianna Fáil with an interesting selection process. Former TD and now Senator Martin Brady may want to run and there’s a relatively young Fianna Fáil councillor in each of the 3 LEA wards, including Eoghan O’Brien (27) brother of Dublin North TD Darragh O’Brien.

These candidates may be able to separate themselves to the hated senior Fianna Fáil ministers but I don’t think the party can keep its seat here in 2012. In the 2009 local elections, the party only received 19% of the vote and this is well off the 25% needed for one seat.

Fine Gael currently holds one seat in the constituency and the party should be able to hold this seat comfortably in 2012.

This leaves two seats up for grabs and the real question is whether Labour will take two or whether Sinn Féin can take a seat also.

Sitting Labour TD Tommy P Broughan will probably top the poll and there’s a menu of 5 Labour councillors in the area to run alongside him. In 1992 Labour won two seats out of four here during the Spring Tide. The “Gilmore Gale” is expected to be much larger and in the 2009 local elections, Labour won over 30% of the vote. This is far from the 50% needed for two seats however Sinn Féin transfers mainly to Labour and they won 12% of the vote in 2009. This can be expected to rise somewhat in 2012.

The last seat will be a close fight between Sinn Féin’s Larry O’Toole and the second Labour candidate. If Tommy Broughan’s vote is significantly larger than his running mate then O’Toole could edge ahead of the 2nd Labour candidate and get elected instead. Labour’s task will be to balance their vote between both candidates. This will be down to the level of posters and leaflets that are distributed and the profile of the second candidate. None of these factors can be predicted at this stage so I’m leaving this last seat open.

2012 Prediction

1 Labour – Tommy Broughan
1 Fine Gael – Terence Flanagan
1 Labour or Sinn Féin – 2nd Candidate or Larry O’Toole

Upset Prediction

Fianna Fáil holds its seat: A noticeable turnaround in the economy allows a young candidate to take a seat instead of Sinn Féin or the second Labour candidate.

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Independent

Analysis

Dublin North Central is a three seat constituency mainly composed of Clontarf and it’s surrounding areas. My prediction for this constituency is very simple so I’ll be quick.

Richard Bruton topped the poll with a quota in 2007 and I’ve no doubt he’ll be re-elected next time. There’s talk about a running mate, maybe Dublin Lord Mayor Gerry Breen however I only see one seat here for Fine Gael.

Labour are almost certain to pick up a seat as they set to make big gains in the capital. Councillor Aodhan O Riordain will run and I think he’ll probably be elected on the first count. He will be taking Independent TD Finian McGrath’s seat. I don’t see McGrath taking his seat back again. He was reliant on Labour transfers last time and now with Labour ahead of him, he just won’t last.

Believe it or not, I’m giving the last seat to Fianna Fáil. Ivor Callely will not be running in 2012 however Sean Haughey will, and he is a very popular candidate in the constituency. I’m told there’s a core vote of people who still vote for the Haughey name and this will see him over the line.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Richard Bruton
1 Labour – Aodhan O Riordain
1 Fianna Fáil – Sean Haughey

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Green Party

Analysis

Dublin North is a four seats constituency that covers most of North County Dublin including locations like Malahide and Swords.

In 2002 Fine Gael’s Nora Owen famously lost her seat and in 2007 it was won by Dr. James Reilly, Fine Gael’s health spokesman and now Deputy Leader of the party. In 2009 the party won nearly 20% of the vote, so in 2012 Reilly will easily top the poll if he runs alone. Even if there is a running mate, transfers will come his way.

Also looking at the locals we see Fianna Fáil on 14%! This is a dismal result and at this rate they will not return any of their two sitting TDs: Darragh O’Brien or Michael Kennedy. They will also be starved for transfers and so I predict that they will both loose their seats in 2012.

Labour was very successful in the local elections, winning 28% of the vote. In 1992 during the Spring Tide Sean Ryan won 34% of the vote to elect him with 1.7 of a quota. We’re expecting the Gilmore Gale to be even bigger, especially in Dublin so I predict that Labour will win two seats here in 2012. This is a massive shift however if Ryan had fielded a running mate in 1992 they would have gone from 0 to 2 seats also.

Senator Brendan Ryan will run for Labour again and he will be joined by any one of Labour’s 6 councillors in the constituency. Don’t ask me who because it could be anyone!

The socialist party’s Clare Daly will poll very well again however I think that she will fall short of a seat. The party didn’t break 10% in the locals and boundary changes have taken a chunk of swords out of the constituency. Swords is her base so this damages her vote, a lot.

Trevor Sergent will run for the Greens again and I think he will retake his seat, barely. Trevor is the longest serving TD in this constituency and it’s likely he has a personal vote. This gives him a strength above all the other candidates. Many people would have voted for him since 1992 and while many will dismay at the Greens in government, there will also be many who’ll give Trevor a vote, as opposed to the Greens.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Dr James Reilly
2 Labour – Brendan Ryan and a councillor
1 Green – Trevor Sergent

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
1 Labour
1 Green Party
1 PD

Analysis

Dublin Mid West is a very unique constituency in that is has only existed since 2002. In 2007 it became a four seater and it elected a mixed bunch of TDs. Current Government Whip John Curran (FF), Minister for Health Mary Harney (Independent, formerly PD), all round loud mouth Paul Gogarty (Green) and Labour TD Joanna Tuffy.

This constituency will see radical change in 2012 due to the increase in Fine Gael and Labour’s vote, plus the demise of the two junior co-alition parties; The Green Party and the Progressive Democrats. Mary Harney is now an independent and I believe she won’t run again. There would be no point and I very much doubt that she would even get elected. I think she’ll take the ministerial pension and enjoy her retirement. It sounds much more appealing than spending 5 more years as an unnoticed independent TD with no power.

I also believe that we won’t see Paul Gogarty returning to the Dáil either. His recent outbursts in the Dáil and publicity stunts plus the collapse of the Green vote in the constituency will all go against him in 2012. Gogarty was heavily reliant on transfers and these have all deserted him.

This leaves two incumbents out of the race but I believe the other two incumbents are safe.

Fianna Fáil TD John Curran should be able to hold his seat although it will be difficult. The Fianna Fáil vote in 2009 was 16.39% which is somewhere off the quota of 20%. However, it’s believed that he has a strong personal vote so if he runs by himself then he should be able to top the poll near 20%. Even if he’s below quota, a small stream of transfers will push him over the line.

Labour TD Joanna Tuffy is also safe and the party will no doubt field a second candidate under their 2 seat strategy. Tuffy and her father are based in Lucan so I believe the party will run Clondalkin councillor Robert Dowds. Dowds topped the poll in 2009 with 1.10 of a quota.

However, Fine Gael will also run two candidates with a view to gaining two seats. Lucan councillor Derek Keating along with Senator Frances Fitzgerald will be chosen.

I think that Tuffy (Labour) and Keating (FG) will both win the second and third seats and the fourth and final seat will be a close fight between Dowds (Labour) and Fitzgerald (FG).

Looking at the local elections we see that Fine Gael won 28% of the vote and Labour only 19%. This would suggest that Fine Gael will easily take two seats however I feel that it will be much closer. Labour is very popular for transfers from other left-wing parties and this will give them crucial help. Sinn Féin, People Before Profit and the Green Party are all prominent in the area and their transfers will go mainly to Labour.

It’s a constituency worth watching. If Labour can win two then it’s likely that they’re doing very well nationwide. They’ve a long way to go however, so for now I’m giving the fourth seat to Fine Gael.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Derek Keating and Frances Fitzgerald
1 Fianna Fáil – John Curran
1 Labour – Joanna Tuffy

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Labour
1 Independent

Analysis

Dublin Central is a four seat constituency situated north of the River Liffey. It is the constituency of former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and of the late Independent TD Tony Gregory. In 2009 fellow independent Maureen O’Sullivan was elected in the bye-election that followed Gregory’s death.

Fianna Fáil has held two seats here since 1997 however there is no chance of them retaining both seats in 2012. In 1992 Fianna Fáil didn’t take two seats due to the surge in Labour’s vote. I believe the same will occur again. Bertie Ahern is unlikely to run again which will damage the Fianna Fáil vote.

The incumbent TD is Cyprian Brady however his main source of votes came from Bertie Ahern’s transfers after he himself only received 939 first preference votes in 2007. I doubt whether he would be able to gain a seat by himself and I believe that Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick will join him on the ticket. Even with severe damage to the Fianna Fáil vote she topped the poll in Cabra-Glasnevin last year, being elected on the first count. If she makes it onto the ballot paper then she will take Brady’s seat.

Fine Gael is in a strong position to take a seat here in 2012. Senator Paschal Donohoe polled 22.66% in the bye-election and even if his vote were to drop into the mid-teens, he will have enough transfers to take a seat. The late Jim Mitchell (brother of MEP Gay Mitchell) last won a seat for Fine Gael here in 1997 with 14.5% of the vote.

2 seats will be taken by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil which leaves two remaining. I predict the one will go to Labour and that the other will go to Maureen O’Sullivan.

O’Sullivan doesn’t have the name Gregory had, but that didn’t stop 26% of the electorate giving her their first-preference vote in 2009. O’Sullivan’s vote will drop into the mid-teens when the general election comes around but I believe there’s a core Gregory vote that will go to her and this, with transfers will help her keep her seat.

Labour is looking for two seats here and it has to be said that they are in a good position to do so however I think that they will fall short in the end. Their local vote was 22.93% and they need to get above 30% if they want any shot at a second seat. I think Aine Clancy will join Joe Costello on the ticket.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Paschal Donohoe
1 Fianna Fáil – Mary Fitzpatrick
1 Labour – Joe Costello
1 Independent – Maureen O’Sullivan

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

Donegal South West, like its North Easterly neighbour is also a Fianna Fáil stronghold. Since 1981 the party has held two seats with the exception of 1997 when Pat Gallagher didn’t contest the election due to his position as an MEP. Independent Tom Gildea was elected instead.

So, for nearly 30 years the make up of this constituency hasn’t changed at all! Dinny McGinley has represented Fine Gael here since 1982, Pat Gallagher since 1981 and although Tánaiste Mary Coughlan has only been a TD since 1987, the family name Coughlan has held a seat in Donegal since 1980. This constituency is going to see big changes in 2012.

The main shock is that Fianna Fáil won’t hold both their seats. The party has never polled less than 40% in the constituency but in last years local elections they polled a miserable 29%. Pat Gallagher vacated his seat last year when he became MEP for Ireland North West. This leaves Mary Coughlan as the only Fianna Fáil TD and her high profile as Tánaiste will easily see her retain her seat in 2012.

I think it would be foolish for Pat Gallagher to contest his seat again so I think he’ll play it safe by staying in Brussels. Instead I think that young Senator Brian O Domhnaill will join Coughlan on the ticket in 2012. He’s only 32 years old and he’s likely to take a seat sometime in his lifetime if he stays in politics. He has no chance of winning a seat but he’ll get experience contesting this next election. His transfers will also prove crucial if Coughlan needs them.

Fine Gael will also see big changes because Dinny McGinley is unlikely to contest the next general election. McGinley had intended to retire before 2007 however he came back in fear that the seat would be lost to Sinn Féin. Now that Cllr Barry O’Neill has been selected as the Bye-Election candidate, and presumably his successor, McGinley can now retire knowing that the FG seat is safe. The party polled over 25% in the local elections which is a nice round quota for O’Neill when the General Election is called. I don’t see Fine Gael taking a second seat, especially when Fianna Fáil has a higher vote than them.

The final seat will be the biggest surprise because I believe that Sinn Féin will take it. Senator Pearse Doherty is gaining a lot of publicity over his high court challenge against the government over the Donegal South West Bye-Election. The young Senator polled 21% in 2007 so he only needs to take 4% of the vote off Fianna Fáil to get himself a quota. Although Sinn Féin only polled 17% in last years locals this is up from the party’s 2004 local election result. Even if he can’t get a quota, Labour’s transfers will give him the votes he needs.

And NO, Labour do not have a seat here. Frank McBrearty Jnr. will run in 2012 but he won’t get very far. Labour only polled 8% in 2009 and McBrearty was their only elected councillor.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Barry O’Neil
1 Fianna Fáil – Mary Coughlan
1 Sinn Féin – Pearse Doherty

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

The 3-seat constituency of Donegal North East is the most northernly in the country. It is a republican stronghold that has never had less than two Fianna Fáil or Independent Fianna Fáil TDs. In 2002 the party held all 3 seats! Fine Gael had always held the third seat and in 2007 newly elected TD Joe McHugh reclaimed it.

2012 will prove to be a huge shake up in Donegal politics because my prediction is that Fianna Fáil will not hold both their seats here. In the 2009 local elections Fianna Fáil only received 36.7% of the vote. Even if they can break 40% they will be starved of transfers and this will mean the loss of one of their seats. The big question is who will lose out. The two incumbent TDs are Dr. Jim McDaid and Niall Blaney. Both don’t hold any ministerial positions and this will give both TDs plenty of time to canvass locally and win support. There’s no way of predicting who will take the seat.

Fine Gael is almost certain to retain its seat but there’s no chance of a second. The party’s local vote was 29% and this is nearly 8% less than Fianna Fáil’s vote. If anyone is to take two seats it’ll be Fianna Fáil not Fine Gael. Joe McHugh will take the seat.

Labour has recently recruited former Independent candidate Jimmy Harte to run for them in 2012. However Gilmore’s prediction of a Labour seat in every constituency won’t hold true here. Even during the Spring Tide of 1992 the party only managed a vote of 11%. In last year’s locals the Labour vote was 4.5%, although this was before Jimmy Harte joined.

I believe that Sinn Féin’s Padraig MacLochlainn will take the third seat. Padraig was only 600 votes away from taking a seat in 2007 and while the party’s vote has remained stagnant, the drop in Fianna Fáil’s vote will allow MacLochlainn to overtake one of the Fianna Fáil TDs and take the third seat.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Joe McHugh
1 Fianna Fáil – Dr Jim McDaid or Niall Blaney
1 Sinn Féin – Padraig MacLochlainn

Michael Noonan has so far proven himself to be indispensable in his role as Finance Spokesman. He is a straight talker and that was made very clear in an interview he gave this past weekend to the Irish Independent. He is not afraid of telling the truth that 40,000 public servants will have to be laid off and that semi-state companies must be sold in order to sort out our public finances. He is a breath of fresh air to the role but he also brings great experience having marked Ray McSharry, Bertie Ahern and Charlie McCreevy as Finance spokesman before. As I’ve said before I await this years budget with great anticipation. It will be a tough budget, but at least Noonan’s budget speech will give some comfort and entertainment to people watching at home.

I was also thrilled to see Noonan leading the attack against the government when he called Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern “a nasty little man”. Ahern is the Minister who banned headshops and who has re-introduced blasphemy into the law.

Sadly some have not welcomed the new Frontbench, particularly the appointment of Frank Feighan to the position of Spokesman on Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs. Frank doesn’t have fluent Irish but he is now taking lesson to improve his fluency. At present he can’t hold an interview with Irish speaking media.

But here’s the thing, I don’t care! We all speak the English language in this country and if the Gaeltacht communities need to raise issues with our spokesman then they can do so through English. It’s not that hard. Someone made the point that Feighan can’t read reports made in Irish, failing to notice that all reports can be obtained in English too! This is just another populist attack on Fine Gael by lazy journalists who couldn’t be arsed doing some deep research on the real issues of the day.

In my original post I was unhappy at the appointment of Leo Varadkar to the Position of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources. I felt he should have been given a bigger role however I’m now satisfied that he has a huge part to play. The debate in this sector now centres around the sale of semi-state assets and there is no better man than Leo to lead our policies. He has been working very hard for the past month and he recently published an analysis of pay and costs in the semi-state sector.

It’s a very interesting read and I’m also looking forward to what Richard Bruton will make of his new responsibility of public sector reform. At the MacGill Summer School he gave an excellent preview of Fine Gael’s vision for a smart state. The full document on public sector reform is due out by the end of the year.

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cork South West is a large 3 seat constituency that is the most southern in Ireland. It covers the Local Electoral Areas of Bantry, Skibbereen and Bandon and it was first contested in 1961. Labour held a seat here from 1961 to 1981 however they have not held a seat here since. Fianna Fáil has always held one seat here except in 2002 when they capitalised on the Fine Gael meltdown by taking a second seat. Fine Gael has always had two seats here with the exception of 2002 and before 1981 when Labour held a seat.

Fianna Fáil’s vote in 2007 was 42% and yet they only won one seat. This means that even if their 2009 local vote of 30% is replicated in a General Election they will easily retain the seat held by new TD Christy O’Sullivan. In fact, if there is no running mate then O’Sullivan will quite easily top the poll. This is unlikely however and we’ll probably see Senator Denis O’Donovan join O’Sullivan on the ticket in 2012. O’Donovan will provide the transfers to get O’Sullivan over the line.

Senator Michael McCarthy will almost certainly represent Labour on the ticket again in 2012 and if Eamon Gilmore’s optimism is anything to go by Labour feels that they can win a seat here again. I’m afraid this won’t happen. While McCarthy polled an impressive 9.64% in 2007, the Labour party itself only polled 9% in last year’s local elections. And if we look at the Spring Tide of 1992 the party only managed to win 11% of the vote. For Labour to have any chance of taking a seat off one of the two sitting Fine Gael TDs McCarthy will have to out poll at least one of them. This requires a vote of about 18%, a doubling of McCarthy’s vote, something that is highly unlikely.

Fine Gael already has two seats in the constituency and it’s more than likely that they will retain both their seats. Fine Gael polled only 36% in 2007, yet they managed two seats. In 2009 their vote in the constituency was 42%, an almost guarantee of two seats in 2012.

The main question is whether the two incumbent TDs will contest again. Jim O’Keeffe and P.J. Sheehan have represented this constituency since 1977 and 1981 respectively. O’Keeffe will be 71 years old in 2012 and Sheehan will be 79! Either way, whoever runs on the Fine Gael ticket will be ensured a seat.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – P.J. Sheehan and Jim O’Keeffe or new local councillors
1 Fianna Fáil – Christy O’Sullivan

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork South Central is a small urban constituency with 5 seats. Since its establishment in 1981 the constituency has generally had the same voting pattern. At least 2 Fianna Fáil seats (3 in 1997 and 2002), 2 Fine Gael seats (The PDs took one of their seats between 1987 and 1994, plus The Green Party took a seat in 2002) and one Labour seat (no seat in 1997 and 2002 due to FF gain).

Fianna Fáil will have serious trouble retaining both seats in 2012 and I very much doubt that they will. In 2007 the party’s vote was at 44% however in last year’s local elections Fianna Fáil only managed to get 22% of the vote, an almost perfect halving of the vote. If we translate this into seats, 2 becomes 1.

The real question we need to ask is who will lose out. The sitting FF TDs are Minister for Foreign Affairs Michael Martin and first time backbencher Michael McGrath. In theory Michael Martin should be safe due to his high profile Ministry but on the other hand, a backbencher like McGrath has all day to canvass and he has a great advantage at the age of 33. Young candidates can generally pull in votes just for being young.

Some opinion polls in the constituency have shown McGrath having a lead over Minister Martin but I’m very skeptical of these local polls that have emerged lately. It’ll be close on the day but I think Michael Martin will win in the end.

Labour are no doubt thinking that they have a real shot at 2 seats here, but I very much doubt that this will happen. In 2009 their local vote was only at nearly 16%. This will give a safe seat to Ciaran Lynch however it won’t be enough to bring in a running mate. Fine Gael barely gained a second seat here in 2007 with a vote of 28%. Labour will be more favourable for transfers from other left-wing parties like Sinn Féin however unless they are well into the mid 20% range, they have very little chance at a second seat.

It’s interesting to note that in 2007 Dan Boyle’s transfers (Green Party) went more in favour of Fine Gael than Labour. Nationwide it is usually the opposite. Fine Gael got more transfers even after one of their 3 candidates had already been eliminated. If Dan Boyle runs again his transfers will probably do the same in 2012. I believe this favourability for transfers will help Fine Gael win 3 seats in this constituency.

In 1997 Fianna Fáil, who are usually very unpopular for transfers, managed to win 3 seats with only 42.6% of the vote. Fine Gael polled 39% in the local elections, so with only a modest increase in the vote, they will gain a third seat in 2012.

Another advantage to Fine Gael is the position of their 3 candidates. They are evenly spread across the constituency, or at least their former council seats are spread out. Simon Coveney TD was elected in Carrigaline, Deirdre Clune TD from Cork South East and Senator Jerry Buttimer from Cork South West. Assuming they stick to their home turfs and mind their vote then we should see 3 Fine Gael TDs from here in 2012.

2012 Prediction

3 Fine Gael – Simon Coveney, Deirdre Clune and Jerry Buttimer
1 Fianna Fáil – Michael Martin
1 Labour – Ciaran Lynch

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism. Labour also brings in a celebrity running mate. This only leaves Fine Gael with two seats.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin as Taoiseach. This massive profile ensures a second seat for McGrath. In this case the status quo remains with the same 5 TDs as in 2007.

Eamon Gilmore has once again come out and stated that he will not enter co-alition with Fianna Fáil after the next general election. He’s right to do so. No government that has caused such destruction to our economy should be afforded the support of other parties in 2012, it would be unjust.

However Eamon is not the first party leader to state that he wants Fianna Fáil out of office.

In the 1980s Dessie O’Malley’s establishment of the PDs originated from his dislike of Fianna Fáil, yet by 1989 Dessie was in coalition with them. The same occurred in 1992 when the Labour party doubled their seats in the Spring Tide on a rhetoric that was completely anti-Fianna Fáil. We know that Dick Spring became Tánaiste that same year. He bit the bullet and chose power over honour. And finally we all know what happened in 2007. To make up the numbers the Green Party accepted the reigns of power. Trevor Sergent gracefully resigned as leader of the party because he had made a promise that he would not enter co-alition with Fianna Fáil. At least he knew what he did was wrong.

While I have a passionate dislike for John “The Bull” O’Donoghue, he proved his worth two weeks ago when he spoke about Eamon Gilmore in relation to the Dog Breeding bill

If I may be excused the analogy, Deputy Gilmore reminds me of a gadfly around the tail of an old cow. He circles, one does not hear him, sometimes he might land but one does not see him land, but all the time one knows he is there and, in the final analysis, one will never quite know what he is up to, where he is going or how he will get there.

That appears to be a very popular stance to take in modern day Irish politics. It amounts to tut-tutism by the finest tut-tuter in the House and I am certain that a man who stands for nothing will fall for anything.

Fall for anything? Fall for Fianna Fáil maybe?

Gilmore can be as forceful as he likes but when his options are laid out after 2012 he’ll have two clear choices. Two-thirds of the cabinet seats with Fine Gael and the position of Tánaiste or half the seats and a rotating Taoiseach under Fianna Fáil. If history has shown anything, we know which option he’ll choose.

I’m sickened by a news story that has emerged about a family seeking public housing in Ashford, County Wicklow. A women and her four children were granted a house however they have been forcibly removed simply because the father and husband is a convicted sex offender. The father does not live with the family, it is only the wife and children. The family of five is now living with relatives in overcrowded conditions. What’s most startling about this situation is the support Labour councillors have given to the mob of residents that forced the family out.

When the residents learnt that the innocent family would be moving in, they immediately organised a protest up to Friday two weeks ago. The house was burnt down on Sunday night. One resident defended their actions.

We weren’t a mob. We decided to keep vigil. The protest finished on Friday morning, we were just keeping a vigil and making sure that nobody did move in

As far as I’m concerned somebody knows who burnt down the house and it’s likely to be one of the residents. I’ve no evidence to prove this but there’s no one else who would have had the motive! It’s also shocking that the residents were keeping a constant vigil and not one of them spotted and reported who entered the house to set it ablaze.

An 88-year-old disabled woman who lived next door has also been forced out of her specially adapted home because it is now in a dangerous condition.

If that fire had spread quickly enough the old lady could have been seriously injured or killed in the blaze. The risk of this happening is much higher than the risk of this man re-offending. He has been clean for 18 years and having been independently assessed he is now described as “low-risk”. There isn’t a non risk, he is as safe as possible! Also with residents on such high alert the man would hardly offend in that estate, especially as he is already the prime suspect by default. All this is besides the point. He won’t be living there!!!

The arsonist in this case is a greater threat to this community and I think the residents should focus their attention on finding this man instead of attacking an innocent family!

Councillor Conal Kavanagh and his Labour colleagues have lead the charge against this innocent family on a political level. They have supported the mob throughout and then Kavanagh put a motion down on the council not merely that sex offenders be removed entirely from the Co Wicklow housing list, but that anyone “they consorted with” should be taken off the list. Does this include his friends, his acquaintances, his postman???

I’d warm to the idea of denying the offenders public housing, but this is a step too far.

It’s really about time Labour stopped with their stupid populism. It’s getting out of hand and it’s starting to damage the lives of innocent people.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cork North West is a large 3 seat constituency that is very rural and therefore difficult to canvass. First established in 1981 it has only ever returned TDs from Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Historically Fine Gael would always return 2 seats while Fianna Fáil only ever managed one. However since Bertie Ahern’s victory in the 1997 general election Fianna Fáil have retained 2 out of 3 seats here.

Since 1997 the Fianna Fáil vote has risen steadily. 46% in 1997, 50% in 2002 and 53% in 2007. However we know that since 2007 the Fianna Fáil vote has dropped significantly nationwide, hitting a low of 17% in recent times. While this drop is not proportional in every constituency it’s almost certain that a drop of around 10% has been seen in Cork North West. Even if Fianna Fáil can manage to get 45% of the vote in 2012 they won’t hold both seats.

Throughout the 80′s Fianna Fáil would always win around 45% of the vote but they would never win 2 seats. Even if Fine Gael had less of a vote, PD or Labour transfers always helped a second Fine Gael candidate win a seat.

With Fianna Fáil set to lose one seat it will be very interesting to see which TD loses out. Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation Batt O’Keeffe is a TD here and in 2007 he received 2000 votes less than his constituency colleague Michael Moynihan. Batt decided to run here for the first time after boundary changes forced him out of Cork South Central. For a new candidate he did surprisingly well and he unseated the incumbent TD Donal Moynihan. I think now that he is settled in the constituency and the fact that he is a cabinet minister should help him catch up with Michael Moynihan and retain his seat.

As mentioned Cork North West has always been Fine Gael heartland and there’s no doubt in my mind that Fine Gael will win back a second seat here in 2012. Fine Gael polled 38% here in 2007 and opinion polls now put the party at roughly 5% higher nationwide. Much of this rise has been seen in rural areas as opposed to urban, therefore I estimate the Fine Gael vote to be somewhere around 45%, maybe even higher. Incumbent TD Michael Creed is sure to retain his seat and I’ve no doubt that Cllr Gerard Murphy will be chosen again to run alongside Creed. If Fine Gael doesn’t break 50% then Labour transfers will ensure 2 Fine Gael TDs.

Many would see this as a constituency for Labour to win a seat however I doubt this very much. Even during the Spring Tide of 1992 Bill Cashin only received 14% of the vote when 25% is the quota in a 3 seat constituency. Labour will probably run Martin Coughlan in 2012 however having only won 5% of the vote in 2007 he would need to at least quadruple his vote to be within any chance of a seat. This is unlikely to happen in such a rural constituency when most of Labour’s recent gains have been made in urban areas.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Michael Creed and Gerard Murphy
1 Fianna Fáil – Batt O’Keefe

Upset Predictions

The only upset would be for Batt O’Keefe to lose his seat. Michael Moynihan has all day to canvass and leaflet drop the constituency while Batt is tied up in Dublin with his ministerial duties. If Moynihan can work like a Trojan to get his name out then maybe he has a chance but otherwise O’Keefe’s ministerial profile will help him retain his seat.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork North Central, like it’s neighbouring constituency of Cork East, will prove to be a tightly fought constituency in 2012. However, this will not be a case of opposition vs government candidates but rather a fight between Labour and Fine Gael for the forth and final seat.

Fianna Fáil has no hope of retaining its two seats in Cork North Central but it will probably hold one seat. In 2007 Billy Kelleher had a significant lead over his party colleague Noel O’Flynn. Kelleher served as Minister of State for Labour Affairs from 2007-2009 and he is now Minister of State for Trade and Commerce. This gives his profile a boost and I predict that on the day he will poll well and the elimination of O’Flynn will give him the transfers he needs to retain his seat. In the 2009 local elections Fianna Fáil’s vote was at 20%, just enough for one seat with strong internal transfers.

Fine Gael is certain to return Bernard Allen to the Dáil and it’s likely that Cllr Gerry Kelly will join him on the ticket in 2012. Both candidates are well positioned in the constituency with Allen based in the city and Kelly based in Blarney.

The problem for Fine Gael is that their vote has not moved significantly since 2007, it has remained around 27%-29%. A vote above 30% is required for 2 seats and it will require a lot of hard work on the ground to achieve this.

What may be of optimism to Fine Gael is that this constituency is to gain a large chunk of land from the Mallow electoral area. In this ward Fine Gael received 39% of the vote in 2009. A rough estimate including this area brings their total vote to almost 29% across the constituency in the 2009 local elections.

Labour’s Kathleen Lynch will certainly retain her seat in 2012 and I’ve no doubt that Cllr John Gilroy from Blarney will join her on the ticket under Labour’s 2 seat strategy. He topped the poll in his LEA with 1.20 of a quota and 4,538 first preference votes. Like Fine Gael, Labour is well placed with one candidate in the city (Lynch) and one in Blarney.

The question is which Blarney councillor will join their TDs in Leinster House: Gerry Kelly for Fine Gael or John Gilroy for Labour?

I think Fine Gael will take the last seat by a small margin.

Many would point to other left-wing parties in the constituency as being a source of Labour transfers. Sinn Féin, The Workers Party and the Socialist Party are all prominent in the city however it’s not completely true that they will transfer solely to Labour.

In 2007 Labour received 27% of transfers while Fine Gael received 25%. If Fine Gael can get 30%+ in 2012 and still be favourable for transfers then they will easily beat Labour.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Bernard Allen and Gerry Kelly
1 Fianna Fáil – Billy Kelleher
1 Labour – Kathleen Lynch

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin from Cork. The extra profile for the county leads to a return of support.

3. Fianna Fáil loses both. 2 for Labour and Fine Gael: A double dip recession, further cuts, higher taxes and a surge in unemployment could send their vote lower and then this situation becomes a reality.

4. Left-Wing TD: In 2009, Sinn Féin, Socialists and The Workers Party had a combined vote of 17% the locals. With strong transfers Sinn Féin’s Cllr Jonathan O’Brien or The Socialist Party’s Cllr Mick Barry could take a seat.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork East will prove to be a pivotal constituency in the 2012 general election. The forth and final seat will be a contest between the three big parties and the winner will likely be the overall victor in the national election.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour will each retain one seat in this constituency. Labour’s Sean Sherlock will keep his seat however it’s unclear who will be safe from Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.

Since 1982 this constituency has returned both Michael Ahern and Ned O’Keeffe from Fianna Fáil. Their votes are often close together and in 2007 their votes were less than 300 votes apart. A flip of a coin would be a better judge on who loses out if Fianna Fáil’s vote stays as low as it is. Both TDs have no ministerial positions so it’ll be interesting to see who can win over local votes in the coming months. (They were both junior ministers before)

Fine Gael has two prominent politicians in the constituency: sitting TD and newly appointed front bench member David Stanton and former TD, future husband of Lucinda Creighton and current Senator Paul Bradford. In 1997 they both held seats and in 2002 and 2007 Paul Bradford received more 1st preference votes but David Stanton got the seat on transfers. Stanton’s new role as Defence spokesman increases his profile ever so slightly and this probably puts his support in line with Senator Bradford’s. Once again, too close to call.

As mentioned, the last seat will be tightly fought but I predict that Fine Gael will take the seat.

Looking at the 2009 local elections it shows Fianna Fáil at 20%, Labour at 15% and Fine Gael at 33%. Fianna Fáil’s vote is always below it’s national average in this constituency so Fianna Fáil would have to recover to 40%+ nationwide for 2 seats to ever be imaginable here.

Many would see this as a place for Labour to gain a seat however I dismiss this prediction. Labour has a young TD to take home one seat but he has no clear running mate to win widespread support and Labour needs to break past 30% nationwide for this to happen.

Fine Gael is better placed with two candidates who have a presence in the constituency for over 15 years.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – David Stanton and Paul Bradford
1 Fianna Fáil – Michael Ahern or Ned O’Keeffe
1 Labour – Sean Sherlock

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism. Labour also brings in a celebrity running mate.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin from Cork. The extra profile for the county leads to a return of support.

3. Fianna Fáil loses both. 2 for Labour and Fine Gael: A double dip recession, further cuts, higher taxes and a surge in unemployment could send their vote lower and then this situation becomes a reality. In Midleton the Fianna Fáil vote dropped to 15% last year. If the same drop occurs across the constituency then anything’s possible.

Sean Barrett – Foreign Affairs: It’s very welcome to see Barrett’s return to the frontbench. He served as minister for Defence during the Rainbow co-alition in the 1990s and he had originally announced his retirement in 2002. Having returned to his seat in Dun Laoghaire for the 2007 elections he has been very active in the party of late. He comes across very well and I was impressed at his performance on The Week in Politics last Sunday.

Richard Bruton – Enterprise, Jobs & Economic Planning (including public service reform): Fine Gael can’t win an election without Richard Bruton and it’s great to see his continuation in an economic portfolio. I feel this position is not a demotion for Richard but merely a move sideways. Richard was Minister for Enterprise and Employment during the Rainbow co-alition so he is very suited for this position. I’m also pleased he’s in a role that includes public service reform. It’s rumoured that Bruton produced an excellent proposal called “Smart State” before the leadership heave that included radical reforms of government departments and agencies such as the HSE. I hope his hard work continues.

Simon Coveney – Transport: In his previous role as energy, communications and natural resources spokesman Simon did some excellent work. Producing the NewERA plan he tied all the aspects of his role into one and he deserves great credit for developing this policy almost all on his own. If he can bring the same enthusiasm and energy into the area of transport then we should see some fantastic policy ideas over the coming months and years. It was wise of Kenny not to give him the chop as was rumoured over the past few days.

Michael Noonan – Finance: Noonan has the greatest ministerial service of any Fine Gael TD so he is very suited for the position as finance spokesman. During the Garret Fitzgerald government he served as Minister for Justice and as Minister for Industry and Commerce after a reshuffle. He then served as Minister for Health during the Rainbow co-alition. After Fianna Fáil regained power he took the opposition role of Finance. At every budget his speech was always well received and Noonan has always been regarded for his use of wit and humour. Even though he has been out of the front bench for 8 years I believe he is ready for a return to spotlight politics and he should prove to be a tough opponent of Brian Lenihan.

James Reilly – Deputy Leader & Health & Children: Dr Reilly was very vocal in his support for Enda Kenny during the leadership challenge and his loyalty has been rewarded with the Deputy Leader role. James is only in politics since 2007 so it’ll be interesting to see how he manages as the party’s number 2. I think Phil Hogan has more experience for the role and it was expected that he would get the job, however a need to maintain a large Fine Gael presence in Dublin was the main reason for giving Reilly the position. Reilly continues to be a superb health spokesman and I’ve no doubt he’ll make an excellent Minister too.

Alan Shatter – Justice & Law Reform: While my other local TD Olivia Mitchell has been left out of the frontbench it’s good to see Alan Shatter’s promotion to the role of Justice. Shatter has worked very hard in his role as spokesperson for children and throughout his past 25 years as a legislator and as a TD for Dublin South. I’ve no doubt that he’ll continue to scrutinise government policy and provide alternatives.

Leo Varadkar – Communications, Energy & Natural Resources: This is the appointment that I’m disappointed with. As I’ve mentioned the policies for this portfolio are outlined in NewERA and this leaves little work for Leo to do. Of course he’ll have a fun time sticking it to the Green Minister Eamon Ryan, however Kenny has missed an opportunity to give Leo a position where real policy reforms are yet to be developed. I would have much preferred Leo to be given the role as education spokesman. With respect to Fergus O’Dowd, who is an excellent politician, he is twice the age that Leo is and although he was previously a teacher himself, Leo would be much more in touch with the education system today.

However besides this appointment Kenny has unveiled a solid frontbench. The task now is to put the past to bed and to continue the pressure on the government over the next two years.

Here is the rest of the Frontbench:

• Enda Kenny – Leader
• Catherine Byrne – Older Citizens
• Deirdre Clune – Innovation & Research
• Jimmy Deenihan – Tourism, Culture & Sport
• Andrew Doyle – Agriculture, Fisheries & Food
• Frank Feighan – Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs
• Charlie Flanagan – Children
• Phil Hogan – Environment, Heritage & Local Government
• Paul Kehoe – Chief Whip (with responsibility for political reform)
• Fergus O’Dowd – Education & Skills
• John Perry – Small Business
• Michael Ring – Social Protection
• David Stanton – Defence

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael

Analysis

Clare is one of Ireland’s oldest constituencies, established for the 2nd Dáil in 1921. Until 1959 it was the constituency of Eamon De Valera and former president Patrick Hillary was a TDs here also. During the Spring Tide of 1992 this constituency caused a huge surprise by electing Ireland’s first Muslim TD Moosajee Bhamjee from Labour. He was elected with the slogan “You’ve had all the cowboys, now try an Indian”.

Bhamjee achieved this with a 11.46% vote for Labour and with a large chunk of transfers from Fine Gael who only held one seat out of four seats in 1992. Bhamjee didn’t run in 1997 and the Labour vote dropped to 3%, proving that the vote was primarily a personal one. Labour won 3% in 2002 and then their vote dropped to 1.5% in 2007. Eamon GIlmore’s leadership of the party only helped them achieve 4% of votes in the 2009 local elections although it must be noted that Labour only ran in half of the county’s LEAs. Therefore I estimate their vote at around 8% when you consider their recent rise in popularity.

An optimistic Labour man will tell you that 11% is achievable again and that they can win a seat with this vote. I believe that they won’t. Even if they go above 10% they won’t have enough transfers and many of their recent candidates have been unknown people. It’s only possible if they bring in a high profile candidate such as former independent TD James Breen. Breen is described as “left-wing” and he is still a councillor for Ennis West achieving 1.5 of a quota in 2009. He narrowly missed out at retaining his seat in 2007, losing to a second Fine Gael seat. If Labour can recruit him they have a seat, otherwise no.

Fine Gael polled 35% in 2007, winning 2 seats and in 2009 they polled 34% in the local elections making them the largest party on the county council for the first time in history. Fine Gael is certain to retain both it seats in 2012.

Fianna Fáil has always been strong in Clare. In 1997 they won 3/4 seats and in 2002 and 2007 their vote always ran above their national average. In 2009 they polled 35% and with Tony Killeen being the new Minister for Defence Fianna Fáil should also retain their two seats in 2012.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – Timmy Dooley and Tony Killeen
2 Fine Gael – Pat Breen and Joe Carey

Upset Prediction

As mentioned above, either Labour or an independent has a shot at one of the Fianna Fáil seats.

Link: 2007 results

1 Ceann Comhairle
2 Fianna Fáil
1 Sinn Féin
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cavan-Monaghan was established in 1977 and being a border constituency it has often voted republican. Fianna Fáil has often returned 3/5 seats and in 1981 the hunger striker Kieran Doherty was elected as an independent with the Anti H-Block group. In 1997 Sinn Féin’s Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin was elected on the first count and he cruised into the first seat in 2002 and 2007. I have no doubt that he will bring home one seat for Sinn Féin in 2012.

As mentioned this is a strong constituency for Fianna Fáil and they have always polled well, sometimes breaking the 50% barrier. In 2007 they polled 37% which was below their national average and they won 2 seats: Brendan Smith, Agriculture Minister from Cavan and Margaret Conlon newly elected TD from county Monaghan.

Cavan-Monaghan was a 4 seat constituency in 2007 because of the Ceann Comhairle Rory O’Hanlon, father of the well known comedian Ardal O’Hanlon, best known for his role as Father Dougal McGuire in Father Ted.

Cavan-Monaghan will be fought as a 5 seater in 2012 and therefore I predict that Fianna Fáil will hold both thier seats. The party polled 29% in Monaghan and 35% in Cavan in the local elections in 2009 and although their vote has dropped significantly nationwide, they are well placed to scrape in with their incumbents here.

Fine Gael is almost certain to take two seats here in 2012 due to the opening up of a 5th seat plus the rise in Fine Gael’s vote. The incumbent TD Seymour Crawford will retain his seat and he will likely bring in Senator Joe O’Reilly who narrowly missed out on the last seat in 2007.

Even during the Spring Tide of 1992 Labour did not gain a seat here and I don’t believe any Gilmore Gale will help them either. A lack of party infrastructure and not one single councillor in any of the two counties means that they will only serve as transfers to Fine Gael.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – Brendan Smith and Margaret Conlon
2 Fine Gael – Seymour Crawford and Joe O’Reilly
1 Sinn Féin – Caoimhghin O Caolain

Upset Prediction

Looking at the 2009 local elections, Fine Gael polled an impressive 45.64% in Cavan and 29.85% in Monaghan. This puts them at roughly 38% across the constituency. If they can boost their vote in Monaghan into the 40% range, like Cavan, then they are in the running for a 3rd seat. As mentioned, the Labour candidate will almost certainly be eliminated and this will provide a large chunk of transfers that I believe will go almost exclusively to Fine Gael.

It’s also less likely, but possible, that the elimination of a 3rd Fine Gael candidate could provide the sufficient transfers to help a Labour candidate over the line. Of course, it all depends on who they run. Labour won’t get anywhere without a strong team of canvassers and a high profile candidate across both counties.

This upset will only happen if Fianna Fáil’s vote drops further below 30% and if one of the two incumbents has a significantly higher vote than the other. In 2007 Brendan Smith polled over 50% higher than Margaret Conlon so it’s possible although it must be noted that Fianna Fáil’s vote has dropped the most in Cavan therefore I see both TDs votes being closer together in 2012.

Link: 2007 results

3 Fianna Fáil
1 Green Party
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

This 5 seat constituency is a Fianna Fáil stronghold. 47% of the vote gave them three safe seats in 2007 with two TDs elected on the first count. Since the establishment of the constituency in 1948 Fianna Fáil’s vote has never dropped below 40% and it is often in the high 40’s or even over 50%, as was seen in 2002, giving them 3 out of 4 seats when the Ceann Comhairle Seamus Pattison was automatically elected to the first seat. It’s for these reasons that Fianna Fáil will probably return 2 seats to Carlow-Kilkenny in 2012.

The Green Party will not retain their seat here next time. Mary White only received 8% of the vote last time with transfers helping her over the line. The Green Party, like Fianna Fáil will be starved of transfers next time and this will ensure the loss of Mary White’s seat. The most recent opinion polls have the Greens at 2% nationwide.

From 1961-2002 Labour had a seat in this constituency and their recent boost in the polls means that they will secure at least one seat in 2012. The locals in 2009 showed their support in both counties at around 18%, more than enough for a seat. 16.6% is the quota in a 5 seat constituency.

Fine Gael made a mess of their campaign here in 2007. With a vote of 30% they failed to elect 2 TDs even though they only needed an extra 3% in transfers. As a result of bad management the young Senator John Paul Phelan lost out to Mary White of the Greens. However, recent opinion polls have Fine Gael polling at 33% nationwide therefore 2 seats will be very manageable in 2012.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward
2 Fine Gael – Big Phil Hogan and John Paul Phelan
1 Labour – Whoever they choose will get a seat.

Upset Prediction

The local elections showed Fine Gael polling at 39% which is above their national poll. If Fine Gael can break into the 40%+ range then they have a shot at a third seat. However, this depends on a further drop in Fianna Fáil support and a split of their vote on election day. It would also require transfers from many other opposition parties.

It’s also possible for Labour to take a second seat. In 1992, during the Spring Tide, Seamus Pattison received 1.48 of a quota with no running mate to transfer too. 2 seats for Labour or 3 seats for Fine Gael is not impossible.

Firstly, it has to be said that I have no opinion whatsoever on Stag Hunting. This is a practice enjoyed by rural people, and not by a suburban man like myself. It’s for rural people and rural TDs to comment on rural issues. Therefore, it annoys me that a city man like John Gormley would seek to interfere with an issue he has little experience in, whether you are in favour or against the bill. Also it pains me that at a time when our people are in such economic distress that the Minister would seek to tend to our animals instead of our people. It’s clear where the Green Party’s priorities lie.

Today during the second stage Dáil debate on the Wildlife (Amendment) Bill 2010, numerous Fianna Fáil TDs spoke out against the ministers proposals. Their reasons centred on the effect to their local economies and there was much defence of animal welfare along with concerns about rural life. The following FF TDs spoke against the bill:

Mary Wallace – Meath East
Mattie McGrath – Tipperary South
Johnny Brady – Meath West
Thomas Byrne – Meath East
Sean Power – Kildare South

Fine Gael TD James Bannon said that he would regard the TDs as hypocrites if they didn’t vote against the legislation next Tuesday. I couldn’t agree more.

However, we all know that they will vote in favour of the bill because that’s what Fianna Fáil TDs do. They’ll speak up for their constituency but ultimately they’ll vote against their people. It’s the FF way of trying to please everyone at the same time. If you stand for everything then you stand for nothing!

Labour may have a strong uppercut with knockout one-liners and visible anger in the Dáil, led by Eamon Gilmore, however do they have a plan to save the country?

Both parties’ websites have policy pages. Labour’s is their “Our ideas and Policies” page while Fine Gael has a “recent policy catalogue” on its site. I have drawn from both these pages to compare the two parties.

Public Sector

Let’s first jump back to last year’s budget and to the thorny issue of public sector pay. Labour is well known as a political wing for the trade union movement and thus their pre-budget proposal was lacking in specific detail. Both Fine Gael and Labour committed to the government’s reduction of €1.3bn in the public sector pay bill however Labour only gave an aspiration to achieve this reduction through negotiations.

Fine Gael, on the other hand, came out with an extensive and detailed alternative budget that gave detailed breakdowns of where the money would come from. This specified that the €1.3bn would be made by a direct cut in pay to those earning above €30,000 in the public sector. There was no aspiration or hope for the future, just hard figures that spelled out the reality. Fine Gael even went above the €1.3bn suggested and proposed a further €500m reduction in the public sector pay bill through redundancies in the HSE, CIE and through the closing down of wasteful quangos.

Next, we come to the Croke Park deal, a sweet guarantee that ensures not a single pay cut or forced redundancy in the public sector unless there is a further deterioration in the economy. Seems pretty fair to me and that’s why Fine Gael has come out in favour of the proposal. We haven’t engaged in a massive campaign to promote the deal, or to influence union members. We’ve simply stated our position on the matter, a position the public are entitled to know.

However Labour have ducked and dodged this issue right from the beginning. They will not state any position on the deal and if we are to take their members view we can see that two motions were passed at this year’s party conference calling for the restoration of the budget pay cuts and an abolition of the pension levy! That’s the only position I’ve seen from Labour on this issue and so I am led to conclude that this is their policy position on the matter.

Banking

Labour and Fine Gael have roughly the same view on this issue, the establishment of a state run investment bank. This is the good bank option, as opposed to the government’s bad bank, NAMA. Fine Gael announced this policy first and then Labour followed suit months later with an almost identical proposal.

The main difference between the two parties is that Labour favours an ideologically lead nationalisation of the banks. This would be catastrophic for the banks because ultimately a bank belongs free in the marketplace. It’s almost like releasing an animal back into the wild where it belongs, with all the other animals. Keeping a bank nationalised is like keeping an animal in captivity.

Stimulus

Labour has no known policy for a stimulus package for the economy while Fine Gael has a plan to create over 100,000 jobs in the energy, communications and water sectors. It’s called NewERA and it’s a costed and well thought out plan to improve our infrastructure and create employment in the process. Sadly, once again Labour fails to even produce a plan on this, let alone to include specifics costings of their plan.

Health

I have to give Labour some credit in this area. They were the first party to endorse the principal of universal healthcare back in 2001. Fine Gael has since come around to the concept and has adopted a different model based on the Dutch system. The fundamental difference here again is specifics. The Fine Gael proposal has plenty of detail and they’ve even created a dedicated website to explain their policy and what it will provide to the public. Labour continues to only support the principal and it seems they simply want a full bureaucratic public healthcare system that has plagued our system and other health systems in the UK, France and elsewhere in Europe.

The Dutch model means that everyone has private health coverage, it has ended hospital waiting lists and the Fine Gael plan proposes FREE GP care for all, while keeping healthcare spending at its present levels. This can be done by cutting out all the managerial waste in the HSE and by employing competition between insurance companies. Fine Gael sees the benefit of the free market while Labour still remains in its backward mode of socialism and state control.

Education

Education is a huge priority for Fine Gael. Following the budget in December, Education Spokesman Brian Hayes organised large demonstrations against the removal of special needs teachers from a school in Tallaght. This school had 2/3 of its staff removed, in what can only be described as a heartless budget.

As well as protecting the vulnerable in our education system Fine Gael has two key proposals in the third level sector. The first is the re-introduction of third level fees. Our principal is that no student should pay at the door but instead pay after they have completed college. This would be a student loan system similar to many other countries across Europe and in the US. It’s fair to the students and it provides much needed funds to colleges and universities and this will maintain a high standard of facilities and service into the future.

Sadly the Labour party won’t budge on this issue. They aspire to a completely free third level sector, something that is neither practical nor affordable. Since free third level access was introduced in the 1990s it has only served to give higher income families an easy ride while it has not lead to a higher participation rate among lower income families. With Fine Gael’s proposal, supports can be given to those who need it, while those who can pay, pay.

Fine Gael has also recognised the economic benefits of overseas students coming to study in Irish universities. Simple measures that are outlined in their policy document would lead to tens of thousands of more students coming here each year.

Labour also has a policy document called “Priorities in Education”. Again, it’s another document that is purely aspirational and it doesn’t take any regard to our huge deficit and national debt. It even calls for an increase in education spending and to make our spending on education higher than European norms! We just don’t have the money to do that. I agree with Labour’s views on the separation of Church and school however otherwise it’s a completely useless document.

Half of the document is “Labour’s school for the 21st Century”. Firstly this school isn’t theirs, it’s designed by an architecture firm and it’s nothing new! My school in Knocklyon, built in 2000 and other schools like Malahide Community School have almost identical designs. Labour thinks it’s looking to the future, but it’s actually a decade behind! This cross section is almost identical to my school.

Could you say that anyone in Fine Gael showed weakness? I think not.

First I come to Richard Bruton. He’s probably the hardest to defend. He was flawed in the way he approached the confidence motion and the timing was awful. On the week of Brian Cowen’s confidence motion Bruton decides to declare civil war within the Fine Gael party. I accept Dennis Naughten’s reasoning that there’s never a bad time to make a right decision but there could have been a better time to make the move.

However, even then, Richard showed strength by standing up to his leader. Many within the party are fond of Enda and rightly so. He has brought unity to the party and electoral success, however in the wider public perception Kenny is not fit to lead the country. This has been made clear in both opinion polls and in discussions on the doorsteps and on internet forums over the past few years.

Many approaches have been taken to Kenny’s public appearance but to no avail. The general public still see him as weak, wooden and a bit of a bog-man superculchie (a view only found in urban areas, I might add). Bruton tapped into this public mood and he acted on it. We always complain that governments don’t listen to the people and that they don’t do what the people want, even though they are elected to do so. Bruton showed true political leadership this week by going with the public view as opposed to the party view.

Next we must judge the Fine Gael frontbench and those who backed Bruton. Again, they stood up to an unpopular leader and went with the public mood and that must be admired. This was a clear show of strength and it proves that Kenny had chosen a frontbench who knew how to serve the public interest and the public’s view.

Many now question the future of these “rebels” or “dissidents” however I feel that just because they voted “no confidence” in Enda, doesn’t automatically mean that they don’t have confidence in him. I know it’s hard to digest but it’s really quite simple. They think that Kenny is great but they just feel that Bruton is a little bit better.

Finally we must judge Enda and thankfully this is one area where the media has found consensus and where it has finally portrayed Kenny in a positive light. Everyone agrees that Kenny was decisive, he showed charisma during the debate and he came out champion at the end. Through the whole heave he showed strength and this is all the more reason why people should view him as a strong future Taoiseach. Sadly I believe that his negative perception will not ever be changed but we must work together as a party to make the most amount of gains at the next general election under his leadership.

It’s my belief that the divisions in the party are small and that this heave only shed a public light on existing divisions between members of the parliamentary party. It’s important that Kenny welcomes back most, if not all of the “rebels” and that he shows a united front to the electorate.

There’s two years until the next general election and that’s plenty of time to rebuild with everyone looking stronger already.

Much of the debate now focuses on how to deal with Anglo. Let it go to the wall or prop it up. It’s argued that letting it fail now would cost more to the taxpayer. “It’s too big to fail”.

This is a worthy discussion, however we need a bit of perspective here. Why are we bailing it out in the first place???

The government is gaining praise internationally because it is making the “tough decisions”. Bullshit!!

Maybe if Fianna Fáil and the PDs hadn’t let this happen in the first place, we wouldn’t have to bail them out.

People within banking have been saying since 2004 that the system was rotten. Easy credit allowed billions to be lent out with little chance of that money being returned.

Even in 2007 Michael Somers, then head of the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), told an Oireachtas committee that Anglo was in trouble, so he was reluctant to deposit money with it.

Somers was one of the brightest people working in government yet nobody would listen to him. Fianna Fáil didn’t have the balls to stop the madness before it was too late. And of course, 2007 was an election year!!

So, maybe FF have it right this time, maybe bailing out Anglo is our only option. BUT, who gave us this option in the first place? Who sent us down this one way street?? Fianna Fáil, and don’t you forget it!

I arrived Friday evening and the conference began with a Young Fine Gael gathering in one of the smaller conference rooms. President of YFG Barry Walsh spoke about the great success the party has had over this past year and he pointed out how Fine Gael is the only party with the right policies to lead the next government.

He dismissed the other youth parties such as ógra Fianna Fáil, ógra Sinn Féin, and Labour Youth who he described as “champagne socialists”. I couldn’t agree more and the crowds laughter and applause shows that they agreed too. However Enda Kenny who was now present did not laugh. He knows that he will probably have Eamon Gilmore as his Tánaiste in the next government and I think he would prefer if we did’t tarnish our fellow opposition, even if it’s tempting to do so.

Enda Kenny then addressed the gathering and he spoke forcefully and passionately on issues like Youth Unemployment, education, emigration and the wider economy. I have to say that Kenny gives much better speeches to smaller groups than he does to a large hall with TV cameras. He’s also better off the cuff than with a pre-written speech.

The next morning I was seated front row in the main hall for the discussion on jobs and the economy. “Getting Ireland back to work” was the main slogan and theme of the conference.

Seeing all our TDs and Senators who work on economic issues on the one stage really made me realise how skilled a team we have.

Simon Coveney began proceedings with a speech on his NewERA document, a plan to create over 100,000 jobs by investing in energy, water and broadband infrastructure.

Eddie Hobbs then echoed the need for this investment when he highlighted our aging energy transport network. He said that it’s like having only two parallel motorways and the rest of the routes are bicycle tracks! He also spoke about peak oil and how investing in renewable energy is crucial, now more than ever.

Later on, we heard from my own local TD Olivia Mitchell, spokesperson on arts, sports and tourism. Or should I say “Tourism, Culture and Sport”.  She slated the government’s €10 travel tax and how it is reducing tourism into places like Killarney. She called on the airlines to restore dropped routes if Fine Gael abolished the tax in government.

Finally there was a warm reception to Richard Bruton, our finance spokesman. He made it perfectly clear that we would not support the re-capitalisation of Anglo Irish bank and that the zombie bank should be closed down in an orderly fashion. Taxpayers money should not be thrown into a black hole, he said.

After lunch we made sure we had good seats for the political reform discussion. Phil Hogan gave a taster of the “New Politics” document and then members of the audience could make comments.

Many speakers objected to the abolition of the Seanad and it was good to see a fellow YFGer raise the lowering of the voting age to 16. Sadly this does not feature in the document but it is something I’ll be fighting to change within the party.

Next, I went to a small conference room where the competitiveness of our economy was being discussed. Transport was a key feature of the talk, which called for the privatisation of some bus services, particularly in Dublin. I warmly welcome this as long as a regular and well routed network is maintained in the capital.

The conference went into pause mode in the early evening, due to the rugby match, but at 7pm the loss to Scotland was the last thing on people’s minds. Before the presidential speech, many of our elected representatives led the buildup. Mairead McGuinness MEP hosted the evening, and she provided much humour and entertainment for the delegates. Leo Varadkar, Michael Ring and James Reilly all spoke passionately too.

Leo highlighted the key differences between us and the government, Michael Ring sang the praises of Enda Kenny, and James Reilly gave an emotional endorsement of our health policy and how it will radically transform our health service into a system we can be proud of.

Finally, at 8:30 Enda Kenny entered the room for his presidential address. As mentioned previously, he is not good in front of a television camera and he’s even worse with a prewritten speech, especially if that speech is badly written! As members, we know many of the policy positions so for me his speech was quite boring. However, I would have expected something more lively from him and to be honest I found the buildup more exciting. It was an anti-climax for me.

But, I was impressed by one line. He made it quite clear that any doctor who has not opened all their letters from GPs will not be paid, and that any hospital department that is also not up-to-date, will not be paid either. This makes perfect sense to me, and it is just another area where Fine Gael shows responsibility and common sense.

The plans make at least five fundamental changes to our political system and the idea is to make all the changes on the same day in what has been dubbed as “super referendum”.

The first problem I foresee with this plan is that so many changes are made in one vote. The First Lisbon Treaty referendum proved that the Irish electorate, when unsure, will reject something that they do not fully understand. Any one of these proposals could become a sticking point for public opposition, and any such referendum could easily be lost even when the rest of the proposals are worthy of acceptance.

The first, and most radical change proposed is the abolition of the Seanad. In principle, I agree with this proposal. Many Scandinavian countries have no difficulty with one parliament, in fact many countries with one parliament are more advanced than us. However, the abolition of one chamber needs to be met with a significant reforms in the other. This is where I feel the Fine Gael plan is lacking.

It is welcome to see the introduction of a list system to elect TDs, however, it seems that only 12 to 15 TDs will be elected this way. Also, if the political parties themselves are deciding on who is on their list then there is no benefit to democracy. Only party hacks, who a loyal enough to the system will be chosen. We need an open list system with more TDs elected this way to make a better change.

I welcome the proposal to reduce the term of the presidency from 7 to 5 years. While this will see a presidential election race more often, savings will be made by running this election alongside the European and local elections. It makes sense, but I feel that we are missing an opportunity to reform the office of the President. We spend millions every year on having a president, yet he/she has limited power and is, in effect, subservient to the government of the day. Either we move to a presidential system similar to the United States and France, or we abolish the office altogether.

Finally, it is good to see the rejection from the plan, of a proposal to introduce gender quotas. The measure was defeated at Fine Gael’s parliamentary party meeting last week. Dublin South East TD, Lucinda Creighton spoke forcefully against the proposal and I agree with her comments. Gender quotas would undermine existing female TDs, who have fought hard for their positions and it would provide an easy route for unsuitable women to enter the Dáil.

The Fine Gael national conference is this weekend and it is likely that the full policy document will be released by then.

To be fair, it must be said that Sargent showed honesty and integrity in his resignation. When the news broke of his wrongdoing he immediately knew that the game was up. By the same evening he had left his post as a junior minister and this reflected well on his character. In sharp contrast Willie O’Dea had to be dragged kicking and screaming from office. Only after Fine Gale tabled a motion of no confidence in him and after Dan Boyle withdrew his support via twitter did the Minister decide to resign.

Now, Willie O’Dea is whining and complaining about his fall from office in the media. In numerous interviews he has talked about how he is a victim of the political process? The simple reality is, Willie O’Dea is only a victim of his own actions. He was the one who slandered a political opponent, he was the one who lied to the High Court and he was the one who misled the Dáil on this matter.

I have no sympathy for him and the people of Limerick shouldn’t have either. Irish Politics is renowned for local favours where high profile ministers will bring investment to their constituencies. In 2007, nearly 20,000 people voted for Willie O’Dea but what good has he done to deserve so many votes? Gangland crime is still a pandemic in the city and job losses from places like Dell have made the city an unemployment blakspot.

As far as I’m concerned, Willie O’Dea is an embarrassment to politics in this country. He is nothing but an arrogant and tactless parasite who I am glad to see exterminated. However, Willie O’Dea is still a TD and it is very likely that he will contest the next general election.

Why is it, that a minister can act this way, resign, and then continue to represent the people as a TD? The simple fact is, that the government needs their support in Dáil votes, otherwise the government will fall. In order to keep itself in power the government will accept any low standard of ethics even if it means accepting support from two TDs who are accused of committing crimes.

When George Lee announced his decision to run in Dublin South last year, it was the push that got me involved with politics and with Fine Gael. I was so excited to meet him and I was privileged to help in his campaign. I believed his rhetoric about telling his grandkids that he did something when the country was on its knees. I also believed him when he said he’d run again at the next general election!

But the thing that pisses me off the most is that I trusted him. I trusted him so much that I canvassed relentlessly for him. Last summer I devoted two full weeks of my time to his campaign and I sacrificed much of my summer time for this.

I was even there when they counted his votes in the RDS, all 27,768 of them. No other TD in Dáil Eireann has ever received such a large number of votes. We always say that our TDs don’t have the support of the people, George Lee was the exception. He had our full support but he let us down. He couldn’t stand the heat so he got out of the kitchen.

But f**k him I say.

Now he can tell his kids that politics was too tough and that he left after only 9 months!

I ask anyone to point to a national opposition politician who can have a large impact after only 9 months. Many TDs have to wait 9 years until they are given a frontbench position. Enda Kenny waited 9 Dáil terms and went through 9 general elections before he was elected party leader in 2002. Politics is a slow game for life.

It really shows that George Lee had no patience and would not even settle with a frontbench position!

He says that his reasons are his lack of influence in party policy. Which areas of policy though?? He hasn’t specified one area in which he has had disagreement. I think we’d all like to know what the real problems were! Policies have to have a wide support from the parliamentary party. I think he just couldn’t have things his own way! I know that he’s a man to speak his mind but I was truly shocked when I heard the news today.

I can’t believe the news today
Oh, I can’t close my eyes and make it go away
How long, how long must we sing this song?

This means that we will say goodbye to the old Dublin Postcode system. It’s something that all of us know and it will be missed in many ways.

D4, a slang term born out of the Celtic Tiger will be no more. I should take this time to note however that the area of Dublin 4 doesn’t even begin to cover the area that would be considered “posh” in South Dublin. I don’t know why this area caught on as being more posh than anywhere else. My own area of D16 is casually termed D4 squared

Another custom this new postcode system will end is the class warfare style reference to the even and odd numbered Dublin Postcodes. The Northside has odd numbers while the Southside holds the even numbers. This led to certain connotations to certain postcodes.

No focking way I’m going into Dublin 15 roysh!!

A New European style Postcode system will end all this and it will make deliveries to our doors much easier. Let’s see someone try and slag off D1467 . I can’t be certain that’s what the new codes will look like but I imagine it will be similar to other countries.

In France they have a simple 5 digit number code like the US zip codes (e.g 90210), while in the UK it is a 6 or 7 character combination of numbers and letters. In Belgium it is only 4 digits and this is probably because they are a small county. I would envisage a similar situation here.

We may see more spam through our doorsteps as businesses have an easy way to address our houses however I don’t mind. I actually enjoy when pizza coupons and menus come through the door!!

What has Fianna Fáil done in the past few weeks to deserve 4% of the electorate swinging their way?

Well………nothing!

Unless you’re an alcoholic or a buyer of a new ’10 car you’ve no reason to change your vote to Fianna Fáil. And I doubt those two groups make up 4% of the electorate!

If anything there should be a drop in support for Fianna Fáil. They imposed a budget which hit the lowest paid in the public service and those on social welfare. Surely there were some votes to be lost from those two groups. Many of those votes were lost from previous budgets but this budget hit families by reducing child benefit and by imposing a carbon levy on fuels. This has impacted everyone and everyone is worse off because of the budget.

If people feel that they escaped the worse in budget ’10 then they are misinformed. The fact is that, there never should have been a savage budget like budget ’10 because if Fianna Fáil weren’t in power then this economic mess never would have occurred in the first place!!

People are being led to believe that they have to play their part and considering there’s a €22bn deficit that’s a fair message to send out. However, who created the €22bn hole?!?!?!?! Fianna F***ing Fáil that’s who!

The electorate in this country suffers from memory loss. We don’t remember the bad things that our politicians do and we’ve been led like sheep to the slaughter by FF governments who bought votes by excessive budgets like budget ’07, 6 months before polling day.

The voters of Ireland need to take a good hard look at Fianna Fáil and realise that they are not the best option on offer. I’m not going to do a Fine Gael plug here. I don’t need to! Even Labour would run a better government than Fianna Fáil!

However, also from early morning there were traffic jams on the roads leading to border towns like Newry and Enniskillen. Coincidence? I think not. There are private sector workers who had to take the day off to mind their kids who had no school to go to. However it’s likely that at least half of the shoppers were public servants who caused the 7 mile queue into Newry Town Centre this morning.

It’s a PR disaster for the Unions. General Secretary of IMPACT Peter McLoone dismissed this as “nonsense” on both TV3 and RTÉ. He said that public servants turned out in their “tens of thousands” to picket government departments and buildings. That’s great, but what were the other 200,000 public servants doing if only a few tens of thousands of them were out?

Also last night Dublin City saw huge volumes of people in its clubs and bars. One taxi driver commented that it was like a Friday or Saturday night with three times the fares for a Monday. The same taxi-man overheard a conversation between some of his public sector passengers. “They better hold the next strike on a Friday so we get a 3 day weekend”!

Oh poor cash strapped public servants. The world’s smallest violin playing the world’s saddest song just for you!

I passed my closed school today only to find one person on the picket, our Caretaker. Sure, some of the teachers were at the mass protest at the department of education but it seriously shows a lack of solidarity when he’s the only one there. He’d be the lowest paid of the staff of the school and so I sympathise with him. He was out in the cold while other teachers stayed in and corrected homework.

People on the dole should be furious about this. They’ve lost their Christmas Bonus and they are set to lose more from their support after next month’s budget. For many the loss of the bonus has meant that many will forgo buying presents this year with the cash going to repay bills or mortgages. They look at public servants who have the day off and who have the cash to spend up north or in packed shopping centres like Dundrum and they cringe.

This strike really has been a disaster. Sure the government saved a few bob from not paying the workers but it won’t be near the €70m that is borrowed everyday to pay for public services.

Next Thursday we have the same thing again. I can’t wait. I bet the queue to Newry will be 10 miles this time ?

The differences that lie between FF and The Greens makes me think about the likelihood of a Fine Gael/Labour co-alition. The is the right-left alternative that is likely after the next General Election however these two parties are just as incompatible as the present co-alition.

Labour will not budge on public sector cuts while Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar has made it clear that cuts have to be made in wages of public servants.

There is also a lack of consensus on the banks too. Fine Gael has its “Good Bank” plan while Labour wants temporary nationalisation of the banks. Now maybe the establishment of NAMA will end this issue but it’s still likely to be a contentious issue around a FG/Lab cabinet table.

Many will point to the present co-alition and say that it works to have two fundamentally different parties in government however the two situations are not the same. FF has 76 TD’s while the Greens only have 6. They hold the balance of power but their influence is restrained by those numbers. My fear is that disagreements in a FG/Lab
co-alition would bring down the government within a matter of weeks.

FG will get over 70 seats next General Election and Labour could get anything up to 30 based on current opinion polls. This puts Labour in a much better bargaining position than the Greens currently have with Fianna Fáil.

So, what is the ideal co-alition? Well, Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil actually! Not only would this see an end to civil-war politics in this country but it would eventually see the fall of the Fianna Fáil party I believe. The small party in government always gets screwed. We saw it with the PDs, we’re about to see it with the Greens and after going into bed with FF and FG in the 90′s, Labour’s Spring Tide was reduced to a mere wave in 1997.

A FG/FF co-alition would highlight the fact that FF is not needed. After one term, if the economy is back on track FG would get most of the praise at the expense of FF. Likewise such a co-alition would expose the left in Ireland and it would lead to the Labour party becoming the main opposition part in Ireland. I think it’s time we had a proper left-right divide in this country instead of the on-off centre right switching game between FG and FF.

Let’s unite the right and expose the populist, no cuts approach taken by Labour, Sinn Féin, The Socialists and other non-pragmatic left parties.

I believe the upcoming budget will eat further into the FF core vote and it could push their opinion polls standing down to under 15%. If this were to be replicated in a general election then FF could find itself with only 25 or so seats, less than what Labour will get, soaring FF to third place in the parties race. They’ve held first place since the foundation of the state. This fall in support could go FG’s way to push it over the 83 seats required for an overall majority however I’m doubtful about whether that will materialise. Labour’s unwavering support for maintaining wages will go down well with the electorate and if they can continue to play populism in their favour then many of the FF seats could swing their way.

So, in the next General Election FG could find themselves just shy of the 83. Labour with well over 30 seats and FF somewhere in the 20s. Independents could support FG but the likes of Maureen O’Sullivan, Finian McGrath and Michael Lowry would not be jumping to support a FG government characterised by cuts unless there were financial injections to their respective constituencies, something this country cannot afford!

Anyway, there won’t be another chance to topple this government until after the budget. We’ll have to wait until then to see how public opinion swings during what will be the coldest winter of discontent this country has ever known.

Today SIPTU, the countries largest union said that it was seeking a 3.5% pay rise for health service workers that they are owed after the 2008 benchmarking. They have threatened industrial action should the government refuse to bow down and kiss their feet!

James Larkin once said

“Comrades – We are living in momentous times.”

There isn’t a quote more appropriate to describe what we face in this country. €400 million leaks from this country every week and this is before €54 billion is spent on NAMA.

It’s clear from these figures that extra money has to be raised to fill that gap in either the form of increased taxation or cuts in public spending. The former has been ruled out by Brian when he said:

“Read my lips, No tax hikes”

So, cuts it is then.

The bulk of these will have to come from the public sector wages and pensions. They are in secure jobs vs. the near half a million unemployed from the private sector, they have secure pensions vs. a loss in the value of pensions for many private sector workers and they are paid significantly more that their public sector counterparts. The pension levy has reduced this wage gap however it still stands at around 10%, or in the case of lower paid workers there’s a difference of over 15%.

It is for these reasons that there has to be a reduction in public sector wages instead of a ridiculous 3.5% rise.

The country can’t afford it and even if we could it would be an insult to the thousands of private sector workers who are struggling through this crisis too.

SIPTU should wake up and smell the coffee. Their threat of industrial action would not only severely damage the economy, were it to be acted upon, but it would also put at risk the lives of thousands of patients in the health service who would fall victim to such action.

This controversy follows her appearance at the Mahon Tribunal in 2006 where she defended the €32,500 she received from property developers in the area.

Only tax evaders above €30k have their names published and Cllr. Devitt’s crime was as high to have her listed. It’s deplorable that this councillor is a member of Fine Gael and it is a tarnish on our image of being the party of no corruption. We still retain this title in comparison to Fianna Fáil but that is not enough.

Fine Gael will sooner or later become the largest party in Ireland and power cannot go to our heads like it has to Fianna Fáil. We must continue to be a clean party that does not allow anyone who evades tax in the party and we must set an example to other parties.

That is why I’m calling for the immediate dismissal of Cllr. Anne Devitt from the Fine Gael party.

The two most prominent political polls in Ireland are the Irish Times/TNS MRBI polls and the RedC/Sunday Business Post Poll. Both are always cited as being proof of one political parties support or they are dismissed as a “snapshot in time” by the government. In some respects both sides are right however it’s clear after the most recent polls from these outlets that either one is wrong or they’re both wrong!

One says Fianna Fáil are on 17% the other says 24% and both polls were released within a week of each other.

Both will claim that they are representative of all 43 constituencies however RedC’s poll of FF on 24% leads me to believe that they just got lazy and decided to hold the poll in Offaly.

To take an average of these polls you’ll find FF on 21%. Also taking the average Green Party vote gives you 4%. This is 25% still in support of government parties yet only 15% still claim to support the government.

Are 1 in 10 of irish voters retarded?

YES!

While the party is set to become the largest party in Ireland, surpassing Fianna Fáil’s number of Dáil seats for the first time it’d be a miracle to get more than 83 seats in the 166 seater Dáil. Fine Gael currently have 51 seats.

Fine Gael will get its largest number of seats ever, and Fianna Fáil its lowest. Under normal circumstances this statement would imply a FG majority however there is one group of politicians that will see the largest rise in support in the next general election: the left.

Labour, People Before Profit, The Socialist Party and Sinn Féin will all be out in force next election and they’re all due to take Dáil seats. Labour could get around 30 seats, up from 20, PBP will get at least one seat, maybe 2. The socialist party should get two seats, and Sinn Féin is looking to get 7-10 seats, up from 4. Altogether left-wing parties will get around 40+ seats in the next Dáil based on current polls.

However should Fine Gael actually get over 83 seats then this must go hand in hand with a Labour or Sinn Féin increase. This would probably put the left vote anywhere up to 50 seats.

Independents could get up to 10 seats however a more realistic approach says they’ll get around 5.

So let’s say that Fine Gael get a safe 85 seats in the next election. Add that to the 55 seats mentioned above and you have 140 of the seats filled. Only 26 seats left for Fianna Fáil?

On 17% of the vote FF statistically have 28 seats however it’s certain that they’ll get more. Fianna Fáil is the party of power and it won’t be giving up that title too easily. They always get more seats than their % vote suggests. If we look at the 2002 general election we see that FF got 41% of the vote. Multiply this by 1.66 (dail seats equation) and you get roughly 69 seats. However in 2002 Fianna Fáil got 81 seats!

So, it’s fair to say that unless there is another erosion in the seemingly endless ‘core’ FF vote then we won’t see them on less than 35 seats or so.

At present there is scope for a FG minority government however who would support them? PBP, socialists and Sinn Féin are all radicals so that’s 10 votes immediately out of consideration. This only leaves independents and many of them would come under serious fire for supporting more cuts that FG will have to make in government. This is unworkable for them even if there would be a financial benefit for his or her constituency (The Jackie Healey-Rae method).

So until such time as support is there for Fine Gael, themselves and Labour better get used to each other and maybe try and find consensus on issues such as banking.

One upside of the presumed co-alition is that it will be the first co-alition to exceed 100 seats. This is well above the 83 requirement and it will, in 5 consecutive years set another record.

Fine Gael’s second term in a row

The High Court is to hear the case of a Co Tipperary farmer who is seeking to block the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, due to be held on October 2nd.

John Gerard Burke claims the Lisbon vote of the 12 June 2008 should be declared as passed and that the proposed second vote be declared an act in breach of the constitution.

It’s clear that some people don’t see the difference between Lisbon 1 and Lisbon 2.

We have legal guarantees now. They’ve secured our commissioner, clarified our positions on abortion and neutrality and it’s made it clear that Lisbon has no influence on our tax laws.

I can understand that the text of the treaty is not altered however the guarantees will be considered under any further legal interpretation of the treaty and so we find ourselves with a very different referendum than the last time.

The economic landscape has also changed fundamentally and it’s clear that we need Lisbon to retain favourability for Foreign Direct Investment and to remain eligible for economic support by the EU.

Lisbon 2 is hugely different to Lisbon 1 so I think this case will be wrapped up fairly quickly.

The Kerry South TD has been embroiled in an expenses controversy for the best part of this summer over his waste of taxpayers money during his time as Minister for Arts, Sports and Tourism. Such personal costs included over €400 to pay for a 3 minute limo ride across the runway at Heathrow Airport in London. A free shuttle bus is offered at the airport.

All in all freedom of information requests have shown that Mr. O’Donoghue wasted tens of thousands of taxpayers money in the space of a few years.

Since the Ceann Comhairle is an independent position in the Dáil the Taoiseach can’t fire him (not that Biffo has the balls for that anyway) so he can only be removed by a vote of no confidence. Brian Cowen can’t even publicly criticize him.

It’s clear that the Ceann Comhairle’s position is untenable however if he wins the vote then it will only waste more precious Dáil time and the blame for this will fall at the opposition. Earlier in the year the debate for the motion of no confidence against the government replaced the time scheduled to debate the Ryan Report into child abuse. Support groups of the victims planned a protest outside the Dáil on that day only to find a different debate taking place.

When there is a tie in a Dáil vote, the CC has the casting vote. The government’s majority is slowly dwindling and it could happen that John O’Donoghue will play a much larger role in politics than he currently does. The opposition do not want important debates such as the NAMA legislation to be decided by a man who has no credibility.

However there won’t be a tied vote anyway because the government still has a majority, for now.

An overcrowded class is defined as 30+ for a general class and 24+ for a practical class such as Music, Art or Woodwork.

The union has denied that classes would be left unattended saying that this would be “unprofessional and irresponsible” however their guidelines do essentially leave classes without a teacher.

Should a class be overcrowded the teacher must escort the pupils to a “safe place” (I thought all schools were safe?) where they can be supervised by a principal or deputy principal.

So what happens then? Does the teacher go back to the staff room and sip a cup of tea while the principal minds the class? Principals or Deputy Principals have a tough enough job running an entire school without having to deal with individual classes, that’s the job of frontline teachers.

The TUI has warned that it may take disciplinary action against teachers who disobey the instruction.

Then the green corner, Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael have a heavy-weight out, surely the government will send either a minister, a junior minister or a Green Party TD to debate. No, all they gave us was Frank Fahey! He quite incorrectly described George Lee’s proposals as “11th hour” when all the proposals were made by Fine Gael before George Lee was even a politician, earlier this year. Also considering Fahey is deep in investor circles means he’s not exactly the most appropriate person to debate the NAMA legislation. See here for more information on his conflicts of interest in property and investments.

The most worrying part of this discussion was when Frank Fahey was asked about the property market. He was asked whether the market would rebound. His response was most worrying. “It has already started……”!

Also equally disturbing and alarming was his attitude to spending a suggested 30 billion euro of taxpayers money.
“It’s not. It is ECB money which will be borrowed at one and a half per cent”.

What planet is this guy from?

The Galway West TD was one of the many unknown TD’s we saw this week out to debate NAMA. Where’s the Taoiseach, where’s Brian Lenihan? To be fair the Minister for Finance did make an appearance mid-week to respond to Fine Gael’s bank proposals however it’s clear by the inaction of the rest of the cabinet that NAMA isn’t up for discussion, that it’s a done deal.

It’s not, and the protests scheduled for September 12th and 19th will prove that the public don’t see it as a done deal.

Former Minister for Women’s Affairs and former Fine Gael Dublin South TD Nuala Fennell has died, she was 74. Nuala did great work for women’s rights during the Fitzgerald government during the 80′s and she represented Dublin South well. It’s sad to see one of my former TD’s pass away. May she Rest in Peace.

I’ve a better solution to the cost of uniforms. Do away with uniforms altogether!

This would put hundreds of euro back into the pockets of families so they can reinvest the money into the important costs of education. Tutoring, books, grinds and stationary.

Frank Flannery must be feeling like a complete idiot right now.

This photo taken during the week shows Kerry North TD, Martin Ferris collecting the two men convicted for the murder of Garda Jerry McCabe as they were released from Castlerea prison.

The Sinn Féin TD, once believed to be a member of the IRA Army Council has been condemned for his actions and I strongly condemn it as well.

Jerry McCabe was an innocent Guard who didn’t even have time to draw his own gun as he was struck down by 14 bullets in 1996. He was protecting an An Post van with another detective on June 6th when a jeep rammed their car forcing them to stop. The men from the van then riddled him an his parter with bullets killing him instantly and seriously injuring his partner.

Sinn Féin has consistently campaigned for the release of these thugs under the Good Friday Agreement and this week Pearse  McCauley and Kevin Walsh walked free into the arms of Martin Ferris.

It’s clear form this that Sinn Féin are still a party of violence and a party of the IRA. This collusion is surely the nail in the coffin of the short lived FG/SF co-alition rumour. Not under any circumstances will Fine Gael do business with Sinn Féin in national government and if such a deal comes to pass after the next general election I will have no problem in canceling my membership with the party.

Today the government launched it’s legislation to set up NAMA – the national asset management agency.

This was met by many sound-bites from the opposition and the most of these were seen on the RTÉ 6.1 News. Arthur Morgan of Sinn Féin and Rurai Quinn of Labour both gave their reactions. They were negative and they highlighted the risks involved to the taxpayer. They also, however, drew attention to their own beliefs. They both want to nationalize the banks. Both were vocal on this however Richard Bruton failed to outline the Fine Gael plans.

Instead he gave another opposition style bashing of the government while providing no alternative. Even though we do have an alternative.

It’s very simple. The government wants a bad bank, we want a good bank. Richard Bruton himself wrote our policy document on it, yet he didn’t mention it tonight and it is rarely mentioned by anyone else in Fine Gael either. It must be publicized that we do have policies and we do have a plan for this country.

I think Richard Bruton should be the party leader however he needs to be more vocal on how we would do things. This goes for everyone Fine Gael member in the Oireachtas.

I believe that if Kenny steps down then the front bench would be an unstoppable team of Bruton as taoiseach and George Lee as the Finance Minister. We could even achieve an overall majority in the Dáil. Kenny is the only thing standing in the way.

Ok, maybe I’m making a meal out of nothing but this is just another example of government incompetence.

Today Taoiseach Brian Cowen is opening a new stretch of the M6 between Athlone and Ballinasloe. All the speed limit signs on the new dual carriageway currently display 100km/h however in 36 days the road will be designated a motorway with a 120km/h speed limit. To allow this, all the signs must be replaced!

Thankfully a large protest at the event ensured it wasn’t the usual cosy cutting of tape affair.

One thing that I had found astonishing was the use of signage for the National Development plan. Everywhere you go across the country there are signs like the one above for projects that were finished a long time ago, under the 2000-2006 project.

Many of these signs are also very inappropriately placed. One I saw recently was a huge sign for the national broadband scheme. It was on the main street of a rural town. There is no central place for broadband and you definetly couldn’t see any work happening so it really was a pointless sign. Nobody passing through cares that you have broadband and the local residents surely don’t need to be reminded.

There are huge political implications from these signs. The centre text reads “Funded by the Irish Government”. These signs are Fianna Fáil posters in disguise!

There’s even one of these signs in my school grounds. It refers to our school’s extension. Again like the above sign it only quotes the EU and the government as funders. In my school we fundraised tirelessly to raise the money needed however no government sign is acknowledging this!

Another sign that I feel is redundant are the Special Olympics 2003 signs. These dot the countryside in every town that hosted athletes from different countries. These signs were great at the time and the idea for each town to house a country was a very successful exercise. It’s the only decentralisation plan that the government has to its credit. However these signs are now confusing to tourists and to the younger population who don’t know about the event 6 years ago.

All these useless signs should be sent to the scrap heap and they should be made to better use elsewhere.

Today a second Sinn Féin councillor resigned for the party. This time it was Louise Minihan who was elected as a Sinn Féin candidate for Ballyfermot/Drimnagh ward on Dublin City Council. This follows Christy Burke who left shortly after the local elections citing a lack of support from the party as his reasons. This was huge as Burke was until then Sinn Féin’s longest serving councillor. Louise Minihan has blamed the party of lacking commitment to its socialist and republican values.

Defections are not unusual but they are uncommon. During the celtic tiger hardly anyone left their parties and even now it’s only confined to the likes of Joe Beehan, leaving Fianna Fáil over the education cuts. This was understandable as the cuts were unfair and that is just one of many reasons to leave Fianna Fáil. We are bound to see more defections from Fianna Fáil even though many describe it as a cult or religious like party with devotion higher above any other party.

Defections are a sign of weakness in a party and it appears that there’s an underlying problem in Sinn Féin. Many councillors in the South-East also complained about a lack of support from the party leaders and it surprises me that such a small party in the South of Ireland couldn’t have it’s Leader or even it’s Deputy leader visit all the candidates. This also highlights a possible structural deficiency in the country’s oldest party. Fine Gael was hit hard in ’02 because of bad party structures and bad campaigning (oh and Michael Noonan!). However they learned from their mistakes and built themselves up to become the largest party in local government.

Then there’s the ideological deficit. Cllr. Minihan was quite accurate when she talked about Sinn Féin being socialist and following republicanism. They are the two cornerstones of Sinn Féin ideology, yet they are the two things than she highlights as having been lost.

Personally I don’t see it. Remember that Sinn Féin are the only party in Ireland where you can buy an IRA t-shirt from their online store. While I disagree totally with this it’s hardly a deficiency in their core values.

Then there’s socialism. I have a lot of respect for Sinn Féin’s four TD’s as they come across as hard working honest people who care deeply for the well being of the lowest in society. However again I disagree with their policies and I don’t think I’ve heard a single measure they’d enact to address the recession. But again it’s clear from their 4 TD’s that they’re socialists. On the left wing scale Sinn Féin lies somewhere between Joe Higgins and Eamonn Gilmore. And remember anywhere near Joe Higgins has to be socialism. (I’m near him by surname but I guess I’m exempt from the rule.)

So while I don’t think Sinn Féin have dropped any of their core values it’s true that their support is down. They failed to capitalise on government protest votes as effectively as FG/Lab have. They left this years elections with almost the same number of councillors and they lost their MEP for Dublin.

I’d be doubtful as to whether a general election could go any better. Mary Lou McDonald is a certain to run in Dublin and it’s likely she’ll get elected. This would bring Sinn Féin to 5 seats however this would only be a small gain compared to the gains likely by FG/Lab and it’s also likely that this support could eat into SF’s 4 sitting TD’s.

Either way Sinn Féin is facing trouble. Once seen as a party of government within a decade it’s looking likely that they’ll continue to struggle in the South for some time.

Most of us agree that sanctions need to be applied to Iran, as is needed to North Korea and Burma etc. However when these sanctions put at risk the well being of that nation’s citizens it’s clear that sanctions are not the right way.

Today 168 people died in Iran when an old Russian Aircraft from 1987 crashed into the ground creating a massive crater on impact. Much of Iran’s fleet is old and out of date. This causes huge risks for flyers. The oil rich nation could easily upgrade and improve its fleet if it wanted too however sanctions from the US prevents this.

As a result there are virtually no Airbus or Boeing planes in Iran.

The blame for this lies ultimately with the US who refuse to allow planes and their parts into the country. People have died because of this sanction and it has to stop now.

Yesterday during a debate on the minimum wage, Leo Varadkar asked the Minister about a leaked document he found online about the sensitive issue. The Minister’s response was not only a light year away from a proper answer but it was also a cheap shot at the Fine Gael TD and an insult to all internet users:

Given that I have much more to be doing than reading The Irish Times’ – and for that matter, from what I can see you spend 99.9 per cent of your time on the internet, and on the computer – I haven’t time to be reading The Irish Times for what they have to say… what I can say say is – I cannot, and it is my responsibility not to, make any public pronouncements [on this issue] on the basis we have to adjudicate within the department of enterprise, trade and employment…

Every time there is a small jobs announcement of a few dozen or so, the Tánaiste is always there to push her own profile and to pretend that the government is creating substantial jobs. These jobs thankfully are in the IT sector however the support she gives to these jobs is undermined now by her statement.

I always find it confusing that Minister Coughlan will always show up at a small jobs announcement yet she’ll never be there at the big job losses. When Dell shed 2,000 jobs in Limerick, the Minister should have been there. When SR Technics shed 1,000 jobs, the Minister should have been there. The post of employment Minister can’t be selective in being there for the good news. The Tánaiste needs to show that she cares about the jobs being lost just as much as the jobs being created.

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SIPTU president Jack O’Connor said that it was a stand against the profits of employers who are trying to drive down wages to their own benefit. I’ve never heard such crap. There are firms, particularly in construction going out of business everyday and one of the main reasons for this is that their wages are too high to maintain. That’s also why many employers are lowering wages. It’s an accepted fact amongst all economics and observers that we became a high cost and high wage economy. Now it’s time to go back the other way. Wage reductions are needed across all sectors, particularly at the top.

It is unacceptable that any workers group demand a pay rise in a time when we need to reduce costs, including wages. Electricians want to up their hourly rate to €24! People working in supermarkets only earn half the money and I don’t believe any trade is worth twice that. Electricians are skilled workers however they are below the likes of electrical engineers and the amount of time it takes to become an electrician is much less. I’m guessing that you could probably become one within a year or two.

Electricians benefitted immensely during the boom with small and large scale projects to be found everywhere across the country. From Office buildings to bathrooms, plugs and lights were needed and the Electricians did those jobs professionally. Electricians have also benefitted from nixers during the Celtic Tiger with no amount of that money going into tax. Fitting dozens of down lighters into South Dublin kitchens was a popular job I’m told. They are of course very complex and for some reason you can’t get energy efficient bulbs for them!!!

If this ridiculous strike goes ahead then electricians will pull construction projects to a halt. Construction firms are already feeling the pinch of the recession and this won’t help them. Consumers would also be left out as repairs on houses cannot be made. This could leave many people in the dark!

The stance taken by their employers is equally startling. They’re seeking a 10% pay cut which I fell is also excessive. I think both sides need to meet somewhere in the middle. The TEEU union needs to stop being greedy and try instead to maintain pay at current levels for their workers and the employers need to bring their demands down to something around 5%.

It’s likely that this strike will go ahead however it will not generate any public support. I certainly won’t give it any backing and most people will be shocked when the demand of 11% reaches the headlines. After about a week the strike will be over and everything will be back to normal. Both sides will then agree on something a little more reasonable.

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1. Change the holiday dates of the Dáil so that there is never a gap of longer than a month. The current summer recess of 3 months is a luxury only endured by secondary school students and their teachers and even we only get 2 weeks during Christmas. (TD’s get 4!). This change would mean that the Dáil would have no end. It would run continuously with spaced breaks to ensure TD’s have holidays and time to catch up with constituency duties etc. A Dáil with no end would not have a backlog of bills to be passed and it would ensure that all legislature is scrutinized and that amendments can be made orderly and can be considered properly.
2. When the Dáil broke for 3 hours a few weeks ago both side of the house were to blame. The opposition underestimated it’s speaking time however the government had no bills in backup to be discussed. This must become a mandatory system where the government can have a bill in reserve. This will ensure efficient running of the house and it wouldn’t leave time wasted.
3. Finally we need to increase the amount of time that the Dáil spends in session. Currently it sits less days than I do in school and the total time would be less also. I know TD’s and ministers have many other tasks to do and many of those aren’t even in Dublin however there will always be someone around to speak in the house, after all there are 166 TD’s. Keeping the Dáil open 5 days a week would be a very positive step and it would give TD’s who normally wouldn’t have an opportunity to speak a chance to air their views. It also puzzles me that the Dáil starts at 10.30 am when most workers are at their desks by 9. This also needs to be changed.

I think many of these measures would have solved the problems we saw these past few weeks and there is no doubt that my proposals are pro-democracy.

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