David Higgins

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael
1 Green Party

Analysis

Dublin South is a large five seat constituency that often swings with national moods. No seat is safe here and that’s why it is so tightly fought. I can safely predict 4 of the seats however the 5th seat is anyone’s guess. I live in this constituency and even I can’t call it!

Fianna Fáil has always held two seats here; Tom Kitt and the late Seamus Brennan. In 2012 Fianna Fáil will hold one seat however a second is unlikely. Shay Brennan (son of Seamus) is eager to run and Tom Kitt’s intention not to run again leaves at least another place open on the ballot. I think the ballot paper will include Senator Maria Corrigan, Shay Brennan (or sister Cllr Aoife Brennan) and Cllr John LaHart. LaHart would do very well in picking up votes here in Knocklyon and Rathfarnham. There’s no telling which candidate will take the seat. Whoever is selected for the bye-election is likely to take a seat in 2012.

Fine Gael held 3 seats here during the 1980s and until George Lee resigned, there were 3 Fine Gael seats here. Olivia Mitchell and Alan Shatter hold seats here at present and whoever is selected for the bye-election will be the third candidate on the ballot paper. 3 seats was looking likely until George Lee left however now it’ll be difficult for Fine Gael to win 3 seats in 2012.

Labour will field Senator Alex White and another councillor. Either Aidan Culhane or Lettie McCarthy. Alex White will easily get a seat while the other Labour candidate will be in the fight for the 5th seat.

Green Minister Eamon Ryan will be in a tough fight for the last seat too. All Green TDs are heavily reliant on transfers and these dried up during the 2009 local elections. He’ll need to pull out a strong personal vote in order to survive. He’ll also need a boost in the national economy to deflect blame for his part in supporting the government.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Alan Shatter and Olivia Mitchell
1 Fianna Fáil – Maria Corrigan, Shay Brennan or John LaHart
1 Labour – Alex White

5th seat fought between: Eamon Ryan (Green), Labour councillor, 3rd Fine Gael candidate, 2nd Fianna Fáil candidate!

It’s going to be seriously close!!!

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Labour

Analysis

Dublin North West is a three seat constituency mainly comprising the Ballymun-Finglas LEA. Fianna Fáil has held 2 out of 3 seats here since 1992 however this is set to change in 2012 with both seats likely to be lost. The two sitting TDs are Minister Pat Carey and the former Taoiseach’s brother Noel Ahern. With a 2009 local result of only 16% the party needs a miracle to hold even one seat in this constituency.

My advise is only to run one candidate. Two candidates will split the vote and both TDs will find themselves unelected. Noel Ahern is 65 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he decided not to seek re-election. I’m expecting his already retired brother to do the same! The flip side of this is that it removes any personal votes Ahern would have had. This leaves Minister Pat Carey to soak up as many (or as little) Fianna Fáil votes that are there.

Fine Gael is also struggling in the constituency. The party hasn’t held a seat here since 1997 and Cllr Dr Bill Tormey will have a huge challenge to get near a seat. The locals also show the party at 16% so I don’t see a Fine Gael seat here either.

This immediately rules out both main parties!

Sinn Féin is very strong in the constituency. The locals gave the party 25% of the vote, so if Dessie Ellis runs again he’ll top the poll this time. The local councillor missed out on a seat in 2007.

Labour is even stronger in the constituency and they’ll be looking for two out of three seats in 2012. The sitting TD is Roisin Shortall and she is likely to be joined by first time councillor John Lyons. Only 33, Lyons topped the poll in 2009 with 1.33 of a quota! The locals show the party at 32%, which is short of the near 50% needed for two seats, however if Fine Gael is eliminated like 2007 then most of those transfers will go to Labour.

2012 Prediction

2 Labour – Roisin Shortall and John Lyons
1 Sinn Féin – Dessie Ellis

Upset Prediction

Fianna Fáil holds a seat: If Noel Ahern decides to retire then Pat Carey has a chance or retaining his seat instead of Labour’s gain. However it’ll take a turnaround in national opinion of Fianna Fáil to allow this to happen. And that’s remains unlikely.

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Dublin North Central is a three seat constituency composed of Artane Whitehall, Howth-Malhide and Donaghmede LEA wards. A four seater until 2002, it would always return two Fianna Fáil TDs with former cabinet Minister Michael Woods holding his seat here since the constituency’s creation in 1981.

Woods (74) is almost certain not to contest the next general election and this leaves Fianna Fáil with an interesting selection process. Former TD and now Senator Martin Brady may want to run and there’s a relatively young Fianna Fáil councillor in each of the 3 LEA wards, including Eoghan O’Brien (27) brother of Dublin North TD Darragh O’Brien.

These candidates may be able to separate themselves to the hated senior Fianna Fáil ministers but I don’t think the party can keep its seat here in 2012. In the 2009 local elections, the party only received 19% of the vote and this is well off the 25% needed for one seat.

Fine Gael currently holds one seat in the constituency and the party should be able to hold this seat comfortably in 2012.

This leaves two seats up for grabs and the real question is whether Labour will take two or whether Sinn Féin can take a seat also.

Sitting Labour TD Tommy P Broughan will probably top the poll and there’s a menu of 5 Labour councillors in the area to run alongside him. In 1992 Labour won two seats out of four here during the Spring Tide. The “Gilmore Gale” is expected to be much larger and in the 2009 local elections, Labour won over 30% of the vote. This is far from the 50% needed for two seats however Sinn Féin transfers mainly to Labour and they won 12% of the vote in 2009. This can be expected to rise somewhat in 2012.

The last seat will be a close fight between Sinn Féin’s Larry O’Toole and the second Labour candidate. If Tommy Broughan’s vote is significantly larger than his running mate then O’Toole could edge ahead of the 2nd Labour candidate and get elected instead. Labour’s task will be to balance their vote between both candidates. This will be down to the level of posters and leaflets that are distributed and the profile of the second candidate. None of these factors can be predicted at this stage so I’m leaving this last seat open.

2012 Prediction

1 Labour – Tommy Broughan
1 Fine Gael – Terence Flanagan
1 Labour or Sinn Féin – 2nd Candidate or Larry O’Toole

Upset Prediction

Fianna Fáil holds its seat: A noticeable turnaround in the economy allows a young candidate to take a seat instead of Sinn Féin or the second Labour candidate.

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Independent

Analysis

Dublin North Central is a three seat constituency mainly composed of Clontarf and it’s surrounding areas. My prediction for this constituency is very simple so I’ll be quick.

Richard Bruton topped the poll with a quota in 2007 and I’ve no doubt he’ll be re-elected next time. There’s talk about a running mate, maybe Dublin Lord Mayor Gerry Breen however I only see one seat here for Fine Gael.

Labour are almost certain to pick up a seat as they set to make big gains in the capital. Councillor Aodhan O Riordain will run and I think he’ll probably be elected on the first count. He will be taking Independent TD Finian McGrath’s seat. I don’t see McGrath taking his seat back again. He was reliant on Labour transfers last time and now with Labour ahead of him, he just won’t last.

Believe it or not, I’m giving the last seat to Fianna Fáil. Ivor Callely will not be running in 2012 however Sean Haughey will, and he is a very popular candidate in the constituency. I’m told there’s a core vote of people who still vote for the Haughey name and this will see him over the line.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Richard Bruton
1 Labour – Aodhan O Riordain
1 Fianna Fáil – Sean Haughey

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Green Party

Analysis

Dublin North is a four seats constituency that covers most of North County Dublin including locations like Malahide and Swords.

In 2002 Fine Gael’s Nora Owen famously lost her seat and in 2007 it was won by Dr. James Reilly, Fine Gael’s health spokesman and now Deputy Leader of the party. In 2009 the party won nearly 20% of the vote, so in 2012 Reilly will easily top the poll if he runs alone. Even if there is a running mate, transfers will come his way.

Also looking at the locals we see Fianna Fáil on 14%! This is a dismal result and at this rate they will not return any of their two sitting TDs: Darragh O’Brien or Michael Kennedy. They will also be starved for transfers and so I predict that they will both loose their seats in 2012.

Labour was very successful in the local elections, winning 28% of the vote. In 1992 during the Spring Tide Sean Ryan won 34% of the vote to elect him with 1.7 of a quota. We’re expecting the Gilmore Gale to be even bigger, especially in Dublin so I predict that Labour will win two seats here in 2012. This is a massive shift however if Ryan had fielded a running mate in 1992 they would have gone from 0 to 2 seats also.

Senator Brendan Ryan will run for Labour again and he will be joined by any one of Labour’s 6 councillors in the constituency. Don’t ask me who because it could be anyone!

The socialist party’s Clare Daly will poll very well again however I think that she will fall short of a seat. The party didn’t break 10% in the locals and boundary changes have taken a chunk of swords out of the constituency. Swords is her base so this damages her vote, a lot.

Trevor Sergent will run for the Greens again and I think he will retake his seat, barely. Trevor is the longest serving TD in this constituency and it’s likely he has a personal vote. This gives him a strength above all the other candidates. Many people would have voted for him since 1992 and while many will dismay at the Greens in government, there will also be many who’ll give Trevor a vote, as opposed to the Greens.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Dr James Reilly
2 Labour – Brendan Ryan and a councillor
1 Green – Trevor Sergent

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
1 Labour
1 Green Party
1 PD

Analysis

Dublin Mid West is a very unique constituency in that is has only existed since 2002. In 2007 it became a four seater and it elected a mixed bunch of TDs. Current Government Whip John Curran (FF), Minister for Health Mary Harney (Independent, formerly PD), all round loud mouth Paul Gogarty (Green) and Labour TD Joanna Tuffy.

This constituency will see radical change in 2012 due to the increase in Fine Gael and Labour’s vote, plus the demise of the two junior co-alition parties; The Green Party and the Progressive Democrats. Mary Harney is now an independent and I believe she won’t run again. There would be no point and I very much doubt that she would even get elected. I think she’ll take the ministerial pension and enjoy her retirement. It sounds much more appealing than spending 5 more years as an unnoticed independent TD with no power.

I also believe that we won’t see Paul Gogarty returning to the Dáil either. His recent outbursts in the Dáil and publicity stunts plus the collapse of the Green vote in the constituency will all go against him in 2012. Gogarty was heavily reliant on transfers and these have all deserted him.

This leaves two incumbents out of the race but I believe the other two incumbents are safe.

Fianna Fáil TD John Curran should be able to hold his seat although it will be difficult. The Fianna Fáil vote in 2009 was 16.39% which is somewhere off the quota of 20%. However, it’s believed that he has a strong personal vote so if he runs by himself then he should be able to top the poll near 20%. Even if he’s below quota, a small stream of transfers will push him over the line.

Labour TD Joanna Tuffy is also safe and the party will no doubt field a second candidate under their 2 seat strategy. Tuffy and her father are based in Lucan so I believe the party will run Clondalkin councillor Robert Dowds. Dowds topped the poll in 2009 with 1.10 of a quota.

However, Fine Gael will also run two candidates with a view to gaining two seats. Lucan councillor Derek Keating along with Senator Frances Fitzgerald will be chosen.

I think that Tuffy (Labour) and Keating (FG) will both win the second and third seats and the fourth and final seat will be a close fight between Dowds (Labour) and Fitzgerald (FG).

Looking at the local elections we see that Fine Gael won 28% of the vote and Labour only 19%. This would suggest that Fine Gael will easily take two seats however I feel that it will be much closer. Labour is very popular for transfers from other left-wing parties and this will give them crucial help. Sinn Féin, People Before Profit and the Green Party are all prominent in the area and their transfers will go mainly to Labour.

It’s a constituency worth watching. If Labour can win two then it’s likely that they’re doing very well nationwide. They’ve a long way to go however, so for now I’m giving the fourth seat to Fine Gael.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Derek Keating and Frances Fitzgerald
1 Fianna Fáil – John Curran
1 Labour – Joanna Tuffy

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Labour
1 Independent

Analysis

Dublin Central is a four seat constituency situated north of the River Liffey. It is the constituency of former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and of the late Independent TD Tony Gregory. In 2009 fellow independent Maureen O’Sullivan was elected in the bye-election that followed Gregory’s death.

Fianna Fáil has held two seats here since 1997 however there is no chance of them retaining both seats in 2012. In 1992 Fianna Fáil didn’t take two seats due to the surge in Labour’s vote. I believe the same will occur again. Bertie Ahern is unlikely to run again which will damage the Fianna Fáil vote.

The incumbent TD is Cyprian Brady however his main source of votes came from Bertie Ahern’s transfers after he himself only received 939 first preference votes in 2007. I doubt whether he would be able to gain a seat by himself and I believe that Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick will join him on the ticket. Even with severe damage to the Fianna Fáil vote she topped the poll in Cabra-Glasnevin last year, being elected on the first count. If she makes it onto the ballot paper then she will take Brady’s seat.

Fine Gael is in a strong position to take a seat here in 2012. Senator Paschal Donohoe polled 22.66% in the bye-election and even if his vote were to drop into the mid-teens, he will have enough transfers to take a seat. The late Jim Mitchell (brother of MEP Gay Mitchell) last won a seat for Fine Gael here in 1997 with 14.5% of the vote.

2 seats will be taken by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil which leaves two remaining. I predict the one will go to Labour and that the other will go to Maureen O’Sullivan.

O’Sullivan doesn’t have the name Gregory had, but that didn’t stop 26% of the electorate giving her their first-preference vote in 2009. O’Sullivan’s vote will drop into the mid-teens when the general election comes around but I believe there’s a core Gregory vote that will go to her and this, with transfers will help her keep her seat.

Labour is looking for two seats here and it has to be said that they are in a good position to do so however I think that they will fall short in the end. Their local vote was 22.93% and they need to get above 30% if they want any shot at a second seat. I think Aine Clancy will join Joe Costello on the ticket.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Paschal Donohoe
1 Fianna Fáil – Mary Fitzpatrick
1 Labour – Joe Costello
1 Independent – Maureen O’Sullivan

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

Donegal South West, like its North Easterly neighbour is also a Fianna Fáil stronghold. Since 1981 the party has held two seats with the exception of 1997 when Pat Gallagher didn’t contest the election due to his position as an MEP. Independent Tom Gildea was elected instead.

So, for nearly 30 years the make up of this constituency hasn’t changed at all! Dinny McGinley has represented Fine Gael here since 1982, Pat Gallagher since 1981 and although Tánaiste Mary Coughlan has only been a TD since 1987, the family name Coughlan has held a seat in Donegal since 1980. This constituency is going to see big changes in 2012.

The main shock is that Fianna Fáil won’t hold both their seats. The party has never polled less than 40% in the constituency but in last years local elections they polled a miserable 29%. Pat Gallagher vacated his seat last year when he became MEP for Ireland North West. This leaves Mary Coughlan as the only Fianna Fáil TD and her high profile as Tánaiste will easily see her retain her seat in 2012.

I think it would be foolish for Pat Gallagher to contest his seat again so I think he’ll play it safe by staying in Brussels. Instead I think that young Senator Brian O Domhnaill will join Coughlan on the ticket in 2012. He’s only 32 years old and he’s likely to take a seat sometime in his lifetime if he stays in politics. He has no chance of winning a seat but he’ll get experience contesting this next election. His transfers will also prove crucial if Coughlan needs them.

Fine Gael will also see big changes because Dinny McGinley is unlikely to contest the next general election. McGinley had intended to retire before 2007 however he came back in fear that the seat would be lost to Sinn Féin. Now that Cllr Barry O’Neill has been selected as the Bye-Election candidate, and presumably his successor, McGinley can now retire knowing that the FG seat is safe. The party polled over 25% in the local elections which is a nice round quota for O’Neill when the General Election is called. I don’t see Fine Gael taking a second seat, especially when Fianna Fáil has a higher vote than them.

The final seat will be the biggest surprise because I believe that Sinn Féin will take it. Senator Pearse Doherty is gaining a lot of publicity over his high court challenge against the government over the Donegal South West Bye-Election. The young Senator polled 21% in 2007 so he only needs to take 4% of the vote off Fianna Fáil to get himself a quota. Although Sinn Féin only polled 17% in last years locals this is up from the party’s 2004 local election result. Even if he can’t get a quota, Labour’s transfers will give him the votes he needs.

And NO, Labour do not have a seat here. Frank McBrearty Jnr. will run in 2012 but he won’t get very far. Labour only polled 8% in 2009 and McBrearty was their only elected councillor.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Barry O’Neil
1 Fianna Fáil – Mary Coughlan
1 Sinn Féin – Pearse Doherty

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

The 3-seat constituency of Donegal North East is the most northernly in the country. It is a republican stronghold that has never had less than two Fianna Fáil or Independent Fianna Fáil TDs. In 2002 the party held all 3 seats! Fine Gael had always held the third seat and in 2007 newly elected TD Joe McHugh reclaimed it.

2012 will prove to be a huge shake up in Donegal politics because my prediction is that Fianna Fáil will not hold both their seats here. In the 2009 local elections Fianna Fáil only received 36.7% of the vote. Even if they can break 40% they will be starved of transfers and this will mean the loss of one of their seats. The big question is who will lose out. The two incumbent TDs are Dr. Jim McDaid and Niall Blaney. Both don’t hold any ministerial positions and this will give both TDs plenty of time to canvass locally and win support. There’s no way of predicting who will take the seat.

Fine Gael is almost certain to retain its seat but there’s no chance of a second. The party’s local vote was 29% and this is nearly 8% less than Fianna Fáil’s vote. If anyone is to take two seats it’ll be Fianna Fáil not Fine Gael. Joe McHugh will take the seat.

Labour has recently recruited former Independent candidate Jimmy Harte to run for them in 2012. However Gilmore’s prediction of a Labour seat in every constituency won’t hold true here. Even during the Spring Tide of 1992 the party only managed a vote of 11%. In last year’s locals the Labour vote was 4.5%, although this was before Jimmy Harte joined.

I believe that Sinn Féin’s Padraig MacLochlainn will take the third seat. Padraig was only 600 votes away from taking a seat in 2007 and while the party’s vote has remained stagnant, the drop in Fianna Fáil’s vote will allow MacLochlainn to overtake one of the Fianna Fáil TDs and take the third seat.

2012 Prediction

1 Fine Gael – Joe McHugh
1 Fianna Fáil – Dr Jim McDaid or Niall Blaney
1 Sinn Féin – Padraig MacLochlainn

Link: 2007 results

1 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cork South West is a large 3 seat constituency that is the most southern in Ireland. It covers the Local Electoral Areas of Bantry, Skibbereen and Bandon and it was first contested in 1961. Labour held a seat here from 1961 to 1981 however they have not held a seat here since. Fianna Fáil has always held one seat here except in 2002 when they capitalised on the Fine Gael meltdown by taking a second seat. Fine Gael has always had two seats here with the exception of 2002 and before 1981 when Labour held a seat.

Fianna Fáil’s vote in 2007 was 42% and yet they only won one seat. This means that even if their 2009 local vote of 30% is replicated in a General Election they will easily retain the seat held by new TD Christy O’Sullivan. In fact, if there is no running mate then O’Sullivan will quite easily top the poll. This is unlikely however and we’ll probably see Senator Denis O’Donovan join O’Sullivan on the ticket in 2012. O’Donovan will provide the transfers to get O’Sullivan over the line.

Senator Michael McCarthy will almost certainly represent Labour on the ticket again in 2012 and if Eamon Gilmore’s optimism is anything to go by Labour feels that they can win a seat here again. I’m afraid this won’t happen. While McCarthy polled an impressive 9.64% in 2007, the Labour party itself only polled 9% in last year’s local elections. And if we look at the Spring Tide of 1992 the party only managed to win 11% of the vote. For Labour to have any chance of taking a seat off one of the two sitting Fine Gael TDs McCarthy will have to out poll at least one of them. This requires a vote of about 18%, a doubling of McCarthy’s vote, something that is highly unlikely.

Fine Gael already has two seats in the constituency and it’s more than likely that they will retain both their seats. Fine Gael polled only 36% in 2007, yet they managed two seats. In 2009 their vote in the constituency was 42%, an almost guarantee of two seats in 2012.

The main question is whether the two incumbent TDs will contest again. Jim O’Keeffe and P.J. Sheehan have represented this constituency since 1977 and 1981 respectively. O’Keeffe will be 71 years old in 2012 and Sheehan will be 79! Either way, whoever runs on the Fine Gael ticket will be ensured a seat.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – P.J. Sheehan and Jim O’Keeffe or new local councillors
1 Fianna Fáil – Christy O’Sullivan