David Higgins

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cork North West is a large 3 seat constituency that is very rural and therefore difficult to canvass. First established in 1981 it has only ever returned TDs from Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Historically Fine Gael would always return 2 seats while Fianna Fáil only ever managed one. However since Bertie Ahern’s victory in the 1997 general election Fianna Fáil have retained 2 out of 3 seats here.

Since 1997 the Fianna Fáil vote has risen steadily. 46% in 1997, 50% in 2002 and 53% in 2007. However we know that since 2007 the Fianna Fáil vote has dropped significantly nationwide, hitting a low of 17% in recent times. While this drop is not proportional in every constituency it’s almost certain that a drop of around 10% has been seen in Cork North West. Even if Fianna Fáil can manage to get 45% of the vote in 2012 they won’t hold both seats.

Throughout the 80′s Fianna Fáil would always win around 45% of the vote but they would never win 2 seats. Even if Fine Gael had less of a vote, PD or Labour transfers always helped a second Fine Gael candidate win a seat.

With Fianna Fáil set to lose one seat it will be very interesting to see which TD loses out. Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation Batt O’Keeffe is a TD here and in 2007 he received 2000 votes less than his constituency colleague Michael Moynihan. Batt decided to run here for the first time after boundary changes forced him out of Cork South Central. For a new candidate he did surprisingly well and he unseated the incumbent TD Donal Moynihan. I think now that he is settled in the constituency and the fact that he is a cabinet minister should help him catch up with Michael Moynihan and retain his seat.

As mentioned Cork North West has always been Fine Gael heartland and there’s no doubt in my mind that Fine Gael will win back a second seat here in 2012. Fine Gael polled 38% here in 2007 and opinion polls now put the party at roughly 5% higher nationwide. Much of this rise has been seen in rural areas as opposed to urban, therefore I estimate the Fine Gael vote to be somewhere around 45%, maybe even higher. Incumbent TD Michael Creed is sure to retain his seat and I’ve no doubt that Cllr Gerard Murphy will be chosen again to run alongside Creed. If Fine Gael doesn’t break 50% then Labour transfers will ensure 2 Fine Gael TDs.

Many would see this as a constituency for Labour to win a seat however I doubt this very much. Even during the Spring Tide of 1992 Bill Cashin only received 14% of the vote when 25% is the quota in a 3 seat constituency. Labour will probably run Martin Coughlan in 2012 however having only won 5% of the vote in 2007 he would need to at least quadruple his vote to be within any chance of a seat. This is unlikely to happen in such a rural constituency when most of Labour’s recent gains have been made in urban areas.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Michael Creed and Gerard Murphy
1 Fianna Fáil – Batt O’Keefe

Upset Predictions

The only upset would be for Batt O’Keefe to lose his seat. Michael Moynihan has all day to canvass and leaflet drop the constituency while Batt is tied up in Dublin with his ministerial duties. If Moynihan can work like a Trojan to get his name out then maybe he has a chance but otherwise O’Keefe’s ministerial profile will help him retain his seat.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork North Central, like it’s neighbouring constituency of Cork East, will prove to be a tightly fought constituency in 2012. However, this will not be a case of opposition vs government candidates but rather a fight between Labour and Fine Gael for the forth and final seat.

Fianna Fáil has no hope of retaining its two seats in Cork North Central but it will probably hold one seat. In 2007 Billy Kelleher had a significant lead over his party colleague Noel O’Flynn. Kelleher served as Minister of State for Labour Affairs from 2007-2009 and he is now Minister of State for Trade and Commerce. This gives his profile a boost and I predict that on the day he will poll well and the elimination of O’Flynn will give him the transfers he needs to retain his seat. In the 2009 local elections Fianna Fáil’s vote was at 20%, just enough for one seat with strong internal transfers.

Fine Gael is certain to return Bernard Allen to the Dáil and it’s likely that Cllr Gerry Kelly will join him on the ticket in 2012. Both candidates are well positioned in the constituency with Allen based in the city and Kelly based in Blarney.

The problem for Fine Gael is that their vote has not moved significantly since 2007, it has remained around 27%-29%. A vote above 30% is required for 2 seats and it will require a lot of hard work on the ground to achieve this.

What may be of optimism to Fine Gael is that this constituency is to gain a large chunk of land from the Mallow electoral area. In this ward Fine Gael received 39% of the vote in 2009. A rough estimate including this area brings their total vote to almost 29% across the constituency in the 2009 local elections.

Labour’s Kathleen Lynch will certainly retain her seat in 2012 and I’ve no doubt that Cllr John Gilroy from Blarney will join her on the ticket under Labour’s 2 seat strategy. He topped the poll in his LEA with 1.20 of a quota and 4,538 first preference votes. Like Fine Gael, Labour is well placed with one candidate in the city (Lynch) and one in Blarney.

The question is which Blarney councillor will join their TDs in Leinster House: Gerry Kelly for Fine Gael or John Gilroy for Labour?

I think Fine Gael will take the last seat by a small margin.

Many would point to other left-wing parties in the constituency as being a source of Labour transfers. Sinn Féin, The Workers Party and the Socialist Party are all prominent in the city however it’s not completely true that they will transfer solely to Labour.

In 2007 Labour received 27% of transfers while Fine Gael received 25%. If Fine Gael can get 30%+ in 2012 and still be favourable for transfers then they will easily beat Labour.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – Bernard Allen and Gerry Kelly
1 Fianna Fáil – Billy Kelleher
1 Labour – Kathleen Lynch

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin from Cork. The extra profile for the county leads to a return of support.

3. Fianna Fáil loses both. 2 for Labour and Fine Gael: A double dip recession, further cuts, higher taxes and a surge in unemployment could send their vote lower and then this situation becomes a reality.

4. Left-Wing TD: In 2009, Sinn Féin, Socialists and The Workers Party had a combined vote of 17% the locals. With strong transfers Sinn Féin’s Cllr Jonathan O’Brien or The Socialist Party’s Cllr Mick Barry could take a seat.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork East will prove to be a pivotal constituency in the 2012 general election. The forth and final seat will be a contest between the three big parties and the winner will likely be the overall victor in the national election.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour will each retain one seat in this constituency. Labour’s Sean Sherlock will keep his seat however it’s unclear who will be safe from Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.

Since 1982 this constituency has returned both Michael Ahern and Ned O’Keeffe from Fianna Fáil. Their votes are often close together and in 2007 their votes were less than 300 votes apart. A flip of a coin would be a better judge on who loses out if Fianna Fáil’s vote stays as low as it is. Both TDs have no ministerial positions so it’ll be interesting to see who can win over local votes in the coming months. (They were both junior ministers before)

Fine Gael has two prominent politicians in the constituency: sitting TD and newly appointed front bench member David Stanton and former TD, future husband of Lucinda Creighton and current Senator Paul Bradford. In 1997 they both held seats and in 2002 and 2007 Paul Bradford received more 1st preference votes but David Stanton got the seat on transfers. Stanton’s new role as Defence spokesman increases his profile ever so slightly and this probably puts his support in line with Senator Bradford’s. Once again, too close to call.

As mentioned, the last seat will be tightly fought but I predict that Fine Gael will take the seat.

Looking at the 2009 local elections it shows Fianna Fáil at 20%, Labour at 15% and Fine Gael at 33%. Fianna Fáil’s vote is always below it’s national average in this constituency so Fianna Fáil would have to recover to 40%+ nationwide for 2 seats to ever be imaginable here.

Many would see this as a place for Labour to gain a seat however I dismiss this prediction. Labour has a young TD to take home one seat but he has no clear running mate to win widespread support and Labour needs to break past 30% nationwide for this to happen.

Fine Gael is better placed with two candidates who have a presence in the constituency for over 15 years.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – David Stanton and Paul Bradford
1 Fianna Fáil – Michael Ahern or Ned O’Keeffe
1 Labour – Sean Sherlock

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism. Labour also brings in a celebrity running mate.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin from Cork. The extra profile for the county leads to a return of support.

3. Fianna Fáil loses both. 2 for Labour and Fine Gael: A double dip recession, further cuts, higher taxes and a surge in unemployment could send their vote lower and then this situation becomes a reality. In Midleton the Fianna Fáil vote dropped to 15% last year. If the same drop occurs across the constituency then anything’s possible.

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael

Analysis

Clare is one of Ireland’s oldest constituencies, established for the 2nd Dáil in 1921. Until 1959 it was the constituency of Eamon De Valera and former president Patrick Hillary was a TDs here also. During the Spring Tide of 1992 this constituency caused a huge surprise by electing Ireland’s first Muslim TD Moosajee Bhamjee from Labour. He was elected with the slogan “You’ve had all the cowboys, now try an Indian”.

Bhamjee achieved this with a 11.46% vote for Labour and with a large chunk of transfers from Fine Gael who only held one seat out of four seats in 1992. Bhamjee didn’t run in 1997 and the Labour vote dropped to 3%, proving that the vote was primarily a personal one. Labour won 3% in 2002 and then their vote dropped to 1.5% in 2007. Eamon GIlmore’s leadership of the party only helped them achieve 4% of votes in the 2009 local elections although it must be noted that Labour only ran in half of the county’s LEAs. Therefore I estimate their vote at around 8% when you consider their recent rise in popularity.

An optimistic Labour man will tell you that 11% is achievable again and that they can win a seat with this vote. I believe that they won’t. Even if they go above 10% they won’t have enough transfers and many of their recent candidates have been unknown people. It’s only possible if they bring in a high profile candidate such as former independent TD James Breen. Breen is described as “left-wing” and he is still a councillor for Ennis West achieving 1.5 of a quota in 2009. He narrowly missed out at retaining his seat in 2007, losing to a second Fine Gael seat. If Labour can recruit him they have a seat, otherwise no.

Fine Gael polled 35% in 2007, winning 2 seats and in 2009 they polled 34% in the local elections making them the largest party on the county council for the first time in history. Fine Gael is certain to retain both it seats in 2012.

Fianna Fáil has always been strong in Clare. In 1997 they won 3/4 seats and in 2002 and 2007 their vote always ran above their national average. In 2009 they polled 35% and with Tony Killeen being the new Minister for Defence Fianna Fáil should also retain their two seats in 2012.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – Timmy Dooley and Tony Killeen
2 Fine Gael – Pat Breen and Joe Carey

Upset Prediction

As mentioned above, either Labour or an independent has a shot at one of the Fianna Fáil seats.

Link: 2007 results

1 Ceann Comhairle
2 Fianna Fáil
1 Sinn Féin
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

Cavan-Monaghan was established in 1977 and being a border constituency it has often voted republican. Fianna Fáil has often returned 3/5 seats and in 1981 the hunger striker Kieran Doherty was elected as an independent with the Anti H-Block group. In 1997 Sinn Féin’s Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin was elected on the first count and he cruised into the first seat in 2002 and 2007. I have no doubt that he will bring home one seat for Sinn Féin in 2012.

As mentioned this is a strong constituency for Fianna Fáil and they have always polled well, sometimes breaking the 50% barrier. In 2007 they polled 37% which was below their national average and they won 2 seats: Brendan Smith, Agriculture Minister from Cavan and Margaret Conlon newly elected TD from county Monaghan.

Cavan-Monaghan was a 4 seat constituency in 2007 because of the Ceann Comhairle Rory O’Hanlon, father of the well known comedian Ardal O’Hanlon, best known for his role as Father Dougal McGuire in Father Ted.

Cavan-Monaghan will be fought as a 5 seater in 2012 and therefore I predict that Fianna Fáil will hold both thier seats. The party polled 29% in Monaghan and 35% in Cavan in the local elections in 2009 and although their vote has dropped significantly nationwide, they are well placed to scrape in with their incumbents here.

Fine Gael is almost certain to take two seats here in 2012 due to the opening up of a 5th seat plus the rise in Fine Gael’s vote. The incumbent TD Seymour Crawford will retain his seat and he will likely bring in Senator Joe O’Reilly who narrowly missed out on the last seat in 2007.

Even during the Spring Tide of 1992 Labour did not gain a seat here and I don’t believe any Gilmore Gale will help them either. A lack of party infrastructure and not one single councillor in any of the two counties means that they will only serve as transfers to Fine Gael.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – Brendan Smith and Margaret Conlon
2 Fine Gael – Seymour Crawford and Joe O’Reilly
1 Sinn Féin – Caoimhghin O Caolain

Upset Prediction

Looking at the 2009 local elections, Fine Gael polled an impressive 45.64% in Cavan and 29.85% in Monaghan. This puts them at roughly 38% across the constituency. If they can boost their vote in Monaghan into the 40% range, like Cavan, then they are in the running for a 3rd seat. As mentioned, the Labour candidate will almost certainly be eliminated and this will provide a large chunk of transfers that I believe will go almost exclusively to Fine Gael.

It’s also less likely, but possible, that the elimination of a 3rd Fine Gael candidate could provide the sufficient transfers to help a Labour candidate over the line. Of course, it all depends on who they run. Labour won’t get anywhere without a strong team of canvassers and a high profile candidate across both counties.

This upset will only happen if Fianna Fáil’s vote drops further below 30% and if one of the two incumbents has a significantly higher vote than the other. In 2007 Brendan Smith polled over 50% higher than Margaret Conlon so it’s possible although it must be noted that Fianna Fáil’s vote has dropped the most in Cavan therefore I see both TDs votes being closer together in 2012.

Link: 2007 results

3 Fianna Fáil
1 Green Party
1 Fine Gael

Analysis

This 5 seat constituency is a Fianna Fáil stronghold. 47% of the vote gave them three safe seats in 2007 with two TDs elected on the first count. Since the establishment of the constituency in 1948 Fianna Fáil’s vote has never dropped below 40% and it is often in the high 40’s or even over 50%, as was seen in 2002, giving them 3 out of 4 seats when the Ceann Comhairle Seamus Pattison was automatically elected to the first seat. It’s for these reasons that Fianna Fáil will probably return 2 seats to Carlow-Kilkenny in 2012.

The Green Party will not retain their seat here next time. Mary White only received 8% of the vote last time with transfers helping her over the line. The Green Party, like Fianna Fáil will be starved of transfers next time and this will ensure the loss of Mary White’s seat. The most recent opinion polls have the Greens at 2% nationwide.

From 1961-2002 Labour had a seat in this constituency and their recent boost in the polls means that they will secure at least one seat in 2012. The locals in 2009 showed their support in both counties at around 18%, more than enough for a seat. 16.6% is the quota in a 5 seat constituency.

Fine Gael made a mess of their campaign here in 2007. With a vote of 30% they failed to elect 2 TDs even though they only needed an extra 3% in transfers. As a result of bad management the young Senator John Paul Phelan lost out to Mary White of the Greens. However, recent opinion polls have Fine Gael polling at 33% nationwide therefore 2 seats will be very manageable in 2012.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward
2 Fine Gael – Big Phil Hogan and John Paul Phelan
1 Labour – Whoever they choose will get a seat.

Upset Prediction

The local elections showed Fine Gael polling at 39% which is above their national poll. If Fine Gael can break into the 40%+ range then they have a shot at a third seat. However, this depends on a further drop in Fianna Fáil support and a split of their vote on election day. It would also require transfers from many other opposition parties.

It’s also possible for Labour to take a second seat. In 1992, during the Spring Tide, Seamus Pattison received 1.48 of a quota with no running mate to transfer too. 2 seats for Labour or 3 seats for Fine Gael is not impossible.

Watching RTÉ’s “The Frontline” this week it became clear the huge differences that lie between The Greens and Fianna Fáil. Councillors shouting at each other over issues such as planning and the banks showed the cracks that lie within the government. It also highlights how incompatible the two parties are and all you have to do is look at the Green’s “shopping list” for the Programme for Government. They wanted Education cuts reversed, social welfare levels maintained and a drastic reduction in the number of TD’s along with more reforms in local government. Did any of this happen, NO!

The differences that lie between FF and The Greens makes me think about the likelihood of a Fine Gael/Labour co-alition. The is the right-left alternative that is likely after the next General Election however these two parties are just as incompatible as the present co-alition.

Labour will not budge on public sector cuts while Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar has made it clear that cuts have to be made in wages of public servants.

There is also a lack of consensus on the banks too. Fine Gael has its “Good Bank” plan while Labour wants temporary nationalisation of the banks. Now maybe the establishment of NAMA will end this issue but it’s still likely to be a contentious issue around a FG/Lab cabinet table.

Many will point to the present co-alition and say that it works to have two fundamentally different parties in government however the two situations are not the same. FF has 76 TD’s while the Greens only have 6. They hold the balance of power but their influence is restrained by those numbers. My fear is that disagreements in a FG/Lab
co-alition would bring down the government within a matter of weeks.

FG will get over 70 seats next General Election and Labour could get anything up to 30 based on current opinion polls. This puts Labour in a much better bargaining position than the Greens currently have with Fianna Fáil.

So, what is the ideal co-alition? Well, Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil actually! Not only would this see an end to civil-war politics in this country but it would eventually see the fall of the Fianna Fáil party I believe. The small party in government always gets screwed. We saw it with the PDs, we’re about to see it with the Greens and after going into bed with FF and FG in the 90′s, Labour’s Spring Tide was reduced to a mere wave in 1997.

A FG/FF co-alition would highlight the fact that FF is not needed. After one term, if the economy is back on track FG would get most of the praise at the expense of FF. Likewise such a co-alition would expose the left in Ireland and it would lead to the Labour party becoming the main opposition part in Ireland. I think it’s time we had a proper left-right divide in this country instead of the on-off centre right switching game between FG and FF.

Let’s unite the right and expose the populist, no cuts approach taken by Labour, Sinn Féin, The Socialists and other non-pragmatic left parties.

I believe the upcoming budget will eat further into the FF core vote and it could push their opinion polls standing down to under 15%. If this were to be replicated in a general election then FF could find itself with only 25 or so seats, less than what Labour will get, soaring FF to third place in the parties race. They’ve held first place since the foundation of the state. This fall in support could go FG’s way to push it over the 83 seats required for an overall majority however I’m doubtful about whether that will materialise. Labour’s unwavering support for maintaining wages will go down well with the electorate and if they can continue to play populism in their favour then many of the FF seats could swing their way.

So, in the next General Election FG could find themselves just shy of the 83. Labour with well over 30 seats and FF somewhere in the 20s. Independents could support FG but the likes of Maureen O’Sullivan, Finian McGrath and Michael Lowry would not be jumping to support a FG government characterised by cuts unless there were financial injections to their respective constituencies, something this country cannot afford!

Anyway, there won’t be another chance to topple this government until after the budget. We’ll have to wait until then to see how public opinion swings during what will be the coldest winter of discontent this country has ever known.

Fine Gael party leader Enda Kenny today made it clear that an overall FG majority was not to be ruled out. The comments were made at the party’s annual think-in in Cavan. Fine Gael have never had an overall majority and they have always relied on forming a co-alition with Labour.

While the party is set to become the largest party in Ireland, surpassing Fianna Fáil’s number of Dáil seats for the first time it’d be a miracle to get more than 83 seats in the 166 seater Dáil. Fine Gael currently have 51 seats.

Fine Gael will get its largest number of seats ever, and Fianna Fáil its lowest. Under normal circumstances this statement would imply a FG majority however there is one group of politicians that will see the largest rise in support in the next general election: the left.

Labour, People Before Profit, The Socialist Party and Sinn Féin will all be out in force next election and they’re all due to take Dáil seats. Labour could get around 30 seats, up from 20, PBP will get at least one seat, maybe 2. The socialist party should get two seats, and Sinn Féin is looking to get 7-10 seats, up from 4. Altogether left-wing parties will get around 40+ seats in the next Dáil based on current polls.

However should Fine Gael actually get over 83 seats then this must go hand in hand with a Labour or Sinn Féin increase. This would probably put the left vote anywhere up to 50 seats.

Independents could get up to 10 seats however a more realistic approach says they’ll get around 5.

So let’s say that Fine Gael get a safe 85 seats in the next election. Add that to the 55 seats mentioned above and you have 140 of the seats filled. Only 26 seats left for Fianna Fáil?

On 17% of the vote FF statistically have 28 seats however it’s certain that they’ll get more. Fianna Fáil is the party of power and it won’t be giving up that title too easily. They always get more seats than their % vote suggests. If we look at the 2002 general election we see that FF got 41% of the vote. Multiply this by 1.66 (dail seats equation) and you get roughly 69 seats. However in 2002 Fianna Fáil got 81 seats!

So, it’s fair to say that unless there is another erosion in the seemingly endless ‘core’ FF vote then we won’t see them on less than 35 seats or so.

At present there is scope for a FG minority government however who would support them? PBP, socialists and Sinn Féin are all radicals so that’s 10 votes immediately out of consideration. This only leaves independents and many of them would come under serious fire for supporting more cuts that FG will have to make in government. This is unworkable for them even if there would be a financial benefit for his or her constituency (The Jackie Healey-Rae method).

So until such time as support is there for Fine Gael, themselves and Labour better get used to each other and maybe try and find consensus on issues such as banking.

One upside of the presumed co-alition is that it will be the first co-alition to exceed 100 seats. This is well above the 83 requirement and it will, in 5 consecutive years set another record.

Fine Gael’s second term in a row