Cork North Central
2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour
Analysis
Cork North Central, like it’s neighbouring constituency of Cork East, will prove to be a tightly fought constituency in 2012. However, this will not be a case of opposition vs government candidates but rather a fight between Labour and Fine Gael for the forth and final seat.
Fianna Fáil has no hope of retaining its two seats in Cork North Central but it will probably hold one seat. In 2007 Billy Kelleher had a significant lead over his party colleague Noel O’Flynn. Kelleher served as Minister of State for Labour Affairs from 2007-2009 and he is now Minister of State for Trade and Commerce. This gives his profile a boost and I predict that on the day he will poll well and the elimination of O’Flynn will give him the transfers he needs to retain his seat. In the 2009 local elections Fianna Fáil’s vote was at 20%, just enough for one seat with strong internal transfers.
Fine Gael is certain to return Bernard Allen to the Dáil and it’s likely that Cllr Gerry Kelly will join him on the ticket in 2012. Both candidates are well positioned in the constituency with Allen based in the city and Kelly based in Blarney.
The problem for Fine Gael is that their vote has not moved significantly since 2007, it has remained around 27%-29%. A vote above 30% is required for 2 seats and it will require a lot of hard work on the ground to achieve this.
What may be of optimism to Fine Gael is that this constituency is to gain a large chunk of land from the Mallow electoral area. In this ward Fine Gael received 39% of the vote in 2009. A rough estimate including this area brings their total vote to almost 29% across the constituency in the 2009 local elections.
Labour’s Kathleen Lynch will certainly retain her seat in 2012 and I’ve no doubt that Cllr John Gilroy from Blarney will join her on the ticket under Labour’s 2 seat strategy. He topped the poll in his LEA with 1.20 of a quota and 4,538 first preference votes. Like Fine Gael, Labour is well placed with one candidate in the city (Lynch) and one in Blarney.
The question is which Blarney councillor will join their TDs in Leinster House: Gerry Kelly for Fine Gael or John Gilroy for Labour?
I think Fine Gael will take the last seat by a small margin.
Many would point to other left-wing parties in the constituency as being a source of Labour transfers. Sinn Féin, The Workers Party and the Socialist Party are all prominent in the city however it’s not completely true that they will transfer solely to Labour.
In 2007 Labour received 27% of transfers while Fine Gael received 25%. If Fine Gael can get 30%+ in 2012 and still be favourable for transfers then they will easily beat Labour.
2012 Prediction
2 Fine Gael – Bernard Allen and Gerry Kelly
1 Fianna Fáil – Billy Kelleher
1 Labour – Kathleen Lynch
Upset Predictions
1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism.
2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin from Cork. The extra profile for the county leads to a return of support.
3. Fianna Fáil loses both. 2 for Labour and Fine Gael: A double dip recession, further cuts, higher taxes and a surge in unemployment could send their vote lower and then this situation becomes a reality.
4. Left-Wing TD: In 2009, Sinn Féin, Socialists and The Workers Party had a combined vote of 17% the locals. With strong transfers Sinn Féin’s Cllr Jonathan O’Brien or The Socialist Party’s Cllr Mick Barry could take a seat.