David Higgins

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
1 Fine Gael
1 Labour

Analysis

Cork East will prove to be a pivotal constituency in the 2012 general election. The forth and final seat will be a contest between the three big parties and the winner will likely be the overall victor in the national election.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour will each retain one seat in this constituency. Labour’s Sean Sherlock will keep his seat however it’s unclear who will be safe from Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.

Since 1982 this constituency has returned both Michael Ahern and Ned O’Keeffe from Fianna Fáil. Their votes are often close together and in 2007 their votes were less than 300 votes apart. A flip of a coin would be a better judge on who loses out if Fianna Fáil’s vote stays as low as it is. Both TDs have no ministerial positions so it’ll be interesting to see who can win over local votes in the coming months. (They were both junior ministers before)

Fine Gael has two prominent politicians in the constituency: sitting TD and newly appointed front bench member David Stanton and former TD, future husband of Lucinda Creighton and current Senator Paul Bradford. In 1997 they both held seats and in 2002 and 2007 Paul Bradford received more 1st preference votes but David Stanton got the seat on transfers. Stanton’s new role as Defence spokesman increases his profile ever so slightly and this probably puts his support in line with Senator Bradford’s. Once again, too close to call.

As mentioned, the last seat will be tightly fought but I predict that Fine Gael will take the seat.

Looking at the 2009 local elections it shows Fianna Fáil at 20%, Labour at 15% and Fine Gael at 33%. Fianna Fáil’s vote is always below it’s national average in this constituency so Fianna Fáil would have to recover to 40%+ nationwide for 2 seats to ever be imaginable here.

Many would see this as a place for Labour to gain a seat however I dismiss this prediction. Labour has a young TD to take home one seat but he has no clear running mate to win widespread support and Labour needs to break past 30% nationwide for this to happen.

Fine Gael is better placed with two candidates who have a presence in the constituency for over 15 years.

2012 Prediction

2 Fine Gael – David Stanton and Paul Bradford
1 Fianna Fáil – Michael Ahern or Ned O’Keeffe
1 Labour – Sean Sherlock

Upset Predictions

1. Labour wins second seat: Gilmore continues to win over public support and a raft of new policy documents featuring public sector reform pushes away media criticism. Labour also brings in a celebrity running mate.

2. Fianna Fáil holds 2 seats: Taking the “tough decisions” and having “turned the corner” Fianna Fáil’s fortunes return after a leadership heave. Brian Cowen is replaced with Michael Martin from Cork. The extra profile for the county leads to a return of support.

3. Fianna Fáil loses both. 2 for Labour and Fine Gael: A double dip recession, further cuts, higher taxes and a surge in unemployment could send their vote lower and then this situation becomes a reality. In Midleton the Fianna Fáil vote dropped to 15% last year. If the same drop occurs across the constituency then anything’s possible.