Clare
2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael
Analysis
Clare is one of Ireland’s oldest constituencies, established for the 2nd Dáil in 1921. Until 1959 it was the constituency of Eamon De Valera and former president Patrick Hillary was a TDs here also. During the Spring Tide of 1992 this constituency caused a huge surprise by electing Ireland’s first Muslim TD Moosajee Bhamjee from Labour. He was elected with the slogan “You’ve had all the cowboys, now try an Indian”.
Bhamjee achieved this with a 11.46% vote for Labour and with a large chunk of transfers from Fine Gael who only held one seat out of four seats in 1992. Bhamjee didn’t run in 1997 and the Labour vote dropped to 3%, proving that the vote was primarily a personal one. Labour won 3% in 2002 and then their vote dropped to 1.5% in 2007. Eamon GIlmore’s leadership of the party only helped them achieve 4% of votes in the 2009 local elections although it must be noted that Labour only ran in half of the county’s LEAs. Therefore I estimate their vote at around 8% when you consider their recent rise in popularity.
An optimistic Labour man will tell you that 11% is achievable again and that they can win a seat with this vote. I believe that they won’t. Even if they go above 10% they won’t have enough transfers and many of their recent candidates have been unknown people. It’s only possible if they bring in a high profile candidate such as former independent TD James Breen. Breen is described as “left-wing” and he is still a councillor for Ennis West achieving 1.5 of a quota in 2009. He narrowly missed out at retaining his seat in 2007, losing to a second Fine Gael seat. If Labour can recruit him they have a seat, otherwise no.
Fine Gael polled 35% in 2007, winning 2 seats and in 2009 they polled 34% in the local elections making them the largest party on the county council for the first time in history. Fine Gael is certain to retain both it seats in 2012.
Fianna Fáil has always been strong in Clare. In 1997 they won 3/4 seats and in 2002 and 2007 their vote always ran above their national average. In 2009 they polled 35% and with Tony Killeen being the new Minister for Defence Fianna Fáil should also retain their two seats in 2012.
2012 Prediction
2 Fianna Fáil – Timmy Dooley and Tony Killeen
2 Fine Gael – Pat Breen and Joe Carey
Upset Prediction
As mentioned above, either Labour or an independent has a shot at one of the Fianna Fáil seats.