David Higgins

I’m very pleased with the announcement of Fine Gael’s new frontbench today. Many of the talented TDs that opposed him have been retained in prominent positions, while those who got the chop have been replaced by a mixture of experienced and new TDs.

Sean Barrett – Foreign Affairs: It’s very welcome to see Barrett’s return to the frontbench. He served as minister for Defence during the Rainbow co-alition in the 1990s and he had originally announced his retirement in 2002. Having returned to his seat in Dun Laoghaire for the 2007 elections he has been very active in the party of late. He comes across very well and I was impressed at his performance on The Week in Politics last Sunday.

Richard Bruton – Enterprise, Jobs & Economic Planning (including public service reform): Fine Gael can’t win an election without Richard Bruton and it’s great to see his continuation in an economic portfolio. I feel this position is not a demotion for Richard but merely a move sideways. Richard was Minister for Enterprise and Employment during the Rainbow co-alition so he is very suited for this position. I’m also pleased he’s in a role that includes public service reform. It’s rumoured that Bruton produced an excellent proposal called “Smart State” before the leadership heave that included radical reforms of government departments and agencies such as the HSE. I hope his hard work continues.

Simon Coveney – Transport: In his previous role as energy, communications and natural resources spokesman Simon did some excellent work. Producing the NewERA plan he tied all the aspects of his role into one and he deserves great credit for developing this policy almost all on his own. If he can bring the same enthusiasm and energy into the area of transport then we should see some fantastic policy ideas over the coming months and years. It was wise of Kenny not to give him the chop as was rumoured over the past few days.

Michael Noonan – Finance: Noonan has the greatest ministerial service of any Fine Gael TD so he is very suited for the position as finance spokesman. During the Garret Fitzgerald government he served as Minister for Justice and as Minister for Industry and Commerce after a reshuffle. He then served as Minister for Health during the Rainbow co-alition. After Fianna Fáil regained power he took the opposition role of Finance. At every budget his speech was always well received and Noonan has always been regarded for his use of wit and humour. Even though he has been out of the front bench for 8 years I believe he is ready for a return to spotlight politics and he should prove to be a tough opponent of Brian Lenihan.

James Reilly – Deputy Leader & Health & Children: Dr Reilly was very vocal in his support for Enda Kenny during the leadership challenge and his loyalty has been rewarded with the Deputy Leader role. James is only in politics since 2007 so it’ll be interesting to see how he manages as the party’s number 2. I think Phil Hogan has more experience for the role and it was expected that he would get the job, however a need to maintain a large Fine Gael presence in Dublin was the main reason for giving Reilly the position. Reilly continues to be a superb health spokesman and I’ve no doubt he’ll make an excellent Minister too.

Alan Shatter – Justice & Law Reform: While my other local TD Olivia Mitchell has been left out of the frontbench it’s good to see Alan Shatter’s promotion to the role of Justice. Shatter has worked very hard in his role as spokesperson for children and throughout his past 25 years as a legislator and as a TD for Dublin South. I’ve no doubt that he’ll continue to scrutinise government policy and provide alternatives.

Leo Varadkar – Communications, Energy & Natural Resources: This is the appointment that I’m disappointed with. As I’ve mentioned the policies for this portfolio are outlined in NewERA and this leaves little work for Leo to do. Of course he’ll have a fun time sticking it to the Green Minister Eamon Ryan, however Kenny has missed an opportunity to give Leo a position where real policy reforms are yet to be developed. I would have much preferred Leo to be given the role as education spokesman. With respect to Fergus O’Dowd, who is an excellent politician, he is twice the age that Leo is and although he was previously a teacher himself, Leo would be much more in touch with the education system today.

However besides this appointment Kenny has unveiled a solid frontbench. The task now is to put the past to bed and to continue the pressure on the government over the next two years.

Here is the rest of the Frontbench:

• Enda Kenny – Leader
• Catherine Byrne – Older Citizens
• Deirdre Clune – Innovation & Research
• Jimmy Deenihan – Tourism, Culture & Sport
• Andrew Doyle – Agriculture, Fisheries & Food
• Frank Feighan – Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs
• Charlie Flanagan – Children
• Phil Hogan – Environment, Heritage & Local Government
• Paul Kehoe – Chief Whip (with responsibility for political reform)
• Fergus O’Dowd – Education & Skills
• John Perry – Small Business
• Michael Ring – Social Protection
• David Stanton – Defence

Link: 2007 results

2 Fianna Fáil
2 Fine Gael

Analysis

Clare is one of Ireland’s oldest constituencies, established for the 2nd Dáil in 1921. Until 1959 it was the constituency of Eamon De Valera and former president Patrick Hillary was a TDs here also. During the Spring Tide of 1992 this constituency caused a huge surprise by electing Ireland’s first Muslim TD Moosajee Bhamjee from Labour. He was elected with the slogan “You’ve had all the cowboys, now try an Indian”.

Bhamjee achieved this with a 11.46% vote for Labour and with a large chunk of transfers from Fine Gael who only held one seat out of four seats in 1992. Bhamjee didn’t run in 1997 and the Labour vote dropped to 3%, proving that the vote was primarily a personal one. Labour won 3% in 2002 and then their vote dropped to 1.5% in 2007. Eamon GIlmore’s leadership of the party only helped them achieve 4% of votes in the 2009 local elections although it must be noted that Labour only ran in half of the county’s LEAs. Therefore I estimate their vote at around 8% when you consider their recent rise in popularity.

An optimistic Labour man will tell you that 11% is achievable again and that they can win a seat with this vote. I believe that they won’t. Even if they go above 10% they won’t have enough transfers and many of their recent candidates have been unknown people. It’s only possible if they bring in a high profile candidate such as former independent TD James Breen. Breen is described as “left-wing” and he is still a councillor for Ennis West achieving 1.5 of a quota in 2009. He narrowly missed out at retaining his seat in 2007, losing to a second Fine Gael seat. If Labour can recruit him they have a seat, otherwise no.

Fine Gael polled 35% in 2007, winning 2 seats and in 2009 they polled 34% in the local elections making them the largest party on the county council for the first time in history. Fine Gael is certain to retain both it seats in 2012.

Fianna Fáil has always been strong in Clare. In 1997 they won 3/4 seats and in 2002 and 2007 their vote always ran above their national average. In 2009 they polled 35% and with Tony Killeen being the new Minister for Defence Fianna Fáil should also retain their two seats in 2012.

2012 Prediction

2 Fianna Fáil – Timmy Dooley and Tony Killeen
2 Fine Gael – Pat Breen and Joe Carey

Upset Prediction

As mentioned above, either Labour or an independent has a shot at one of the Fianna Fáil seats.