Carlow-Kilkenny
3 Fianna Fáil
1 Green Party
1 Fine Gael
Analysis
This 5 seat constituency is a Fianna Fáil stronghold. 47% of the vote gave them three safe seats in 2007 with two TDs elected on the first count. Since the establishment of the constituency in 1948 Fianna Fáil’s vote has never dropped below 40% and it is often in the high 40’s or even over 50%, as was seen in 2002, giving them 3 out of 4 seats when the Ceann Comhairle Seamus Pattison was automatically elected to the first seat. It’s for these reasons that Fianna Fáil will probably return 2 seats to Carlow-Kilkenny in 2012.
The Green Party will not retain their seat here next time. Mary White only received 8% of the vote last time with transfers helping her over the line. The Green Party, like Fianna Fáil will be starved of transfers next time and this will ensure the loss of Mary White’s seat. The most recent opinion polls have the Greens at 2% nationwide.
From 1961-2002 Labour had a seat in this constituency and their recent boost in the polls means that they will secure at least one seat in 2012. The locals in 2009 showed their support in both counties at around 18%, more than enough for a seat. 16.6% is the quota in a 5 seat constituency.
Fine Gael made a mess of their campaign here in 2007. With a vote of 30% they failed to elect 2 TDs even though they only needed an extra 3% in transfers. As a result of bad management the young Senator John Paul Phelan lost out to Mary White of the Greens. However, recent opinion polls have Fine Gael polling at 33% nationwide therefore 2 seats will be very manageable in 2012.
2012 Prediction
2 Fianna Fáil – John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward
2 Fine Gael – Big Phil Hogan and John Paul Phelan
1 Labour – Whoever they choose will get a seat.
Upset Prediction
The local elections showed Fine Gael polling at 39% which is above their national poll. If Fine Gael can break into the 40%+ range then they have a shot at a third seat. However, this depends on a further drop in Fianna Fáil support and a split of their vote on election day. It would also require transfers from many other opposition parties.
It’s also possible for Labour to take a second seat. In 1992, during the Spring Tide, Seamus Pattison received 1.48 of a quota with no running mate to transfer too. 2 seats for Labour or 3 seats for Fine Gael is not impossible.